Mid-Major Conferences, High-Major Headaches

The Mountain West did something questionable. With Boise State and Colorado State near the bubble, but generally seen to be on the right side of it, the conference rescheduled games involving each team.

Each lost.

All hope is not forsaken for the MWC in its attempt to put three teams in the field. For one thing, it’s fairly likely at least one of the two will reach the MWC’s championship game. For another, they’re both still in our updated bracketology (though Colorado State may yet wobble a bit in our model’s estimation, as their loss came last night and our model takes a day to fully react). But they are in the projected First Four now. And that’s not the best place to be.

Elsewhere, the Missouri Valley underwent the clumsy cancelation of Drake/Northern Iowa, which puts Drake through to the semifinals but robs the Bulldogs of what should have been a routine win, one that—with the team squarely upon the bubble—might prove to have been necessary should Drake, as expected, win its semifinal before losing to Loyola.

Our biggest movement this morning (no one rose or fell more than a seed line, so just in/out today):

Moving In: Louisiana Tech (auto-bid)

UAB beating North Texas and Old Dominion beating Western Kentucky shook up Conference USA. Louisiana Tech’s the new favorite there, and whatever slim hopes North Texas and WKU had of respective at-large bids are rather thoroughly dashed.

Moving out: North Texas (auto-bid)

Au revoir, Mean Green.

The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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