Let me start with the housekeeping, because there’s a headline going around. (I got a push notification!)
Today, the NCAA formally announced it will build its bracket based on its S-Curve, rather than by using geographic proximity. Which means that, because all the games will be in the same geographic area (Central-ish Indiana), the committee will not be measuring which schools are closest to Bloomington, and will instead be using a method where the bracketing wraps down the seed list: For two-seeds, the fifth overall seed will go with the fourth number one seed, the sixth overall will go with the third number one, the seventh will go with the second, the eighth will go with the first—then, the bracket will wrap back, with the ninth overall seed going with the first and eighth overall, the tenth going with the second and seventh, etc. Rematch considerations will remain in effect.
All of which means:
The bracketing is the exact same as it always is, except there’s no geography involved.
So for our purposes, nothing changed.
Moving Up: Florida State, Michigan
Today’s bracketology didn’t have as dramatic of movement as usual, because we just did this three days ago, rather than our previous seven-day cadence. But Florida State did jump three seed lines, clearing the bubble by demonstrating that they are, in fact, a good basketball team (105 points in 69 possessions is a massive total, even against a defense as mediocre as NC State’s).
We’ve also included Michigan here. Michigan did not jump a long way, but only because there was little room for them to rise. They were already a two-seed. So while their climb isn’t of a great magnitude, it’s of big significance. They’re officially in the thick of the Big Ten title race, boasting eleven overall wins, zero losses, and only one game decided by single digits (though Oakland did take them to overtime back in November). The Wolverines’ latest act was to thoroughly destruct the Wisconsin Badgers on Tuesday in Ann Arbor, a performance that vaulted them from the thick of that possible-one-seed tier to the front of it. Our model, which feeds off KenPom for individual game predictions, thinks Michigan is the regular season Big Ten favorite, though it does still have Iowa winning the plurality of tournament simulations.
So, some recognition for the Wolverines. Not overdue. Just emphatically earned.
Moving Down: Indiana, Arkansas, Stanford
The Big Ten always has something going on, which is a testament to their depth as a league, but also to their scheduling. As Kevin Pauga noted once (or more) on Twitter, the league does an incredible job of not having games overlap with one another, which means pretty much every night there’s a consequential Big Ten game going down. On Tuesday, it was Michigan/Wisconsin. Last night, it was Indiana/Purdue.
It was tight for much of the affair, but in the end, Purdue beat Indiana convincingly, and they did it in Bloomington, and the team Hoosiers were so excited about after they rocked Providence in Asheville is now 8-6 overall, with a best win over fellow bubble team Stanford. We didn’t program our model to make exceptions for teams with unsightly W-L records if the rest of their résumé holds up (we just don’t have the data to add that impactful of a line of code). But we have suspicions the committee might not like a .500 team, and Indiana’s median projection only puts them a game ahead of that (they’re currently projected to narrowly escape Rutgers in a Big Ten quarterfinal).
For Stanford, it was not a home loss last night, but it was a loss nonetheless, and a brutal one. For the résumé, it isn’t a big deal—losing on the road against Utah might be a Quadrant I result, and if it isn’t, it’ll certainly be in Quadrant II. But it gives us a lower impression of the Cardinal, who we should note might be underdogs in each of their next six games. The median projection for those six is a 2-4 record, with 3-3’s more common than 1-5’s in our sim’s. That’s a lot of room to worsen the situation.
And in Wednesday night’s entry, Arkansas failed to compete in Baton Rouge, losing their third of the last four, dropping below .500 in SEC play, and undoing the progress they made in future projections when they beat Georgia by thirty last weekend. The Pigs are set for slaughter.
Moving In: BYU, Oklahoma, Florida, Boise State
It was a busy week out west, but before we get to that, congratulations to Florida on recovering as well as they did following the Alabama and Kentucky losses. They were expected to beat Mississippi, but there were a lot of simulations in which they didn’t, so avoiding those universes was an achievement for the Gators.
Also in the power leagues, Oklahoma poured a vat of acid on TCU this Tuesday, holding the Horned Frogs to 46 in Norman. The Sooners’ schedule is tough. They’re only 3-3 in the Big 12 so far and they don’t get to play TCU anymore. But they’re good enough that their median projection looks something like a split with Oklahoma State, sweeps of Kansas State and Iowa State, and a 2-5 mark in their remaining games against the league’s dominant half, landing them at .500 in conference. It sure doesn’t hurt that in the Big 12/SEC Challenge, they get Alabama at home.
Finally, those western mid-majors. Boise State’s been playing well all year, losing by ten at Houston in their opener and winning every contest since. Lately, they’ve been gobbling up the Mountain West’s bottom half, winning their eight conference games by an average of 22 points. The schedule gets harder from here, but they’re still currently favored in every game they play over the next five weeks. The plurality of simulations (those in which the favorite wins every game) has them finishing with just four losses. The median has them finishing with six.
BYU’s had a rockier road, losing to USC by nearly thirty and getting beat by Boise State itself in Provo. But the Cougars have improved as the year’s gone on, and their last month-plus has been impressive. They enter tomorrow’s game at San Francisco with a 5-1 mark in their last six, with the only loss coming at Gonzaga and wins at San Diego State and Saint Mary’s.
Moving Out: Syracuse, Maryland, Michigan State, Providence
No real treats here from the Big Ten. Michigan State hasn’t played since Friday, but movement elsewhere was enough to drag them below the waterline. Maryland hasn’t played since Sunday, but they too drop from our projected field thanks to the accomplishments of others.
For Syracuse, all it took was a narrow road loss to UNC. Again, not a bad result, but not enough to withstand the tide. And Providence lost by a bit more than expected at Marquette, which, true to the refrain today, was all it took.
***
A little additional housekeeping: I think I’m scheduled to post an explanation of how our model works tomorrow. It isn’t very different from last year, but that explanation will include some information on what bigger changes might hit. Our new cadence for bracketology is twice-weekly, but it might not be perfectly consistent. Look for an update Tuesday if it doesn’t come on Monday.
Good luck out there.
