Well, Michael Rucker looked good.
I will say—back before the 2017 season, FanGraphs had Corbin Burnes as a 40 FV guy. Eleven months later, he was at 55 FV. That’s a huge jump in prospect valuation, and it only took a year. This can be misleading (the odds of a 40 FV pitcher becoming a reliable MLB starter for multiple years are probably one in ten, and the odds of one becoming a Cy Young contender are, of course, close to zero), but prospect ratings are accompanied by loads and loads of uncertainty. Be realistic with these Cubs guys coming up, but don’t be too rigid, and remember—the Cubs’ farm system as a whole is deep, tied for the second-most 35+ or better FV guys in the game. Not a lot of can’t-miss in there (Brennen Davis is the only one at all close to that status, and he’s more high-upside than can’t-miss), but that doesn’t necessarily translate into a lot of mediocre-but-serviceable players. It could translate into a few studs and a lot of folks who don’t pan out.
One last note on this, going back to the Burnes piece, where a breakout year sent him flying through prospect rankings: Guys performing well is better than guys performing poorly. Performance isn’t everything with these ratings, but it does matter. So as, for example, Alexander Canario posts a 169 wRC+ over his first nine games in South Bend, it’s ok to get excited.
***
The Diaspora:
Kyle Schwarber should begin a rehab stint today. Javy Báez pinch hit yesterday but is not in the Mets lineup in the opener of their doubleheader today. Kris Bryant is at a 130 wRC+ since joining the Giants, right around where he was at over his Cubs portion of the season. Joc Pederson drew two big walks in Atlanta’s dramatic win over the Reds. Trevor Williams is scheduled to start the doubleheader’s back half in Queens in what I believe is his Mets debut.
Around the Division:
John Curtiss, the Brewers’ trade deadline acquisition from Miami who left Tuesday night’s game with elbow soreness, may require Tommy John surgery. Adam Wainwright threw a Maddux last night for the Cardinals. The Reds are now eight games back of the Brewers, the Cardinals are eleven back, and we’ll see, but it’s been a bad week for Cincinnati.
Up Next:
The series finale. Long-awaited.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Milwaukee
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Temperatures in the 80’s, wind blowing out at about ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Brandon Woodruff vs. Kyle Hendricks
The Opponent:
Woodruff’s already at his career high in innings, up over 137 now. He’s fourth among qualified pitchers in xERA and third in FIP, so a nice easy day for Cubs bats after facing the league leader in those categories last night.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +190 underdogs with the Brewers at -210 for an implied Cubs win probability around 32%. The over/under’s at 8½ and favors the over.
Cubs News:
Jake Arrieta has been released after a disastrous first inning on the mound and a bizarre chirp at a reporter wearing a mask in the press box during Zoom questions. (“I’d love you to take your mask off. I don’t think anybody’s around you.”) Willson Contreras is on the IL with a knee sprain that is expected to be minor. Austin Romine’s finally coming off the 60-day IL. Kyle Ryan has been DFA’d, with Ryan Meisinger (not good career numbers, but fewer than 25 career innings) called up. Meisinger’s a righty, making Rex Brothers and Adam Morgan the only lefties currently in the ‘pen.
Cubs Thoughts:
It’s sad that the Arrieta thing is ending like this, and you do kind of wonder if his vaccine refusal and decision to be a dick last night hastened the exit. A disappointing end, but I don’t see any reason to blame the Cubs for giving Arrieta a shot this year. Just didn’t work, and the pandemic didn’t help matters off the field.
Contreras has caught a lot of innings this year, so probably nothing too major with the knee. I’m not opposed to shutting him down at some point, and if this is an intermediate shutdown that seems reasonable and ok.
Ryan might stick around, but his departure is a good reminder that the left-handed portion of the bullpen is even more up in the air than the rest of it for next spring. Unless Brailyn Márquez…(Brailyn Márquez has yet to throw an inning this year due to a shoulder strain and before that, Covid, I think).
