Andrew Chafin and Ryan Tepera are, one would figure, soon to be on the move, and as promised, let’s talk through what they could command in a trade.
We use FanGraphs’s Depth Charts for our projections here, and that system has Chafin amassing 0.3 more fWAR this year while Tepera puts up 0.2. That’s not a lot, but when you factor in leverage, and specifically playoff leverage, as well as how little money each is owed (roughly $1M more to Chafin, less than $400K to Tepera), there’s value to be had on these guys.
Still, don’t get carried away. While Craig Kimbrel could drive a team to give up a top-100 prospect, neither of these is going to make that kind of thing happen. You’re probably looking at a 45 FV pitcher or a 40+ hitter at best, which is to say the prospect could wind up among the Cubs’ top ten prospects but is more likely in the 10-25 range. Which is, of course, good! Two of those guys would be great. We’ll see if it happens. Adam Frazier netting so little was probably an instance of the Pirates really wanting Tucupita Marcano and having him valued more highly than the ratings we look at (and perhaps the market not offering a lot for Frazier and the Pirates getting spooked and pulling the trigger early), but the fact the return was so small (basically just Marcano) does give one pause on being too confident in the perceived value of different pieces and how the market’s functioning in various bidding wars.
Nice game yesterday, especially from Trevor Williams. Hope Javy Báez’s heel’s ok soon. Don’t make too much of speculation, it costs nothing to produce so it’s basically just free clicks if you’ve ever had a scoop and are therefore listened to (or notoriety, if you’re doing it on a TV/radio spot).
***
Around the Division:
The Cardinals beat the Reds, 10-6, and it’s hard to justify the latter buying but what do I know, maybe they can get some ticket sales out of it. The Brewers lost to the White Sox, 3-1.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 58-42, 90.6%
2. Cincinnati: 51-48, 6.1%
3. St. Louis: 50-50, 1.9%
4. Cubs: 49-51, 1.4%
5. Pittsburgh: 38-61, 0.0%
Cardinals and Brewers are both off tonight. Cards go to Cleveland tomorrow, Brewers go to Pittsburgh.
Up Next:
Four with the Reds, then the deadline hits before the next series begins.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Cincinnati
When:
7:05 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Beautiful night, wind blowing out towards left at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Wade Miley
The Opponent:
Miley was the butt of some jokes after his no-hitter (“Even Wade Miley threw one??”) but he’s having a great year, with a 3.25 FIP and a 3.75 xERA as he passes the 100-inning mark. As for the Reds as a whole: They’re without Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Nick Senzel, and Tejay Antone, among a few other names. Moustakas is reportedly traveling with the team, or was set to as of a few days ago. I’d imagine he’ll go out on a rehab assignment? But maybe not? Anyway don’t be stunned if he plays this series but do be a little surprised.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -130 favorites with the Reds at +110 for an implied win probability of about 54%. Over/under’s at 8½ and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
I can’t think of any roster moves. Rowan Wick might start the rehab assignment process soon, so that’d be cool.
Cubs Thoughts:
This might be a sad week. It might be a slow-burning sad week. It might hit us all at once. It might be a frustratingly inactive week. It might be a week of frustratingly small returns. It also might be a week when the Cubs effectively reset and make 2023 contention a legitimate target. Meanwhile, they will play baseball. Here goes something.
