Ok, yes, fine, that was a rough outing from Alec Mills, who’s been getting swatted around a bit these last few outings while also walking more batters than you’d like from him. At the same time, though, he’s got a 4.79 xERA and a 4.38 FIP over 115 innings, which is all solid, and the first two of which are better than what Kyle Hendricks has managed.
It’s a flawed argument to say, “Mills has been better than Hendricks, therefore he’s a guy next year.” Hendricks has been, by his standards, historically bad, and should be expected to rebound. But at the moment, Hendricks is projected by FanGraphs to be a 4.40-FIP pitcher the rest of the season, with Mills at 4.69. Those numbers aren’t far off from one another, and figure to be fairly similar next year. So while nobody’s saying Mills should be the Cubs’ 2022 ace, it’s fair to say he can be a reliable, professional starter, and it’s likewise fair to say Hendricks is closer to that designation than he is to the ace designation by a wide, wide margin.
Other notes from last night:
- Nick Martini was on base four times and hit a sac fly in his other plate appearance. It’d be surprising if the Cubs kept him around at the big-league level, but one would assume he’ll have some options for a minor league deal with a potential 40-man selection come June again.
- Rafael Ortega was on base three times, and he’s up to 1.5 fWAR, though his xwOBA (.302) still trails troublingly far behind his real wOBA (.347).
- Frank Schwindel was also on base three times, and while his xwOBA (.323) is also lower than his wOBA (.416), it’s at least around the average mark. Don’t expect Schwindel to anchor next year’s lineup, but don’t think that’s a bad thing. The Cubs could use a few average bats to fill this thing out, while hopefully getting more pop from a free agent signing or three.
- Ian Happ was on base twice, and is still sitting just above league-average overall, with a 101 wRC+.
- Matt Duffy and Austin Romine were each on twice, with Romine registering the hardest-hit ball of the night by either team. Duffy’s xwOBA is only two points lower than Schwindel’s, at .321, so I don’t know, maybe the Cubs should bring him back? 1.2 fWAR isn’t nothing, and they clearly like the guy in the clubhouse. Romine? Not so much. .184 xwOBA. Nothing against the guy, but he might be heading the Martini route.
***
The Diaspora:
Kyle Schwarber homered for the Red Sox, who fell to the Orioles and dropped within half a game of being out of playoff position. Jorge Soler singled home Atlanta’s only two runs against Philadelphia, inching himself closer to a division crown. Yu Darvish battled against the Dodgers but walked four in four innings while striking out six, and the Padres fell below .500.
Around the Division:
The Cardinals won again, and in doing that clinched the NL’s second Wild Card spot. What a turnaround from St. Louis. They’ll be underdogs next week, but if they play the Dodgers and get past the Dodgers, their pennant path becomes exceedingly open.
Up Next:
Another one in Pittsburgh.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Pittsburgh
When:
5:35 PM Chicago Time
Where:
PNC Park
Weather:
Beautiful. Temperatures in the 60’s, light breeze blowing out.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Roansy Contreras
The Opponent:
Contreras, part of the Jameson Taillon deal, has dazzled at AA this season, putting up a 2.74 FIP over twelve starts there. He shouldn’t be expected to go too deep into the game, but he should be ready to compete, debuting as the third-ranked Pirates prospect, per FanGraphs.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -115 favorites with their hosts at -105 for an implied win probability of something like 51%. The over/under’s at 8½ and leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
Jason Heyward’s done for the year. Keegan Thompson has more shoulder inflammation and is done for the year. Patrick Wisdom has a wrist issue. Nico Hoerner might be shut down with what the Cubs are terming “general soreness.”
Cubs Thoughts:
Spinning off the Duffy thought from above, it does squeeze things a bit tighter on the 40-man roster crunch to bring him back, especially if it’s done right away, and you do have some options for corner infield and corner outfield between Schwindel, Wisdom, Alfonso Rivas, etc. If he’s comfortable with a one-year deal, though, and you like having him in the organization, I’m in favor of it. He’s been an average hitter, and going back to the Schwindel point, the Cubs need some of those, with reason for confidence in only Happ, Contreras, and Nick Madrigal to reach those marks.
