It was the quietest playoff day yet, which was very considerate of the playoffs for those of us who also blog about college football.
What Happened
Atlanta 3, Milwaukee 0
How good was Max Fried yesterday? Max Fried struck out nine batters.
How good was Max Fried yesterday? Max Fried walked no one.
How good was Max Fried yesterday? Max Fried didn’t allow a ball in play hit harder than 102 mph, and only two were hit harder than 95.
It was masterful stuff from the 27-year-old, now in his third full season and still pitching like one of the best in the game. Milwaukee’s got a great rotation, but don’t forget Atlanta’s.
At the plate, it was Jorge Soler’s double that started it all, with Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies capitalizing on guys on base to grab a 2-0 lead in the third. An Austin Riley home run in the sixth later, it was 3-0, and that’s where it stood, with Luke Jackson and Tyler Matzek striking out five of the ten batters they faced before Will Smith navigated the ninth for the save.
Just nothing from Milwaukee. Nothing offensively at all. Brandon Woodruff pitched well, but nothing from Milwaukee. Series tied at 1.
Los Angeles 9, San Francisco 2
If it’s any condolence to the Brewers, the Dodgers did something similar on Friday night and woke up yesterday, jumping on Kevin Gausman for a pair in the second before busting things open in the sixth. They weren’t crushing the ball—only four balls in play were hit 104 mph or harder—but they got seven total bases out of those four, and timely hits from Julio Urías (!!) and Cody Bellinger made the difference.
Urías was his ever-solid self, striking out five and walking one over five innings of work. He gave the Dodgers bullpen a comfortable lead, and they used it.
Gausman wasn’t bad, and was probably a bit unlucky, but the Giants needed dominance and that was something he couldn’t pull off.
The Heroes
Win Probability added leaders, from FanGraphs:
- Fried (0.35)
- Urías (0.28, with 0.09 of that coming at the plate)
- Mookie Betts (0.12, plus that great throw in the sixth to cut down Wilmer Flores and a burgeoning San Francisco rally)
- Matzek (0.11)
- Freeman (0.10)
What It Means
The Dodgers are National League favorites once more. Atlanta/Milwaukee moves close to a tossup with Atlanta now holding home field advantage.
Other Notes
- Buster Posey had three hits. Brandon Crawford had two.
- AJ Pollock had a big double for the Dodgers after that of Bellinger.
- Trea Turner had a big double for the Dodgers before that of Bellinger.
- Chris Taylor had a big double for the Dodgers before Urías’s single.
- Will Smith went yard in the eighth for LA.
***
Now, today, in chronological order (travel day for the NL). We begin in Boston.
The Basics
Where: Fenway Park
When: 4:07 PM EDT
Broadcast: MLB Network (dammit)
Starting Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi (BOS); Drew Rasmussen (TB)
Odds: BOS -120; TB +100; o/u 8½ (o -115) [English translation: The Red Sox are roughly 52% likely to win; the Rays are roughly 48% likely to win; the expected number of runs is something like 8.6]
The Details
It’s going to be humid, cloudy, and cool in Boston, with a wind blowing in from right field. Weird weather day, and if the start of this series has been any indication, weird baseball day as well.
The Red Sox bullpen is a leaky tarp. The Rays’ whole being relies on guys overperforming the rest of our projections for them. Boston has bats, Tampa Bay has arms, each has a manager who’s going to manage proactively and aggressively.
Getting a good outing from Eovaldi is crucial for the Sox. It doesn’t have to be as good as his start in the Wild Card Game, but Boston needs some good innings from him, especially with Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck likely unavailable after throwing 73 pitches three days ago and 61 pitches two days ago, respectively.
For the Rays, getting a great start from Rasmussen is less essential, but they do probably need a good one. Acquired from Milwaukee in the Willy Adames deal, Rasmussen’s been a force for his new team, entering with a 3.09 FIP on the year and a 3.65 xERA over 76 innings of work. He’s been going five innings in starts recently—the Rays stretched him out as the year went on—so he’s capable of it, but as we saw with Shane Baz, the hook will likely be quick.
Winner takes a 2-1 series lead.
The Stars
Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez offered hopeful performances for the Red Sox in the face of their injuries. The Rays could use something big out of Brandon Lowe, who’s had a rough series so far.
***
And in Chicago:
The Basics
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field
When: 8:07 PM EDT
Broadcast: FS1
Starting Pitchers: Dylan Cease (CWS); Luis Garcia (HOU)
Odds: CWS -117; HOU +107; o/u 8½ (u -115) [English translation: The White Sox are something like 53% likely to win; the Astros are something like 47% likely to win; the expected number of runs is something like 8.4]
The Details
It’s Cease instead of Carlos Rodón for the White Sox, with the Sox’ best starter by FIP dealing with shoulder soreness over the last few weeks. Cease enters with a 3.40 FIP and a 3.60 xERA, so he gives Chicago a great shot to win, but Rodón would be the preferred choice here if both were fully healthy.
For the Astros, Garcia’s managed a 3.63 FIP and a 3.98 xERA, quietly serving up 3.1 fWAR in his rookie season. Projections expect some regression from him, and his walks over the last few starts provide a little concern, but only a little.
It’s a beautiful day in Chicago, with the wind blowing in from right and a bit of humidity in the air.
The Stars
Normally, this is players, but the spotlight’s on Tony La Russa for a few dozen reasons, with one being his unwillingness to use his bullpen in a modern (read: smart) way on Friday. Will he repeat his mistakes today? If he does, it might be curtains for the White Sox, and potentially for his own illustrious career.
