1. Is Matt Duffy the best batter on the Cubs?
Duffy is not the Cubs’ best hitter. But in terms of the craft—the approach—the way the man grinds everything out of an at-bat—it’s hard to think of a guy you’d rather use to teach batting than Duffman. And speaking of approach, how about this line after the game?
We’ll see what becomes of Duffy. He doesn’t have much pop. He has, as has been said, run a rocky road since coming to the big leagues. But if he’s enjoying it right now, let’s enjoy it too (and man, talk about a high-fiber diet for the lineup).
2. And let’s give Jason Heyward some love.
Good at-bat, great baserunning, perfect slide. Always love it when Heyward comes through.
3. Craig Kimbrel is fine.
It’s fair that people were concerned when he sat through what turned into a nailbiter on Friday, but as we said yesterday—he’d pitched a lot in the days prior, so letting him recoup wasn’t all that odd a move. Is it possible something was ailing him? Sure. It can’t be ruled out. But he looked good yesterday.
4. Get Javy Báez stretching.
I am not the Cubs’ training staff, nor am I qualified to be it. But Báez having a sore back after having hamstring issues is unsurprising. Hopefully they’re keeping him loose. I’m curious how this is impacting his swing.
5. Trevor Williams is ok.
Williams is turning in results at the back end of acceptable, but they’re still acceptable. If we’re getting greedy, sure, hope on Keegan Thompson to claim a rotation spot down the line, but as it stands, replacement-level isn’t unacceptable for a guy who was a bit of a lottery ticket coming in. The rotation has bigger worries than replacement-level Williams.
It’s worth noting that Williams’s xFIP (FIP but adjusted for HR/FB rate—not a statcast metric like xERA or xwOBA, which is very confusing) has stayed roughly constant throughout his career, or at least hasn’t jumped as much as his FIP did after 2018. Home runs seem to be the problem, which could be that he’s got a habit of grooving pitches or could be that he’s getting unlucky on fly balls but could also be that he’s just making a few too many mistakes, or that he was unsustainably lucky in 2017 and ’18. I haven’t looked into it in detail. I’m sure somebody could. Anyway, again, he’s not going to be an all-star, but the Cubs just need him to compete, and so far he’s done a good enough job of that.
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Around the Division:
The Brewers finally won again, beating the Marlins 6-2. The Cardinals couldn’t pull away from the Rockies, but they did hold on, winning 9-8. The Reds got beat up a bit in Cleveland, losing 9-2 as Luis Castillo allowed four earned runs and only struck out two over four-plus innings of work. Weird start to the year for him.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probability:
1. St. Louis: 20-14, 33.1%
2. Milwaukee: 18-16, 42.9%
3. Cubs: 17-16, 13.2%
4. Cincinnati: 15-16, 10.6%
5. Pittsburgh: 13-19, 0.2%
Series finales for everyone today except for the Reds, whose game in Cleveland was postponed and rescheduled for August.
Up Next:
Cubs try to sweep up before heading out of town.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
The rain should move out but leave it cool and a little humid, with temperatures in the 40’s and the wind howling in from left at 15-20 mph.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Tyler Anderson
The Opponent:
Anderson’s off to a great start to his Pittsburgh tenure, with a 3.24 ERA over six games and a 4.01 xERA and 3.40 FIP to back it up. His worst two starts have both come against the Cubs, but that’s the product of three home runs between the two games and it wasn’t that bad—he only gave up three runs in each.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -156 favorites right now, with the Pirates at +146 on the moneyline, which comes out to a little less than a 60% chance of pulling off the sweep. The over/under’s at six and slightly favors the over.
Cubs News:
Well, we have a lineup, and as suspected, there’s no Báez in front of an off-day tomorrow:
1. Duffy (3B)
2. Contreras (C)
3. Rizzo (1B)
4. Bryant (LF)
5. Bote (2B)
6. Heyward (RF)
7. Marisnick (CF)
8. Vargas (SS)
9. Hendricks (P)
It’s interesting how confidence-inducing a lineup with three players who were expected to have bench roles/not be rostered, plus Bote and Heyward, inspires.
Cubs Thoughts:
With a win, the Cubs would move to 6-3 against the Pirates, which is a solid record to have against the Pirates. So far, the Cubs’ saving grace has been those two sweeps against two of the NL’s three best teams (on paper). Beating the bad teams counts the same, though, and doing it again today would help the Cubs not have to sweep World Series contenders to stay afloat.
You’d think home runs wouldn’t be an issue for Hendricks today, but it’s never impossible, and the video boards do create some tunnels. Hopefully he can build some momentum after seeming to turn things around on Tuesday.
