Entering the weekend, it was unclear what a loss would mean for Georgia. Had they won, the possibility of affording themselves a stumble—most likely against Alabama in the SEC Championship—would have been more viable, as it now is for ‘Bama. In the losing scenario, though, it was unclear.
The SEC is always liable to put two teams in the College Football Playoff. It’s the only league that’s done it. It’s the best conference in the country. This year, though, through the shorter schedules of the Big Ten and Pac-12 and the immediate self-destruction of every Big 12 team not named Oklahoma State, there’s a case to be made that the ingredients are the best yet for a two-bid SEC. Of course, that case could be flawed. We don’t actually know yet whether the shorter schedules will help the Big Ten and Pac-12 (higher likelihood of an undefeated champion) or hurt them (weaker overall body of work). And the SEC hasn’t exactly done its part so far, with Florida’s loss at A&M ending the stratification probably necessary to get two teams to finish with one loss or fewer. But the possibility’s there. Which brings us back to Georgia.
Had Georgia lost a nailbiter to Alabama, then repeated the performance come December, it’s possible their two losses would have been viewed kindly enough by the committee for them to pass a one-loss Big 12 champion or even an undefeated Pac-12 champion. Would it have happened? We don’t know, and now we’ll never know. But it’s possible it would have. We have the worst idea of any year—including the first—about how the committee will do its job.
The implication of the Tide pulling away, then, is that Georgia, while not eliminated, is a lot less likely to get away with two losses. Margins matter: Ask Ohio State, whose blowout losses at Iowa and Purdue in 2017 and 2018 took them further out of the conversation than similar, closer losses by Oklahoma have taken it over the last few years.
The short of it? Clemson and Alabama are still in the driver’s seat. After that, there are a handful of teams in contention, led by Ohio State. Georgia’s still around, but it’s probably used up its losing capital.
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Over in the ACC, Florida State stunned North Carolina on a day when Notre Dame escaped Louisville, but only scored twelve points in doing so. We’ve long known it would probably turn out to be a Clemson-only league, but Saturday solidified that impression.
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Now that we’re back full-time, we’re aiming to have at least the high-level numbers out this week from our college football model. In addition to the annual maintenance, though, we’re trying to figure out how to forecast coronavirus-related postponements and cancelations, which play too large a role this year to ignore. We’ll either have the numbers out Thursday or bump the ETA back again to next week, but we wanted to give the loyal readers (and the disloyal ones, if you’re interested) an update. Plan your college football fanhood accordingly.
