We’re past the halfway point in the college football season, and while things are unclear (our model only gives two teams better than a 90% playoff chance), they’re unclear in a clear way. We know roughly how good everybody is. We know roughly how much every game means. The thing we don’t know is what’s going to happen.
We’re going to try going conference by conference here, focusing on playoff probabilities and the chances teams make their conference championship. If you want this for the FCS, click here. Some fine print:
- Probabilities come from this morning, updated to account for weeknight games this week.
- Movelor is our model’s power rating system. It gives us spreads.
- Our model currently only accounts for two-way and three-way ties that can be solved by direct head-to-head. No other conference tiebreakers are included in our model yet this year. We’ll start adding more in another week or two.
- We’re only focusing on games with conference championship and playoff impact. That leaves us with plenty of games, but there are always games left out.
- When we list out the standings, we only go down far enough to include teams with a 5% or better chance of making their conference title game.
SEC
Standings:
- Texas A&M: 4–0
- Alabama: 4–0
- Georgia: 4–1
- Mississippi: 3–1
- Missouri: 2–1
- Oklahoma: 2–1
- Vanderbilt: 2–1
- Texas: 2–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Mississippi at Oklahoma (Mississippi by 1.0)
- Alabama at South Carolina (Alabama by 12.6)
- Missouri at Vanderbilt (Vanderbilt by 0.8)
- Texas at Mississippi State (Texas by 12.9)
- Texas A&M at LSU (LSU by 3.9)
- Tennessee at Kentucky (Tennessee by 6.5)
Playoff probabilities:
- Alabama: 73% right now, 81% with a win, 40% with a loss
- LSU: 10% right now, 16% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Mississippi: 40% right now, 61% with a win, 16% with a loss
- Missouri: 26% right now, 43% with a win, 10% with a loss
- Oklahoma: 12% right now, 22% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Tennessee: 6% right now, 9% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Texas: 22% right now, 27% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Texas A&M: 46% right now, 72% with a win, 29% with a loss
- Vanderbilt: 10% right now, 18% with a win, 1% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Alabama: 79% right now, 86% with a win, 48% with a loss
- LSU: 1% right now, 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Mississippi: 19% right now, 34% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Missouri: 9% right now, 18% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Oklahoma: 3% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Tennessee: 1% right now, 1% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Texas: 17% right now, 20% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Texas A&M: 25% right now, 46% with a win, 11% with a loss
- Vanderbilt: 6% right now, 10% with a win, 1% with a loss
That’s a lot of numbers, because there are a lot of SEC teams in the regional and national mix. To give a quick read on what’s being tested in each game:
- Mississippi is trying to avoid both a post-Georgia letdown and an our–coach–is–getting–recruited–by–Florida letdown.
- Oklahoma needs to prove it’s a good football team.
- Texas A&M wants to establish itself as an SEC contender and not just a playoff bubble team.
- LSU needs to get up off the mat and show it’s still LSU.
- Missouri and Vanderbilt are both trying to stay in the playoff mix and gain that little extra bit of credibility that comes with a 7–1 overall record.
- Alabama’s facing a trap game after four straight ranked wins. South Carolina isn’t good, but South Carolina isn’t bad.
- Tennessee’s trying to avoid a very possible disaster and keep hope alive.
- Texas is again in a position of needing to bounce back and handle someone worse than them, but this time after a win instead of a loss.
Big 12
Standings:
- BYU: 4–0
- Cincinnati: 4–0
- Houston: 3–1
- Texas Tech: 3–1
- Arizona State: 3–1
- Iowa State: 2–2
- TCU: 2–2
- Utah: 2–1
- Baylor: 2–2
- Kansas: 2–2
- Kansas State: 2–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Kansas State at Kansas (Kansas by 2.4)
- BYU at Iowa State (BYU by 1.3)
- Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (Texas Tech by 35.9)
- Baylor at Cincinnati (Cincinnati by 7.0)
- TCU at West Virginia (TCU by 10.8)
- Houston at Arizona State (Arizona State by 11.3)
- Colorado at Utah (Utah by 13.8)
Playoff probabilities:
- Arizona State: 14% right now, 17% with a win, 2% with a loss
- BYU: 51% right now, 69% with a win, 30% with a loss
- Cincinnati: 21% right now, 27% with a win, 6% with a loss
- Houston: 3% right now, 10% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Iowa State: 4% right now, 8% with a win, 0% with a loss
- TCU: 4% right now, 5% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Texas Tech: 64% right now, 65% with a win, 24% with a loss
- Utah: 22% right now, 26% with a win, 1% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Arizona State: 34% right now, 41% with a win, 7% with a loss
- Baylor: 2% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- BYU: 45% right now, 62% with a win, 26% with a loss
- Cincinnati: 38% right now, 49% with a win, 14% with a loss
- Houston: 5% right now, 20% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Iowa State: 6% right now, 12% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Kansas: 2% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Kansas State: 2% right now, 5% with a win, 0% with a loss
- TCU: 5% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Texas Tech: 50% right now, 51% with a win, 14% with a loss
- Utah: 11% right now, 13% with a win, 1% with a loss
Again, a lot of numbers. The Big 12 is a maelstrom. What’s going on in each game:
- BYU’s trying to hold onto what it gained by beating Utah.
- Iowa State’s trying to get back into the Big 12 race.
- Arizona State’s trying to make itself a playoff contender again.
- Willie Fritz’s Houston could be a serious factor in this league earlier than anyone expected.
- Cincinnati’s looking to prove the consensus even more wrong.
- Baylor’s trying to make this season meaningful again.
- Texas Tech wants to let out some frustration on Oklahoma State and see if the offense can hum with Will Hammond under center.
- Utah wants to beat up a rival and show it can’t be messed with.
- TCU’s hoping to hold onto that last little bit of hope.
- Kansas and Kansas State just want to beat each other.
Big Ten
Standings:
- Indiana: 4–0
- Ohio State: 4–0
- Iowa: 3–1
- Michigan: 3–1
- Minnesota: 3–1
- Northwestern: 3–1
- Oregon: 3–1
- UCLA: 3–1
- USC: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- UCLA at Indiana (Indiana by 23.0)
- Illinois at Washington (Washington by 0.7)
- Minnesota at Iowa (Iowa by 10.9)
- Wisconsin at Oregon (Oregon by 33.3)
- Michigan at Michigan State (Michigan by 13.3)
Playoff probabilities:
- Illinois: 17% right now, 34% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Indiana: 95% right now, 97% with a win, 74% with a loss
- Iowa: 3% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Michigan: 6% right now, 7% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Oregon: 87% right now, 88% with a win, 48% with a loss
- Washington: 3% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Indiana: 84% right now, 86% with a win, 47% with a loss
- Michigan: 5% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Oregon: 15% right now, 15% with a win, 2% with a loss
Fewer numbers, but still quite a few numbers. What everybody wants:
- Illinois is trying to show the CFP committee it’s the team who beat USC and not the team who lost by four hundred points against Indiana.
- Washington wants to give itself something to play for while Jedd Fisch’s agent handles any Florida calls.
- Iowa wants to stay on top of the ghost of the Big Ten West.
- Indiana and Oregon just need to avoid disaster.
- Michigan wants to keep Michigan State in its place.
ACC
Standings:
- Georgia Tech: 4–0
- Virginia: 3–0
- SMU: 3–0
- Pitt: 3–1
- Duke: 3–1
- Louisville: 2–1
- Cal: 2–1
- Miami: 1–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Syracuse at Georgia Tech (Georgia Tech by 14.8)
- Virginia at North Carolina (Virginia by 11.7)
- SMU at Wake Forest (SMU by 8.4)
- NC State at Pitt (Pitt by 12.0)
- Stanford at Miami (Miami by 30.0)
- Boston College at Louisville (Louisville by 24.7)
Playoff probabilities:
- Georgia Tech: 46% right now, 52% with a win, 14% with a loss
- Miami: 58% right now, 59% with a win, 12% with a loss
- Louisville: 35% right now, 37% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Pitt: 5% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- SMU: 14% right now, 18% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Virginia: 23% right now, 28% with a win, 5% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Georgia Tech: 66% right now, 73% with a win, 28% with a loss
- Miami: 23% right now, 23% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Louisville: 17% right now, 18% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Pitt: 9% right now, 11% with a win, 1% with a loss
- SMU: 32% right now, 40% with a win, 11% with a loss
- Virginia: 45% right now, 53% with a win, 15% with a loss
The stakes here are pretty uniform: Every one of these six teams is facing someone out of the conference race. Every one of these six teams is favored by more than one possession. Everybody just wants to take care of business and pick up a few style points if they can pull that part off.
The American
Standings:
- Navy: 4–0
- USF: 3–0
- Tulane: 3–0
- Memphis: 2–1
- North Texas: 2–1
- East Carolina: 2–1
- Temple: 2–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- North Texas at Charlotte (North Texas by 22.4)
- USF at Memphis (Memphis by 4.7)
- Florida Atlantic at Navy (Navy by 15.8)
- Temple at Tulsa (Temple by 6.5)
Playoff probabilities:
- Memphis: 18% right now, 29% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Navy: 2% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
- North Texas: 10% right now, 11% with a win, 0% with a loss
- USF: 36% right now, 63% with a win, 19% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Memphis: 33% right now, 49% with a win, 7% with a loss
- Navy: 13% right now, 14% with a win, 3% with a loss
- North Texas: 34% right now, 36% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Temple: 3% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
- USF: 62% right now, 89% with a win, 46% with a loss
Memphis vs. USF is the big one. Betting markets are really far from Movelor on it, too, favoring the Bulls by 6.5 at the last time I checked. Brendon Lewis—Memphis’s quarterback—is day-to-day, which is part of that, but an 11.1-point gap between Movelor and betting markets is unusual this late in the season.
With a win, USF’s finally truly in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth, partly because Memphis will have two conference losses, making it likelier USF can avoid a rematch with the Tigers in the AAC Championship. Tulane is 48% likely to make the AAC Championship if USF wins this game. North Texas is 33% likely. Navy is 12% likely. USF would probably rather play any of those three than the Tigers.
Mountain West
Standings:
- Boise State: 3–0
- San Diego State: 2–0
- Hawaii: 3–1
- UNLV: 2–1
- Fresno State: 2–1
- Utah State: 2–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Boise State at Nevada (Boise State by 21.8)
- Utah State at New Mexico (Utah State by 1.6)
- San Diego State at Fresno State (Fresno State by 2.5)
Playoff probabilities:
- Boise State: 12% right now, 13% with a win, 1% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Boise State: 89% right now, 91% with a win, 68% with a loss
- Fresno State: 10% right now, 16% with a win, 1% with a loss
- New Mexico: 2% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
- San Diego State: 20% right now, 35% with a win, 9% with a loss
- Utah State: 9% right now, 14% with a win, 2% with a loss
Sun Belt
Standings, East Division:
- James Madison: 4–0
- Coastal Carolina: 3–1
- Marshall: 2–1
Standings, West Division:
- Southern Miss: 3–0
- Troy: 3–0
- Arkansas State: 2–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Louisiana Monroe at Southern Miss (Southern Miss by 14.1)
- Georgia Southern at Arkansas State (Arkansas State by 2.9)
- Louisiana at Troy (Troy by 11.8)
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Arkansas State: 8% right now, 12% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Louisiana: 1% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Southern Miss: 30% right now, 34% with a win, 11% with a loss
- Troy: 61% right now, 66% with a win, 39% with a loss
James Madison is off this weekend, but they’re at 20% playoff likely as of this morning, leading Boise State but trailing the winner of Memphis vs. USF.
MAC
Standings:
- Buffalo: 3–0
- Miami (OH): 3–0
- Western Michigan: 3–0
- Central Michigan: 2–1
- Ohio: 2–1
- Ball State: 2–1
- Toledo: 2–2
- Bowling Green: 1–2
- Kent State: 1–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Bowling Green at Kent State (Bowling Green by 18.8)
- Ohio at Eastern Michigan (Ohio by 16.0)
- Akron at Buffalo (Buffalo by 9.0)
- Toledo at Washington State (Toledo by 0.3)
- Ball State at Northern Illinois (Ball State by 0.6)
- UMass at Central Michigan (Central Michigan by 17.8)
- Western Michigan at Miami (Miami by 5.2)
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Ball State: 5% right now, 8% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Bowling Green: 9% right now, 10% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Buffalo: 16% right now, 20% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Central Michigan: 10% right now, 11% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Miami (OH): 43% right now, 58% with a win, 15% with a loss
- Ohio: 56% right now, 61% with a win, 24% with a loss
- Western Michigan: 47% right now, 78% with a win, 29% with a loss
WMU vs. Miami is the big one. Two of the three leading contenders.
Conference USA
Standings:
- Kennesaw State: 3–0
- Jacksonville State: 3–0
- Western Kentucky: 4–1
- Missouri State: 2–1
- Liberty: 2–1
- Louisiana Tech: 2–2
- Delaware: 2–2
These guys are done for this week, but Western Kentucky was the big winner, surviving a Louisiana Tech comeback with a two-point conversion in overtime to win 28–27. They’re up to 70% likely to make the CUSA Championship, with Jacksonville State next at 60%, Kennesaw State (who beat FIU 45–26) at 39%, Liberty at 17%, and the vanquished Louisiana Tech at 9%. Again, these and all other conference probabilities only consider tiebreakers that involve two or three teams and can be solved with direct head-to-head.
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