With most of the CFP Rankings uncertainty out of the way, college football fans can tonight turn their attention to a sacred, hallowed tradition:
MACtion.
It’s cold in Kalamazoo.
The fine print:
- Probabilities come from Tuesday morning, before any weeknight games this week. If they differ at all from what we listed elsewhere, it’s just normal deviations from a “small” sample of simulations. 10,000 simulations is a lot, but probabilities wobble by a percentage point or two when you only run that many in every set.
- Movelor is our model’s power rating system. It gives us spreads.
- Our model still includes a limited number of tiebreaker scenarios. This is enough to cover most of them, but not all of them. Here are details.
- We’re only focusing on games with conference championship and playoff impact. That leaves us with plenty of games, but there are always games left out.
- When we list out the standings, we only go down far enough to include teams with a 5% or better chance of making their conference title game.
MAC
Standings:
- Ohio: 4–1
- Buffalo: 4–1
- Miami (OH): 4–1
- Western Michigan: 4–1
- Central Michigan: 3–2
- Toledo: 3–2
- Ball State: 3–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Ohio at Western Michigan (Ohio by 5.6)
- Buffalo at Central Michigan (Central Michigan by 5.4)
- Toledo at Miami–Ohio (Miami by 0.5)
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Buffalo: 14% right now, 31% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Central Michigan: 5% right now, 8% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Miami (OH): 56% right now, 85% with a win, 24% with a loss
- Ohio: 69% right now, 92% with a win, 27% with a loss
- Toledo: 21% right now, 44% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Western Michigan: 35% right now, 80% with a win, 10% with a loss
Our model only sees six teams with better than a 1-in-2,000 chance at making the MAC Championship. All six of those play each other this week.
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