Every week, we try to share our model’s conditional probabilities for the games ahead. We try to understand how each game impacts the playoff and conference races.
This week, we need to wait for that playoff piece for most of the conferences. But MACtion is MACtion, and MACtion starts tonight. So…
The fine print:
- Probabilities come from Tuesday morning, before any weeknight games this week. If they differ at all from what we listed elsewhere, it’s just normal deviations from a “small” sample of simulations. 10,000 simulations is a lot, but probabilities wobble by a percentage point or two when you only run that many in every set.
- Movelor is our model’s power rating system. It gives us spreads.
- Our model currently only accounts for two-way and three-way ties that can be solved by direct head-to-head. No other conference tiebreakers are included in our model yet this year, though we’re monitoring all situations.
- We’re only focusing on games with conference championship and playoff impact. That leaves us with plenty of games, but there are always games left out.
- When we list out the standings, we only go down far enough to include teams with a 5% or better chance of making their conference title game.
MAC
Standings:
- Miami (OH): 4–0
- Buffalo: 4–1
- Western Michigan: 4–1
- Ohio: 3–1
- Central Michigan: 3–2
- Toledo: 2–2
- Ball State: 2–2
- Kent State: 2–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Miami–Ohio at Ohio (Ohio by 6.3)
- Northern Illinois at Toledo (Toledo by 18.1)
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Miami (OH): 67% right now, 93% with a win, 54% with a loss
- Ohio: 62% right now, 75% with a win, 36% with a loss
- Toledo: 16% right now, 18% with a win, 1% with a loss
More to come before Thursday night.
**
