We’re not going to get to everybody today. We did get to a lot of teams last week, though, so if you’ve got an itching for Indiana talk or ACC talk or the Penn State and Florida searches, here you go. As always, playoff probabilities come from our model and Movelor is our model’s power-rating system. Our bracketologies and notes are available here: CFP, FCS.
LSU (Movelor Rank: 18th, Playoff Probability: 1%)
1. It’s shocking that Brian Kelly never made a playoff at LSU. It’s easy to overblow LSU’s last three coaches all winning national championships—that’s a small sample, for one thing—but only Kelly’s biggest haters would have guessed he’d fail to grab any of the 32 playoff spots available over his four seasons in Baton Rouge.
2. Kelly’s theory in leaving Notre Dame for LSU was that with LSU’s resources, he could finally recruit the roster necessary to win a national championship. Given what we knew in 2021, this wasn’t a crazy theory. Did Kelly recruit that roster? No. He didn’t do all that much with the talent he had, but the talent wasn’t there either, and that’s worth investigating. It’s easy to paint a picture (we have painted this picture, and I do think it’s true) in which Kelly is the recruiting problem. He couldn’t recruit on Charlie Weis’s level at Notre Dame. He’s easy to dislike, either as a recruit or as the booster deciding whether to pay that recruit. Drop another qualified LSU candidate into that job, and they probably recruit better than Brian Kelly did. They probably build a better roster. Is that roster on a national championship level? Well, here’s the thing…
3. We don’t know how well LSU can recruit in the NIL era. Before NIL, the most important pieces of recruiting were how many resources you had (you wanted more) and how many scruples you had (you wanted less). LSU had a lot of resources. But LSU was always said to be great at lacking scruples. LSU, the story went, had boosters who were more willing to get players their money than other schools. Maybe that’s true, maybe it isn’t. If it’s true, it might become an advantage again now that the House settlement has some administrators pretending there’s a salary cap. But there’s an angle where LSU’s scruples advantage has lessened since Odell Beckham Jr. was handing out cash postgame at the Superdome. Now, that kind of thing is a lot closer to legal. The OBJ Cash Splash!™ Presented by Raising Cane’s. Anyway. Are the resources really big enough at the school with one of the two smallest endowments in the SEC? Endowments don’t perfectly reflect spending—they’re more a measure of how much money a school’s donors have ever had than a measure of how much they have and are spending right now—and LSU does have a mighty athletic budget. But LSU has been getting close to 100% of available resources from its donor base for a long time. Other schools probably have more room to grow. Part of what we might have seen in the Brian Kelly era was the SEC catching up to LSU.
4. There’s no Newtonian law that says LSU can’t become Auburn, a program which has lost seven games every year since Covid. Brian Kelly had a relatively high floor. LSU is willing to roll the dice, and good on them for that, but just two years ago we saw most of the biggest coaching targets decide to stay put rather than take a job like Alabama with insane expectations. This firing might get LSU back to the national championship. It also might go terribly. Gerry DiNardo never finished in the top ten.
5. It’s easy to find people today saying, “Even Ed Orgeron won a title at LSU!” It’s a funny line, but in case Ed Orgeron’s legacy’s already been forgotten: 2019 LSU was one of the best few teams of the last 15 years. Five players from that team were drafted in the 2020 Draft’s first round, but only one of those—K’Lavon Chaisson—was originally a five-star recruit. That program developed studs, and it specifically developed studs at positions like quarterback and wide receiver where mental skills and finer physical detail play a bigger role than raw size, raw speed, and raw strength. Would Joe Burrow be Joe Burrow without Ed Orgeron? Would Justin Jefferson be Justin Jefferson? They’d be great, sure. But so much of college football is culture. Under Coach O, when it broke it broke badly. But when it worked, even Nick Saban couldn’t beat him.
6. Brian Kelly is 64 years old. As of last night, there was still some negotiating over the terms of his buyout. Will he coach again? I don’t really see it in any role other than consulting. Any program he’d want to coach seems like a program that wouldn’t want him. He wants somewhere he can win a title. Schools that win a title won’t think he can win one. At some point, maybe Penn State goes so far down the list that they decide he’s worth it, or maybe Florida or Mississippi (if Lane Kiffin leaves) decides it wants a few years of a high floor. I kind of think it’s over, with maybe a brief appearance at Boston College or somewhere like that when he’s 68.
7. We’ve seen a few teams get an interim bump this year. LSU still has a lot of talent. Oklahoma will probably be out of the playoff race before the Tigers come to Norman, but Alabama better not take the 5–3 Tigers lightly on November 8th.
Texas (Movelor Rank: 9th, Playoff Probability: 17%)
8. There was that report on Saturday morning that Steve Sarkisian’s agents had reached out to the Titans expressing his interest in coaching in the NFL. The report drew an angry denial from Sarkisian’s agency. Was it true? Who knows. It wouldn’t be the first time there’s been speculation about Sark and the NFL. It would make a lot of sense for a family with a new baby, given the NFL job is less demanding these days than the college one. Would the Titans or another NFL team want Sark? I don’t know. He’s lost the offensive genius label lately, but not every NFL owner knows that, and his bigger strength in Austin has been holding back the ever-present threat of a Texas-sized shitshow.
9. There are two people who should watch the Sark story most closely, and they are the athletic director at Texas A&M and the agent of one Lane Kiffin. On the A&M side, Mike Elko’s about to win Coach of the Year and Texas loves big-brothering the Aggies. On the Kiffin side, Texas is probably the best job in the country, even if Charlie Strong and Tom Herman both struck out there. The resources are almost impossible to match. The AD—Chris Del Conte—is probably the best in the nation at what he does. That doesn’t mean it’s easiest to win there, but for anyone without a specific location preference, it’s the most desirable gig. Coaches want resources and assurances of stability. You can get more of both of those at Texas than you can at LSU.
10. That refutation from Sark’s agency was probably more about reassuring recruits and current players than placating Sark’s bosses. If Sark’s reaching out to the NFL, Texas knows. In fact, based on my extremely meager sources on campus, it’s sounded like Texas has thought Sark was reaching out to the NFL at points in recent years when he wasn’t. If anything, Texas is erring on the side of being unsurprised by this.
11. Why are we ten thoughts in and we’ve only offered one about this current season? Because it was a quieter weekend of actual football (no one moved in or out of our CFP Bracketology), and because the expanded playoff’s watering down the stakes. We should already be breathlessly anticipating Ohio State vs. Indiana while holding onto the SEC rollercoaster for dear life. Instead, teams are waiting until their playoff probability hits 1%, firing a coach who’s frustrating them, and getting a jump on the offseason rather than play out all those additional games that were supposed to matter more than they did in the four-team years. The twelve-team playoff’s fun, but promises of making things more interesting down the back half of the regular season are suspect. The coaching carousel is more exciting right now than the football.
12. Arch Manning’s concussion came at a bad time for the Longhorns. What should have been a galvanizing escape from Starkville turned concerning. Vanderbilt’s coming to Austin this weekend. Texas is still in the playoff race, but they can’t afford to lose to Diego Pavia.
Vanderbilt (Movelor Rank: 13th, Playoff Probability: 13%)
13. I don’t know how good Vanderbilt is but we do keep learning they’re at least a little better than we previously thought.
Mississippi (Movelor Rank: 7th, Playoff Probability: 55%)
14. I think our model’s low on Mississippi’s chances—more on this in the bracketology post—but they should not test losing a second regular season game. Oklahoma is probably about to be 6–3, with 6–4 looming once they play Alabama. Oklahoma is Mississippi’s best win, and Oklahoma will remain that way unless Mississippi wins the SEC. That’s not great.
Oklahoma (Movelor Rank: 23rd, Playoff Probability: 3%)
15. Speaking of Oklahoma, maybe I’ve missed some announcement, but if Brent Venables goes on a losing streak here, is his job in danger too? Because Brent Venables is probably about to go on a losing streak here.
Alabama (Movelor Rank: 3rd, Playoff Probability: 75%)
16. Alabama had just enough trouble with South Carolina that we’ll keep asking whether they’re at a heightened risk for trap games under Kalen DeBoer. Alabama did not have so much trouble that we’re reconsidering their status as the best team in the SEC.
Texas A&M (Movelor Rank: 8th, Playoff Probability: 76%)
17. A&M’s defense is still concerning, but this team is very good. No one can fault anyone for calling them the best in the SEC.
18. How does this sound for Heisman semifinalists? Fernando Mendoza, Julian Sayin, Ty Simpson, Marcel Reed, and Diego Pavia. We can get at least three and maybe four finalist chairs filled with that group.
Nebraska (Movelor Rank: 42nd, Playoff Probability: 0%)
19. Late in the Nebraska vs. Northwestern game, I thought we were going to see a preemptive Penn State protest against the hiring of Matt Rhule.
20. This is our only Big Ten mention this week, and that’s for two reasons: First, we gave Iowa a lot of love last week and we don’t need to rehash it. Second, the three good teams in the Big Ten are a lot better than everybody else. In the SEC, someone like Oregon loses and immediately has to play another top-15 team. In the Big Ten, there’s stratification and separation. This isn’t a “The SEC is better than the Big Ten!” argument. This is just why there’s nothing that interesting happening in the Big Ten today. Better best teams plus less depth equals bigger big games but fewer big games.
BYU (Movelor Rank: 15th, Playoff Probability: 71%)
21. BYU’s experience on Saturday (got trapped, then shook it off and ran Iowa State out of its own fired-up stadium) was a good experience to have. Knowing you can survive that has to be valuable.
Iowa State (Movelor Rank: 43rd, Playoff Probability: 0%)
22. It’s wild how quickly college football can go from “we’re putting it back together and might backdoor a trip to the Big 12 Championship” to “oh no, oh no, oh please God no.” Tough stretch in Ames. We said it last week, but Matt Campbell’s teams are good at rallying. I do think Iowa State will be competitive from here out. But any dreams of meaningful belt notches are over. I am sad.
23. I am also sad because Matt Campbell would be a great hire for Penn State, a great hire for Oklahoma or Nebraska if either comes open, and a good hire for Florida or LSU. A lot of programs would have to scare him off or tell him no for him to stay at Iowa State. It’s scary. It’s bittersweet. If he leaves, I think most ISU people will rightly want him to succeed at the next stop, but it’s going to hurt. Especially if it’s Nebraska. (If it is Nebraska, ax that line about people wanting him to succeed at the next stop.)
Texas Tech (Movelor Rank: 12th, Playoff Probability: 66%)
24. Quarterbacks aren’t as important as advertised in college football, but it’s not good to lose them when your roster’s depth is shaky across the board. Will Hammond wasn’t Julian Sayin, but he was good enough to make Behren Morton’s availability and ability both a non-issue. Now it’s a question mark for a team suddenly surrounded by the waves of the Big 12 race.
Colorado (Movelor Rank: 56th, Playoff Probability: 0%)
25. I still don’t fully understand what happened to Deion Sanders’s team Saturday night and during the week leading up to it. It seems like they all just decided they were done playing football with each other and being friends? If this is it for Coach Prime in Boulder, what a wacky memory these few years will be.
Utah (Movelor Rank: 11th, Playoff Probability: 32%)
Cincinnati (Movelor Rank: 25th, Playoff Probability: 27%)
26. People will learn this week how well Cincinnati’s been playing, but Utah’s been quietly playing a lot better than they were in September.
Arizona State (Movelor Rank: 34th, Playoff Probability: 1%)
27. Hard to draw up a sadder weekend for a Kenny Dillingham-era ASU fan. NFL Cam Skattebo, we hardly knew you.
Houston (Movelor Rank: 46th, Playoff Probability: 7%)
28. Willie Fritz is a program-builder, but he’s building it fast at Houston. A good thing to watch if you’re looking for the next big football program is success elsewhere in the athletic department. This isn’t foolproof, but sometimes it’s a sign of institutional competence, or of a good AD. This doesn’t tell the full story on Houston, but it can’t hurt football there to operate in the vicinity of Kelvin Sampson.
Georgia Tech (Movelor Rank: 24th, Playoff Probability: 57%)
29. Between Brent Key and Clark Lea, we’re about to get a big test of how much coaches like coaching their alma mater. It should be a lot harder for Georgia Tech to keep Key than for Vanderbilt to keep Lea. Maybe I’m wrong, but my impression is that Georgia Tech’s resources are always going to be limited by the ACC/SEC TV revenue gap, and my impression’s also that Atlanta cares more about UGA than Nashville cares about the Volunteers. Vanderbilt is playing a better hand.
Pitt (Movelor Rank: 32nd, Playoff Probability: 6%)
30. Mason Heintschel had a huge day on Saturday, and Pitt is suddenly a factor nationally. Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami all still have to play these guys.
SMU (Movelor Rank: 37th, Playoff Probability: 3%)
31. It’s funny when a coach on a lot of hot boards loses a game he shouldn’t. Is it going to be easier for SMU to say goodbye to Rhett Lashlee if he wants to leave? Is it going to make other programs want him less?
Wake Forest (Movelor Rank: 63rd, Playoff Probability: 0%)
32. A lot of people talked preseason about Wake Forest’s schedule. No Miami and two recent FCS-to-FBS transitioners plus one current FCS team in the nonconference. What has Wake Forest done with the opportunity? A lot! One win away from making a bowl game, and Delaware’s still on the schedule. Credit to Jake Dickert for moving the whole way across the country, putting his feet down, and winning football games. Good for Wake, where it’s easy to feel hopeless about the long term.
Virginia (Movelor Rank: 47th, Playoff Probability: 18%)
33. Virginia’s still getting a lot of credit for beating a Florida State team who hasn’t won an ACC game in over a year.
USF (Movelor Rank: 40th, Playoff Probability: 25%)
34. USF still has everything in front of it, but the Bulls missed a chance to put Memphis away. That’s going to haunt them.
Memphis (Movelor Rank: 38th, Playoff Probability: 21%)
35. Ok, Memphis is back to looking good. How will they disappoint everyone who loves them this time?
North Texas (Movelor Rank: 54th, Playoff Probability: 15%)
36. The Mean Green are humming. That USF loss showed a lot, but is this one of those teams who can spring upsets if they catch someone on the right day?
Tulane (Movelor Rank: 59th, Playoff Probability: 13%)
37. Quietly, Tulane’s still in this. Jon Sumrall’s now 38–10 lifetime as a head coach. Pretty good start!
James Madison (Movelor Rank: 49th, Playoff Probability: 17%)
38. I’m worried our model is too high on JMU’s chances. The committee has undervalued the Sun Belt in recent years, seeming to think it’s still what it was twenty years ago, more like Conference USA right now than a deeper AAC with a lower top end. The AAC having an unusually high number of good teams makes it easy to point all the focus there, too. What really stinks for JMU fans is that if the committee is undervaluing them, they might not know it right away. We only learn once a team expects to see the top 25 and doesn’t see it. JMU isn’t in that territory yet.
Boise State (Movelor Rank: 41st, Playoff Probability: 12%)
39. A buddy I hadn’t seen in a few years asked me on Saturday if I thought the New Pac-12 was going to work. My instinct is no, and I said that, though I obviously pointed out that they should be pursuing the Montanas, North Dakota State, and either South Dakota State or North Dakota. But thinking about #38 there—the Sun Belt disrespect—does make me wonder if the New Pac-12 is going to get preferential treatment next year. The people on these committees know how good each power conference team is. They don’t have a great pulse on how good each mid-major is. Conference membership becomes an important piece of intel, and as the Sun Belt’s treatment shows, the name of the league carries more weight sometimes than the actual strength of the teams in question.
Notre Dame (Movelor Rank: 5th, Playoff Probability: 73%)
40. I know Marcus Freeman is probably going to stay at Notre Dame, but I wonder how urgently the athletic department wants to build an even bigger extension for him. There’s a chance that all of Texas, LSU, Penn State, Florida, Oklahoma, Auburn, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Florida State are hiring new coaches this offseason. Not all of those are capable of getting Freeman’s agent to pick up the phone, but the nice thing about making someone the highest-paid college football coach right now, at the end of October, is that by the end of December they might be fourth or fifth on the list.
Navy (Movelor Rank: 95th, Playoff Probability: 2%)
41. I’ve been meaning to blog about this, and here’s as good a place as any. Every week I take a look at the teams who have covered every Movelor spread plus the teams who haven’t covered a single Movelor spread. These are the teams I’m most worried Movelor is wrong about, because it keeps being either too high or too low. By now, only nine teams are in this group, and only four of the nine are in the FBS. Among those? The 7–0 Navy Midshipmen. But here’s the catch: Navy, despite being 7–0, has underperformed Movelor’s expectations every single week. Navy has yet to cover a Movelor spread. I’m not actually worried that Movelor’s wrong about Navy—a handful of FBS teams have underperformed their preseason expectations by more, and Navy keeps only barely missing covering—but this is wild. Unfortunately, the streak ends this week. Navy’s an underdog against North Texas, so if they don’t cover, they won’t win.
North Dakota State (Movelor Rank: 26th, FCS Playoff Probability: 100%)
42. Chase Mason’s injury changed things, but that was a butt-whooping, and it wasn’t that surprising given what else we’ve seen from NDSU and SDSU so far this year. North Dakota State running 73 offensive plays to South Dakota State’s 47 tells most of the story. 24 to 11 in the first down department tells a lot more. Cole Payton getting 8.1 yards per carry as a quarterback kind of sends it home. Thank goodness for NDSU that Matt Entz left. (Great article by ESPN’s Dave Wilson about the game, by the way. Especially fun if you have ever lived and loved in the upper Midwest.)
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