First off, apologies this is late again. Hoping this is the last time we have to publish this after the games have started. Due to some issues (the puppy in Austin being hospitalized for a bit, but thankfully being ok!), we ran our model for only 1,000 simulations this morning, but we also didn’t have to use our proxies for NET/KPI/SOR, which is nice.
Michigan State/Drake and Alabama/Illinois flipped with one another again, so just to reiterate, our model saw those two noteworthy splits as very close entering today (and it did expect Michigan State to lose to Maryland, but it didn’t expect the 16-point margin I’m seeing with three minutes left as I write this).
Today’s biggest movement:
Moving Up: Syracuse
The Orange are probably locked in regardless of how this game with Virginia ends. They moved up to a 10-seed in our projection after yesterday’s throttling of NC State.
Moving Down: Louisville
Louisville is also probably locked in, but they’re down to a 12-seed in the projection, so they shouldn’t feel safe. Going to be a long few days on the Ohio.
Moving In: Drake, North Texas (auto-bid), Iona (auto-bid)
North Texas becomes the C-USA favorite after playing their way into the quarterfinals. Iona becomes the MAAC favorite after playing their way into the semifinals.
Moving Out: Michigan State, Louisiana Tech (auto-bid), Siena (auto-bid)
Louisiana Tech still has a good shot. Siena is done.
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No conference tournament probabilities today since so many are already underway. Should be back tomorrow, barring something unexpected.
