It was a low-impact college football weekend…with two exceptions.
First, the Sun Belt:
Three Sun Belt teams beat Big 12 teams, and while none of those Big 12 teams were exactly playoff favorites (sorry, Kansas), Iowa State was expected to spend the season comfortably within the Big Ten/Pac-12/Boise State-less “Top 25.”
What happened?
To be fair, SP+ had Coastal Carolina favored to beat Kansas, it had Louisiana-Lafayette as only an eight-point underdog, and it had Arkansas State as a ten-point dog (without considering the Red Wolves’ 13-point loss to Memphis on Labor Day Saturday, which may have narrowed that gap). ULL was expected to be better than four Big 12 teams. Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina were each expected to be better than one (though that one is Kansas).
In other words, it wasn’t shocking. But that doesn’t mean it won’t be impactful. Depending on what happens with the Big Ten (and we’ll get to them), there may be just three power conference champions for the College Football Playoff committee to choose, leaving the fourth spot very much up for grabs. It’s most likely that it’ll go to the SEC West runner-up, or the SEC Championship loser, or perhaps an ACC Championship loser if two of the UNC/Notre Dame/Clemson triumvirate end up with one loss. It’s possible the Big 12 will get two bids. It’s possible the Big 12 will get zero bids. It’s possible a team will be forgiven a loss they experienced without two position groups. It’s possible we won’t make it that far.
There’s always uncertainty when subjectivity’s involved, and the College Football Playoff rankings are subjective by design. Add in heightened uncertainty and take away two conferences from a system designed for five, and at the very least, it’s fair to entertain the possibility of a Group of Five team taking the fourth spot.
Which brings us to Louisiana-Lafayette.
The Ragin’ Cajuns were clearly the better team in Ames, comfortably pulling away from the Cyclones down the stretch. They’re coming off an eleven-win season in which their losses came to Mississippi State in New Orleans (by ten), to Appalachian State in Lafayette (by ten), and to Appalachian State in Boone (by seven). They’re 19th in the AP Poll after the victory, meaning they’ve got some media clout. They’re 30th in SP+ (0.4 points behind Appalachian State), meaning they’ve got the tools to keep winning. That isn’t as good as beat-the-crap-out-of-Navy-but-now-Covid-infected BYU (21st in SP+), but it’s better than methodically-disintegrating-lesser-foes Army (39th), and if Iowa State figures out how to play offense and cover kicks (the first of which may be helped if Charlie Kolar returns soon), they could well wind up with a best win comparable to that of Oklahoma.
Consider BYU. Consider Army. Consider the AAC. But don’t be surprised if the Sun Belt’s performance this weekend is brought up again in November, whether on behalf of Louisiana-Lafayette, Appalachian State, or even someone like Troy. They probably won’t actually get a team in the field. But there might be some loud voices calling for just that.
Second, the Big Ten:
It’s unclear what’s happening in the Big Ten, but it sounds like the possibility of starting the season in October is back on the table, which puts Ohio State back, for now, in the playoff mix, potentially at the expense of the Sun Belt.
As far as The Barking Crow’s college football model goes, we’re still tracking towards having it finished around this time next week, with the aim of launching it next Tuesday or Wednesday in anticipation of the SEC openers and the Big 12 conference openers. The Big Ten could change that, though. As could other things. Like it taking longer to finish than we’ve estimated.
