I like that they ease us into this: “Here’s one game…here’s another…ok, let’s try two today…now FOUR.” Builds you up, that way.
What Happened
Let’s go game by game, in subjective order of excitement tied partially to my financial investments:
Boston 14, Tampa Bay 6
What a game. After a Jordan Luplow first-inning grand slam flipped what had been a great Red Sox start into the Rays tasting a 2-0 series lead, Boston battled back.
There was so much hitting in this game (Kike Hernández alone had four extra-base hits) and we’ll get to all of that (let’s give Hernández another mention here, just to be safe), but how about Tanner Houck? Chris Sale exited after just one inning, Sox trailing 5-2, and all Houck did was come in and strike out five batters while allowing just two men to reach base over five innings of work.
Meanwhile, the bats were humming. It was a singles parade in the first for Boston, but with the game underway, home runs took over. Xander Bogaerts and Alex Verdugo went back-to-back in the third to make it 5-4. Hernández and surprise lineup addition J.D. Martinez homered in the sixth to make it 8-5. Rafael Devers, grimacing from forearm pain after every swing, homered to make it 11-6 in the eighth. Overall, Martinez had four hits, Hernández had five (including three doubles), Bogaerts and Verdugo had three, and Christian Vázquez also had three, driving in two runs on singles himself. Kevin Cash was forced to leave Michael Wacha in there in mop-up duty while Alex Cora got to give even Matt Barnes, added to the roster to replace an injured Garrett Richards, an inning of work.
Milwaukee 2, Atlanta 1
This was one of those games where both starters were so good that one could forget how impressive it was what each was doing. Corbin Burnes went six scoreless innings, walking three and striking out six. Charlie Morton went six scoreless innings, walking just one and striking out nine. Now. Morton went out for a seventh inning, hit Avisaíl García, and allowed a Rowdy Tellez home run, so his outing wasn’t scoreless, but it was a duel nonetheless.
Burnes was in trouble in the first, walking Jorge Soler and Freddie Freeman to open the game, with the fourth ball to Freeman a passed ball that allowed Soler to advance to third. But Tellez showed up defensively, nailing Soler at home after stepping on first on an Ozzie Albies ground ball, and that was all the NL’s best healthy pitcher this year needed. Lights out from there.
Atlanta did get a run in the eighth on a Joc Pederson home run off Adrian Houser (side note: Houser got the seventh and eighth with Devin Williams sidelined, which is not insignificant to note; another side note: Houser threw 26 pitches, so I’d imagine we won’t see him today unless it gets unscripted for Craig Counsell), and they turned the screws a bit on Josh Hader in the ninth, with Freeman drawing a leadoff walk and Austin Riley singling him to second with one out. Again, though, the defense showed up, with Omar Narváez grabbing an Adam Duvall dribbler and firing it to second to force out Riley before Hader induced a game-ending groundout with runners on first and third.
San Francisco 4, Los Angeles 0
Logan Webb.
There’s the thing in baseball about a pitcher getting worse his third time through the order, or rather, hitters getting better their third time through against a certain pitcher.
The third time through was not a problem for Logan Webb.
Webb faced 28 batters yesterday. He struck out ten of them. He walked none.
Webb did allow some hard contact: the Dodgers hit seven balls 100 mph or harder. But even that was often harmless, with three registering xBA’s of .240 or lower (one popout, two groundouts) and only one becoming an extra-base hit. Just masterful stuff from the 24-year-old.
Offensively, Webb got some help. Buster Posey hit a two-out, first-inning home run with Tommy La Stella on base to give San Francisco the early lead. Kris Bryant led off the seventh with a home run of his own to make it 3-0. In the eighth, Brandon Crawford hit a solo homer himself to get the game out of save territory. But the story was Webb. Logan Webb shut down the best lineup, on paper, in baseball.
Houston 9, Chicago 4
The best lineup on the field had a good day itself. And it got some help.
There’s no counterfactual here, and the White Sox’ bullpen did struggle, as it turned out. But Tony La Russa…what was Tony La Russa doing?
Through four innings, Lucas Giolito had thrown 47 strikes and 30 balls. He’d walked three batters and only struck out four. He was laboring. It was ugly.
Tony La Russa sent him back out for the fifth.
To face Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and Alex Bregman.
With a 4-2 lead.
It was sheer idiocy from La Russa, and Giolito showed it, walking Altuve and Bregman before his manager finally came to give him the hook, handing Garrett Crochet a few ducks on the pond which promptly turned into a tie baseball game. From there, it was all Astros, with Aaron Bummer and Craig Kimbrel combining to allow five in the eighth as Houston put their guests on the brink of elimination.
(One quick note on Kimbrel: The narrative goes—and I believe the stats actually do back this up but I don’t have those on hand so go look it up if you care enough to check—that Kimbrel is best in save situations, pitching the ninth inning. This is odd, and it’s fair to criticize Kimbrel for it, but also…ok, if that’s the case, shouldn’t you use him that way? If you get one of those combo screwdrivers that can be both a Phillips and a flathead, but the flathead part doesn’t work for some reason, don’t you cut your losses and just use it as a Phillips if you aren’t going to get a new screwdriver? Anyway, also curious how Kimbrel would have done if the game wasn’t already trending towards being over when he got the ball.)
On the Astros side, Kyle Tucker’s home run and doubles by Brantley and Carlos Correa were the only extra-base hits. And they still scored nine. Well done, Tony.
The Heroes
Win Probability Added leaders, from FanGraphs:
- Webb (0.41)
- Luis Robert (0.33 – had three hits for the Sox and walked once, keyed a fifth-inning rally that gave La Russa and Giolito the lead in the first place)
- Martinez (0.31)
- Luplow (0.26)
- Hernández (0.25)
- Bogaerts (0.21)
- Bregman (0.20)
- Tellez (0.19, plus defense)
- Yordan Alvarez (0.18)
- Hader (0.17)
- Posey (0.15)
- Houck (0.14)
- Freeman (0.14)
- Correa (0.11)
- Tucker (0.10)
- Tony La Russa (negative 0.25 – this is a simplistic but serious estimate, they were something like 72% likely to win when he made the decision to keep Giolito in the game)
What It Means
The Dodgers are no longer World Series favorites, with FanGraphs giving the Astros (27.1%) a big edge and the market giving the Astros (+325 on Bovada) a small edge. Atlanta is in danger. Chicago is past the point of danger and onto the point of survival.
Other Notes
- The Astros bullpen did its job and then some, with Yimi García allowing some inherited runners to score but no other runs coming in off of him, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, Ryan Pressly, and Kendall Graveman.
- All of Roberts’s hits were hit 102.7 mph or harder.
- Burnes allowed nothing to be hit harder than 99 mph.
- Tellez’s home run was crushed—411 feet, out by that yellow-line territory in Milwaukee in center.
- Devers seems to be able to swing through the arm pain, though that’s a dicey situation and isn’t guaranteed to not get worse.
- The Giants only needed eleven pitches from their bullpen.
***
Now, today, with the American League teams traveling. Chronological order, starting in Milwaukee:
The Basics
Where: American Family Field
When: 5:07 PM EDT
Broadcast: TBS
Starting Pitchers: Brandon Woodruff (MIL); Max Fried (ATL)
Odds: MIL -120; ATL +110; o/u 7½ (u -120) [English translation: The Brewers are roughly 53% likely to win and 47% likely to lose; the expected number of runs is something like 7.26]
The Details
Hader wasn’t outstanding yesterday, walking the leadoff man and needing twenty pitches to get through the inning. Can the Brewers’ offense give him enough cushion?
It won’t get easier for Milwaukee, facing Fried after dealing with Morton. Fried’s got a 3.31 FIP, a 3.49 xERA, and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since July.
It won’t get easier for Atlanta either, though, or at least it won’t get significantly easier. Woodruff’s got a 2.96 FIP and 3.29 xERA.
We’ll see if either offense can get much going.
The Stars
Woodruff, Fried, Freeman, evidently Tellez? A Rowdy Tellez breakout would be a good time. Remember: He started the season in Toronto, going to Milwaukee in July in exchange for Trevor Richards and decent prospect Bowden Francis.
***
Giants/Dodgers, Game 2:
The Basics
Where: Oracle Park
When: 9:07 PM EDT
Broadcast: TBS
Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman (SF); Julio Urías (LA)
Odds: LA -110; SF +100; o/u 7 (o -120) [English translation: The Dodgers are about 51% likely to win; the Giants are about 49% likely to win; the expected number of runs is something like 7.24]
The Details
If you care about such things (and it’s ok to care about such things, even if they’re not the best performance reflectors), Urías was baseball’s only 20-game winner this year, and its only 18-game winner, for that matter. He’s got a 3.13 FIP and 3.12 xERA, and while he might not be as good as Walker Buehler on paper, he’s been every bit as good on the mound this season.
Gausman is also in that territory. 3.00 FIP. 3.49 xERA.
The Giants can put the Dodgers on the brink today. They could also flip back to being series underdogs. Such is the nature of the Division Series.
The Stars
Buster Posey is 34 years old, and there’ve been a few times when it’s looked like his catching days were behind him. He’s still back there, though, and he can still hit, with last night’s home run just a continuation of his best offensive year since 2014.
Again, keep an eye on that Giants bullpen, too. Every night could be a big night for them at this point.
