1. Hey, they won!
That was fun.
2. Home runs.
Rizzo, Wisdom, Heyward (!!), all good things.
3. What’s the reasonable perspective on Jason Heyward?
Speaking of Heyward: We don’t often talk about his role in the future of the Cubs, but he’s a pretty key player in what that future will look like, owed $22M each of the next two years. It’s pretty unlikely the Cubs would trade him in a strict salary dump or DFA him, because he’s not bad. He’s just not $22M/year good. He’s been worth 0.8 fWAR on the year, he’s expected to finish the year having contributed about 1.6 fWAR (a little positive regression is likely in order), and if you drop that onto the aging curve, that means he’ll likely contribute a total of about 1.7 more WAR over these last two years. There are error bars on those projections, of course, but we’re at the point in the Heyward experience at which it might be time to stop hoping on him to get better and just think of him as a bottom of the order, defense-first right fielder who’s a good guy to have in the clubhouse. The kind of guy you pay $8M/year on one-year deals. Jon Jay. And then the extra $14M/year is wasted space, but that’s ok.
In short: Stop hoping for Jason Heyward to be good. Expect him to be a below-average bat. Think of him as older than he is. It might help.
4. Kyle Hendricks still isn’t all there.
Three more walks last night. So uncharacteristic of him. The “MLB Wins Leader” thing is masking it, but Hendricks has been struggling. Fewer strikeouts, more walks, more serious contact. It’s not standard deviations away from his 2019-20 self, but it’s not his 2019-20 self, and his FIP and xERA are standard deviations away, which I guess kind of nullifies the beginning of this sentence. He’s never had an xERA or FIP above 3.88 (which was his FIP in 2017). His xERA’s currently 4.92. His FIP’s 4.76. And it’s been a lot better of late (2.92 FIP over his last six starts, six innings or more in each), but it’s still a little concerning.
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Around the Division:
The Brewers scored five in the eighth to turn a one-run lead into a six-run lead, ultimately beating the Reds 11-6. The Cardinals lost to the Giants, 7-2.
Standings, FanGraphs division champion probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 54-39, 85.4%
2. Cincinnati: 48-43, 10.6%
3. Cubs: 45-46, 2.7%
4. St. Louis: 44-47, 1.3%
5. Pittsburgh: 35-56, 0.0%
A two-tenths-of-a-point increase in division championship probability. Increase by that much every day and you’re…ok you need to increase by more than that each day. An eight percent increase, do that every day and you’ve got the division wrapped up at the end of August.
Brandon Woodruff vs. Luis Castillo in Cincinnati. Anthony DeSclafani vs. Kwang Hyun Kim in St. Louis. If you’re curious, the Cardinals still have just three starting pitchers rostered, and one of them remains Wade LeBlanc, who’s scheduled to pitch tomorrow and not start during the four-game set against the Cubs this week.
Up Next:
Game 2
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Arizona
When:
3:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Chase Field
Weather:
Dome
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Zac Gallen
The Opponent:
Gallen’s coming off the IL, where he was sitting with a hamstring injury for the last two weeks. He had a partial UCL tear earlier this year, and he’s been rather vocal about MLB hypocrisy in the sticky-stuff crackdown, implying some of his career success may not be what should be expected this afternoon. Still, he’s been a pretty consistent guy, and his numbers when healthy haven’t been far off of expectations—the xERA and FIP have been similar to 2019 and 20 even if the ERA’s risen—so the Cubs will have work to do.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -130 favorites. Diamondbacks are at +120. About a 55% implied win probability. Over/under’s at nine and favors the under.
Cubs News:
Eric Sogard took Joc Pederson’s spot on the active roster, returning from what might have been something of a phantom thumb injury. David Bote started his rehab assignment, and as a reminder, Bote had a .356 xwOBA over 162 PA’s before getting hurt, so if we’re talking about guys the Cubs have missed, Bote is a guy to talk about.
The Cubs announced that they’ve signed nine of their first ten draft picks, which is a great start. James Triantos is the last one unsigned, but it sounds like the Cubs have the space in their bonus pool to go a little over slot for him, which is good because he’s a high schooler and those guys have a lot of leverage. They’ve also picked up some undrafted dudes, which is exciting given Ben Leeper, a top-20 or top-25 prospect, was an undrafted guy last year and is now in AAA on track to potentially contribute next year at the big-league level, and while that might not be indicative it sure is hopeful!
I wouldn’t expect the draft to move the Cubs up too far on any farm system rankings, but trades could get them close to the top ten, I would guess, with the possibility of cracking it if teams ahead of them deal enough guys to fall out. Not a bad place to be entering what will hopefully be a short rebuild.
Cubs Thoughts:
I’m a little concerned about Alzolay, who’s given up a ton of home runs lately. Also concerned the Cubs won’t show up like they didn’t show up last Saturday after a fun Friday win. But we’ll see. Hopefully the break was good for the headspace.
Beyond that, a note about Anthony Rizzo, whose home run last night pushed him up on some all-time Cubs leaderboards:
I’ve been a little bit on the Anthony-Rizzo-isn’t-worth-the-money side of things, and I think that’s true in a baseball value sense. I also sometimes wonder if there’s an issue with the Cubs not digging in mentally and making things happen when they need to make things happen, and I sometimes wonder if Rizzo bears a little of the responsibility for that. So as I say things like, “Rizzo should accept the qualifying offer,” and, “the Cubs should focus on extending Bryant and Báez because Rizzo is Ryan Zimmerman minus five years and it’ll take time to come to grips with that,” I also want to say that I love Anthony Rizzo as a member of the Chicago Cubs, I hope they keep him for forever, and I will always marvel at him playing on that ankle injury down the stretch in 2019 when things were already somewhat hopeless. I’ll likely be distilling this all down to, “Anthony Rizzo has been everything the Cubs could have ever asked Anthony Rizzo to be and God bless him for that,” but at the same time, the Cubs shouldn’t be paying Rizzo more than what they reportedly offered this offseason, and realistically, that offer may now be a stretch.
