Rainout last night, doubleheader today, let’s get into the daily stuff.
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Draft Watch:
The Nationals won but the Twins lost, leaving the Cubs seventh in the current order, percentage points off Minnesota and half a game worse than Washington.
The Diaspora:
Javy Báez and Kris Bryant played against one another in Queens, with Bryant’s side coming out on top, 8-0. Bryant actually wasn’t in the lineup, but Báez was, going 0-for-3 with a walk. In an “oh yeah, those guys were Cubs” moment, a Jorge Soler walk from Aroldis Chapman set up a dramatic finish in Atlanta, but the finish involved neither so we can’t talk about it here (except to say that I was hoping the Yankees would bring Anthony Rizzo in to pitch to Freddie Freeman).
Around the Division:
The Brewers rallied from three down in the seventh to win by three over the Reds, further cementing themselves as presumptive division champions while keeping Cincinnati just one game ahead of San Diego for the final playoff spot in the NL. The Cardinals, for those wondering, lost to the Tigers and are three back of the Reds in the loss column but six back in wins.
The Reds DFA’d Sean Doolittle as Tejay Antone returned from weeks and weeks on the IL, but Antone then left the game after five pitches, with some of the signs around it pointing towards potential Tommy John surgery. Eduardo Escobar went on the IL for the Brewers with a hamstring strain. Gregory Polanco cleared waivers but the Pirates are keeping him, and keeping him at the big league level. Yadier Molina signed a one-year, $10M extension with the Cardinals, who also welcomed Dylan Carlson back off the IL but had to watch Jack Flaherty leave the game with shoulder tightness.
Up Next:
The doubleheader.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Colorado
When:
Game 1: 1:20 PM Chicago Time
Game 2: 5:30 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Looks clear, with temperatures in the 80’s and wind blowing out to left early before switching to more right-to-left action late. Five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Game 1: Zach Davies vs. Germán Márquez
Game 2: Justin Steele vs. Austin Gomber
The Opponent:
We talked about Márquez yesterday (sparknotes: he’s good). As far as Gomber goes: He’s having a solid year! He’s always been decent—4.00 career FIP, was probably the centerpiece of the Nolan Arenado deal—and has continued that in a larger role this season, with a 4.11 FIP and 3.78 xERA over 21 starts. That’s good for a 1.7 fWAR (Arenado’s is 3.2, for reference, and no that isn’t an apples-to-apples way to evaluate the trade). Tough opponent, though not Márquez.
The Numbers:
In Game 1, the Cubs are +125 underdogs with the Rockies at -150 for an implied Cubs win probability of about 42%. In Game 2, the Cubs are +102 underdogs with the Rockies at -112 for an implied Cubs win probability of 48%. Over/under in the first is 6½, over/under in the second is seven, each leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
Adbert Alzolay is heading to Iowa on a rehab assignment, and therefore could return somewhat soon.
Cubs Thoughts:
Steele’s still the biggest guy to watch, though the bats are important to see as well.
Also, not to respond to dumb tweets, but a dumb tweet went around comparing the Cubs’ departing core (Rizzo/Bryant/Báez) to…the quadruple-A guys the Cubs are playing on a tryout? Yes, they’re old. No, they’re not supposed to be that good. But Rafael Ortega, Frank Schwindel, and Patrick Wisdom are not the Cubs’ next core. They’re supporting players featuring in main roles right now because next year’s heart of the order is likely to come in large part through free agency. Some of them might even get cut this offseason, depending on 40-man roster considerations and how this next month goes. Maybe the tweet was tongue-in-cheek and I didn’t get it. Misleading stuff if taken seriously, though.
