1. Well done, Kyle Hendricks.
His FIP and xERA are still north of 5.00, but he won the Cubs a baseball game last night they were really wanting to win. There were a few tense moments. He wriggled out of each one. He handed the strongest part of the bullpen a shutout to keep intact. They did that.
2. Well done, bullpen.
The freshness afforded that back end is, to be fair, something of a benefit of forcing Robert Stock to do what David Ross forced Robert Stock to do Wednesday night.
3. It’s hard to hit Marcus Stroman.
We are far from having concerns about the Cubs’ offense, and the combined first inning efforts of Kris Bryant (thank goodness you’re back, sir) and Javy Báez (please keep pulverizing baseballs) gave Hendricks the breathing room he needed. Do not be concerned about the scoring after that series. The Mets are strong on the mound.
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Around the Division:
Close friend Victor Caratini walked it off for the Padres off of Amir Garrett, and I would say he should be expecting a gift basket from one Javier Báez. The Rockies (of all the teams) jumped on Brandon Woodruff for five in the first inning, and while Woodruff settled down, the Brewers still lost, 7-3. The Cardinals were shut out by Charlie Morton and a couple Atlanta relievers, and I have not checked Charlie Morton’s spin rate but I am intrigued and will look forward to doing so in the not-too-distant future.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Cubs: 39-30, 30.4%
2. Milwaukee: 38-31, 47.1%
3. Cincinnati: 35-32, 14.9%
4. St. Louis: 35-34, 7.5%
5. Pittsburgh: 23-44, 0.0%
It’s Carlos Martínez vs. Max Fried in Atlanta tonight. Corbin Burnes vs. Antonio Senzatela in Denver. Tony Santillan vs. Chris Paddack in San Diego (Santillan’s a middle-tier Reds prospect making his second career start).
Up Next:
The Marlins
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Miami
When:
7:05 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Temperatures around eighty degrees. Not a lot of wind, but what wind there is should shift from blowing in from right to blowing out towards left as the game goes along.
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. TBD (Zach Thompson?)
The Opponent:
If it is Thompson, he’s intriguing. He never got out of the minors with the White Sox, electing free agency this offseason and signing with the Marlins. Brought up for the first time a couple weeks ago, he’s made two starts, with the latter a five-inning blanking of Atlanta. We’ll see if we see him. If we see him, we’ll see what he can do.
The Marlins are among the best in the majors in run prevention, something they owe about equally to their rotation and their bullpen, though their rotation is better than the bullpen on paper. They struggle to score, though, which is currently exacerbated by the absences of Garrett Cooper, Miguel Rojas, Brian Anderson, and Corey Dickerson. Rojas might be back this weekend. It sounds unlikely the others will make an appearance.
The Numbers:
I’m not seeing any line yet, presumably because the starter isn’t announced, but I’d guess the Cubs are around -150 to win if Thompson pitches, with the Marlins at +130 and the over/under around 7½. About a 58% chance of a victory in that case.
Cubs News:
Robert Stock was sent back down to AAA after Wednesday’s game, with Brad Wieck up to fill in a slot in the bullpen. One thing of note here is that it means Stock won’t be starting on Monday, which is sounding unlikely to be the date of Adbert Alzolay’s return, though I could be misreading the tea leaves there.
Cubs Thoughts:
They did it. They avoided the sweep. This is a good thing in and of itself, and it’s a better thing with the Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals all losing, and it keeps that 46-35 mark manageable at the end of June with another good two weeks here. Target splits the rest of the month:
Miami: 2-1
Los Angeles: 2-2
Cleveland/Milwaukee: 3-2
With Jake Arrieta and Alec Mills opposing Pablo López and Trevor Rogers the next two nights, this is marginally the Cubs’ best bet to win this weekend, so taking advantage of it would be nice and would guarantee at least another day alone in first, with the potential of building a multiple-game lead, though the Brewers are big favorites in Colorado, as they should be given the pitching matchup there. Expect the full bullpen to be available, with Craig Kimbrel throwing 19 pitches last night but only 19 pitches and doing it after three days of rest.
