Well, well, well. If it isn’t Justin Steele making me eat words.
Yesterday’s Joe on Justin:
We’ve gotten a nice sample out of Steele, and while there have been good moments, it hasn’t been very good. In eight starts, he’s got a 6.82 FIP. He’s flashed enough effectiveness and was strong enough out of the bullpen that a multi-inning relief role makes sense for next year, but he’s not a good option for the 2022 rotation, and that’s fine. That’s why you get a nice sample out of a guy.
Today’s Joe on Justin:
Well, Justin Steele threw a gem last night, one of the best outings by a Cubs starter all year. Seven innings. Seven strikeouts. Just one walk. Only three balls put in play at 100 mph or harder.
It was enough to bring Steele’s starting-pitcher FIP down to 5.98, which is still pretty bad, but it was also just such a good outing. I’m looking at Baseball Reference, and it looks like it was the second best game score by a Cubs starter all season long. So if it’s upside you’re looking for (and I would argue it is), there’s the upside. I guess it was always there in theory—I’m not a scout, so my apologies to those who are, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the scouting types were out there saying Steele could do something like this—but here it is in results. Is it enough to change the offseason approach to Steele? Change him to a starting pitching option, and as more than just a piggyback guy? I’ll leave that to the Cubs. Well, actually, let me just say that Steele and Adbert Alzolay seem more comparable now in terms of rotation upside and effective piggybacker downside. Ok, now I’ll leave it to the Cubs. Great note to end his year on. That’s why you get a nice sample out of a guy.
Other notes from last night:
- It’s always nice to lead off a game with a home run, and Rafael Ortega did just that while also reaching base two additional times.
- Ian Happ doubled again, and the most dramatic end-of-season race in baseball—Happ’s bid to stay at or above the league average at the plate—continues to heat up. 101 wRC+ with three games to play.
- Willson Contreras was on twice.
- Matt Duffy was on twice.
- Sergio Alcántara had a huge game, homering and singling twice.
- Jason Adam had a good outing out of the bullpen.
- David Bote smoked a single but later left the game with something with his shoulder. Might have seen the last of him for the season.
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The Diaspora:
Anthony Rizzo homered for the Yankees as they moved closer to clinching a postseason berth. Jorge Soler homered for Atlanta as they clinched their division crown.
Around the Division:
Adam Wainwright is officially coming back for the Cardinals, signing a one-year extension. He’s also been announced as their Wild Card starter for Wednesday, likely against Max Scherzer and the Dodgers.
Up Next:
Three with the Cards.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. St. Louis
When:
7:15 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Busch Stadium
Weather:
Temperatures in the 70’s, muggy, wind blowing out towards left as leisurely as could be.
Starting Pitchers:
TBA vs. Dakota Hudson
The Opponent:
Hudson’s making just his second outing of the year, the first coming a week ago as he returned from Tommy John surgery less than a year after they stitched things up over there. The rich get richer in St. Louis. 4.71 career FIP, but only 26, and has a 3.20 career ERA with a high groundball rate.
The Numbers:
Where odds are available, the Cubs are at +155 with the Cardinals at -170, for an implied Cubs win probability of about 37%. The over/under’s at eight and leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
Austin Romine joined Patrick Wisdom on what seems to be the Covid IL, with Erick Castillo taking his place but not being added to the 40-man roster (I don’t think this matters, I think Castillo can be a minor league free agent if he wishes either way, which is slightly different from Trent Giambrone, who’s Rule 5 eligible but I don’t believe qualified yet for minor league free agency—could be wrong on that, though).
Cubs Thoughts:
The Cubs enter the weekend 69-90, and while 90 losses is a tough threshold, hitting 70 wins might make it more tolerable. A win total in the 60’s? That’s bad. A win total in the 70’s? Merely mediocre, some might say.
