1. The Cubs have a .204 BABIP in June.
That isn’t going to last.
2. The Cubs have the second-worst K-rate and third-worst BB-rate in baseball in June.
That’s an actually bad sign.
3. The Cubs have been playing in a lot of pitchers’ parks.
Petco, AT&T, Citi Field, and Wrigley on some days are all places where it’s better to pitch than to hit.
4. The Cubs have been facing some good pitching…I think.
I haven’t dug into where the pitchers they’ve faced line up, but it’s hard to not face good pitching when you’re playing the Giants, Padres, and Mets, against whom the Cubs have played thirteen of the twenty June games to date.
5. So the Cubs offense is…TBD.
Yes, it’s fair to say it’s struggling, but it’s probably more accurate to say it’s had a terrible nine days than to say it’s had a bad month. Nine-day stretches can be terrible enough to make a month bad in total, so there’s that, but this isn’t obviously terrible, and there’s a little bit of a gut check here in that the Cubs are 10-10 on the month against one of the toughest stretches of schedule they’ll face all year.
One thing to recognize is that the offense needs to be good, not just average, for the Bats & Bullpen strategy to work. If you don’t have starting pitching, you need to score runs.
6. I’m not worried about Javy Báez.
Although one angle of this that’s intriguing to me is the possibility it introduces that David Ross thinks Anthony Rizzo wouldn’t handle being benched well, whereas Báez would. I don’t think that’s actually the breakdown of Ross’s thoughts (it seems more likely Báez’s benching was in part a response to Rizzo’s miscues over the weekend—a little bit of everyone better get their shit together), but always interesting to consider how managers approach different players, especially stars.
7. The Cubs should consider trading for Chris Flexen.
There’s been buzz lamenting how shallow the starting pitching market’s going to be at the deadline, but nobody seems to be talking about Chris Flexen, an affordable, multi-year guy who honestly might be worthy of perhaps the second-biggest haul of July (I’m still guessing Scherzer will be dealt, and yes, Kyle Gibson’s solid, but you could get Flexen for less than $10M through 2023 I mean this guy is *valuable*) in terms of what he does for a team WAR-wise and payroll-wise. Nobody, that is, except for us.
***
Around the Division:
It’s nice to play in the worst division in your sport. The Brewers broke the Diamondbacks’ losing streak. The Reds fell to the Twins in twelve. The Cardinals didn’t play. The Cubs remain tied for first place.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities entering today:
T-1. Milwaukee: 40-33, 57.5%
T-1. Cubs: 40-33, 25.2%
3. St. Louis: 36-36, 7.5%
4. Cincinnati: 35-36, 9.8%
5. Pittsburgh: 25-45, 0.0%
The Reds are up five in the eighth in Cincinnati as this is drafted. The Brewers have Freddy Peralta facing a building-back-up Zac Gallen tonight. The Cardinals trot Johan Oviedo out to oppose Tarik Skubal in Detroit.
Up Next:
Game 2, which is also the series finale.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Cleveland
When:
7:05 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Temperatures in the 60’s for most of the game, it appears, with winds apparently blowing across from right to left, and perhaps a little in? Five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Eli Morgan
The Opponent:
Morgan’s made two starts, one in May and one in June. They are the only starts of his major league career. They have not gone very well. He’s not much of a prospect, but he’s only 25 and I’m not one to doubt a pitcher coming out of Cleveland’s farm system.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -200 favorites, with their guests at +180 to win. That’s about a 63% shot at a win, according to the market, which is one of the biggest lines on the Cubs all year. Over/under’s at 8½ and favors the over.
Cubs News:
Kyle Ryan was sent straight back down yesterday to make room for Adbert Alzolay, but he can probably be expected to be up again in the next month or two. I haven’t seen anything else of much note. Off-day tomorrow.
Cubs Thoughts:
Win this game and you’ve still got a shot at finishing June on that 90-win pace. Yes, the offense is struggling, but again: The Cubs are, since this brutal stretch began on Memorial Day, 11-10, and they’re tied for first place, and they’re doing all of it with very little starting pitching, which is something that could theoretically change in a few weeks.
The schedule does get easier once the month ends, too. After next week’s Brewers series, the Cubs don’t play a team that currently has a winning record until August 6th, when they host the White Sox. Nine against the Rockies and Diamondbacks over that stretch. Seven against the Phillies and Nationals. Eleven against the Cardinals and Reds. And while the Brewers have it easy, too, they do have to go to Queens and host the White Sox before that Trade Deadline rolls around, so once the Cubs are done in Los Angeles this weekend, they’ve got the upper hand for a bit, and it’s a potentially crucial bit given its significance to the buying/selling/holding decision.
In short: Times are, at the very least, still pretty good. I might even drop the pretty and just call them good.
