Julio Rodríguez had a bad game yesterday, the 22-year-old Mariner merely doubling and scoring a run after recording four or more hits in four straight games. From Wednesday through Saturday, J-Rod went 17 for 22. Yesterday? 1 for 5. Thank goodness Seattle still won.
Rodríguez’s surge was so dramatic that after entering Wednesday’s game 27th in the majors in fWAR, he’s now into the top ten, and while he isn’t going to resurrect the AL MVP debate, he’s done enough to enter the conversation for second place, a position where current good answers include himself, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr., and Bobby Witt Jr. The first two of those plus the presumptive MVP (Shohei Ohtani) all play in the AL West alongside J-Rod. That brings us to the ultimate value of his performance. While he was surging, the Mariners were winning their second, third, fourth, fifth, and now sixth straight games, sweeping the Astros in a three-game set this weekend while the Rangers were swept by the Brewers, pulling Seattle from seven and a half games out of the division lead to three back, and from one and a half games outside of a Wild Card position to half a game up on the final spot, and only half a game back from Houston, who currently holds the 5-seed. Per FanGraphs, the Mariners stood about a 3-in-10 chance of making the playoffs on Wednesday morning. Today, they’re up to roughly 3-in-5. That’s valuable.
Across the country, things are not so rosy in the Bronx. After the AL East spent most of the year fielding only teams with winning records, the Yankees are now four games below .500, and yesterday marked their eighth straight loss, coming via sweep at home to the Boston Red Sox.
We wrote on Friday about the issues facing the Yankees, and we didn’t include Aaron Boone in that conversation at all. That is not because we think Boone isn’t a problem. It’s more a testament to how many problems the Yankees have. The bigger issue is the construction of the roster, but the fact that so many stars aren’t producing certainly doesn’t look good for the manager, and when teams underperform, the manager is often the first to go. If heads are going to roll in New York—and it would be something of a surprise if they didn’t at this point, if for no other reason than to satiate the fanbase’s fury—Boone’s will be the first. After six seasons back with the team for whom he became a trade–deadline–pickup–turned–folk–hero in 2003, Aaron Boone may be back on the market, with ESPN and the Chicago White Sox among hypothetical destinations.
Let’s get to the rest of it.
The Stars
In the midst of a disaster of a ninth inning on Friday (they ran themselves into a triple play after spending all day coming back from an Ohtani grand slam), Pete Fairbanks struck out Shohei Ohtani and wriggled out of a jam, and the Tampa Bay Rays escaped from Anaheim with the first win of the series. It spoiled Nolan Schanuel’s debut, but the 21-year-old who was drafted just more than a month ago out of FAU has a whole career ahead of him.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand had a nice night on Friday himself, going yard off Jordan Hicks to give the Reds a 1–0 walkoff victory over Toronto. One of so many prospects to earn a promotion for Cincinnati this year, Encarnacion-Strand is below replacement level by fWAR, but his .342 xwOBA might point towards some impending positive regression. Also, that home run is the kind of performance where the leverage adds a lot of value. I think the Reds would trade mediocrity in a lot of games for a home run right there, as well they should.
Bo Bichette returned for the Blue Jays on Saturday, resulting in a noisy Paul DeJong DFA, but if was Elly De La Cruz who provided the dramatics, scoring on an error on his own triple in the fourth for a little league inside-the-park home run. The Reds did, however, go on to lose.
I don’t have numbers available on this, but inside-the-park home runs seem to be up in recent days. There was one earlier this month by Stuart Fairchild. There was one recently by Bobby Witt Jr. Luke Raley had one last week. Add Jorge Mateo to the list, as he hit one yesterday during the same game in which Gunnar Henderson turned down a cycle, taking second for a double rather than stop for a single in the eighth inning of a blowout. That’s the move when you’re a rookie, even in a noncompetitive game. That’s also the move when your team is flying its highest and desperately trying not to upset the baseball gods.
Going back to Encarnacion-Strand and the leverage question: Luis Urías was supposed to be a fairly insignificant acquisition for the Red Sox at the deadline. On Saturday, he hit his second grand slam in three games, and he’s now eighth among their hitters in win probability added. Good pickup, Chaim.
Another good pickup? The Twins got Dallas Keuchel into their minor league system back in June. Yesterday, he took a perfect game into the seventh in his third Minnesota start, striking out three without allowing a run. It hasn’t gone great for Keuchel—this was his third start and those were his first three strikeouts—but he’s got respectable numbers, and he sure looked solid for a day.
Eury Pérez probably had the best outing of the weekend on the mound, striking out ten Dodgers while allowing two hits, no walks, and no runs over six innings. Things had been rough for the rookie coming in—he’d allowed six home runs over his last four starts, a stretch which began with him allowing six runs to Atlanta and only recording one out—but this is a great development for Miami, even if they lost both halves of the doubleheader in which it happened.
Eddie Rosario came through for Atlanta on Saturday, hitting a two-out, two-run home run in the eighth to take the lead from the Giants after trailing 5–4.
Justin Turner hit an emphatic three-run homer to break open the Red Sox–Yankees game yesterday, but Anthony Volpe answered with a three-run dinger of his own in the bottom half, setting the stage for another big Turner hit—an eventual game-winning RBI double—in the ninth after Isiah Kiner-Falefa was thrown out at home on a Volpe single in the eighth which would have given the Yankees the lead.
At the plate, Rafael Devers deserves a mention. Nine hits, two home runs over the three games. .692 average. .733 OBP. Good extension, Chaim.
Tony Gonsolin did not have a good weekend, allowing ten runs on Friday night before immediately heading to the IL with an elbow or forearm injury which is expected to keep him out for the rest of the season. Nevertheless, the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, and Lance Lynn headlining their playoff rotation, with Bobby Miller the fourth guy. I’d take that.
Lastly, Hurricane Hilary made an appearance, moving three games from Sunday to Saturday and creating a dramatic scene around Dodger Stadium, with much of Chavez Ravine flooded in footage going around the news. I’m not sure how Angel Stadium and Petco Park held up, but both the Angels and the Padres have home games scheduled tonight and they have not been rescheduled yet. The Dodgers are out of the state for the week.
The Series
From the NL perspective:
- The Dodgers took two of three from the Marlins, getting smacked on Friday but winning 3–1 twice on Saturday.
- The Braves took two of three from the Giants, rallying in the eighth to tie yesterday’s but losing it in the ninth.
- The Brewers swept the Rangers in three, only the first of which was close.
- The Phillies dropped two of three to the Nationals, the finale in Williamsport last night.
- The Cubs won two of three against the Royals, battling back after losing Friday afternoon.
- The Reds lost two of three to the Blue Jays, failing to take another one after the Friday walkoff.
- The Diamondbacks took three of four from the Padres, flipping their own script while cutting the knees out of some previously warranted San Diego optimism.
On the AL side:
- The Orioles swept the A’s in Oakland, taking care of business at a good time.
- The Rays won two of three in Anaheim, splitting Saturday’s doubleheader after the chaotic win Friday night.
- The Rangers were the victims of that sweep from the Brewers.
- The Astros were the victims of that sweep from the Mariners.
- The Blue Jays took two of three from the Reds, and while that lost them ground on their primary competition, they did close the gap to one game with Houston.
- The Red Sox swept the Yankees, hanging on to the playoff race.
- The Twins took two of three from the Pirates, hitting their marks.
- The Guardians dropped three of four to the Tigers, losing some important ground on Minnesota.
The Situation
The sweeps were big.
On the division side:
- The Mariners gained three games on both the Astros and the Rangers.
- The Twins gained a game and a half on the Guardians.
- The Orioles gained a game on the Rays.
- The Brewers gained one game on the Cubs and two games on the Reds.
On the Wild Card side, including Thursday’s result in San Diego:
- The Cubs gained a game on the Phillies, Giants, Reds, and Marlins. The Diamondbacks gained a game and a half on each. The Padres lost half a game on each of those (so two games on Arizona and one and a half on Chicago).
- The Mariners and Red Sox each gained three games on the Astros and Rangers and one game on the Blue Jays.
- The Angels lost two games on the Mariners and one game on the Blue Jays.
- The Yankees lost three games on the Mariners and two games on the Blue Jays.
With this, we’re willing to write the Angels and Yankees off. We didn’t expect to do this, but their playoff probabilities are down below those of the Tigers and Mets, per FanGraphs, and we wrote those teams off when they declined to buy at the deadline (which wasn’t unreasonable). Maybe they’ll make us regret this, but we’re willing to call this a 19-team playoff race which looks like this.
American League
- Division Favorites (>90%): Minnesota
- Making the Playoffs (>95%): Baltimore, Tampa Bay
- Playoff-Likely (>50%): Texas, Houston, Seattle, Toronto
- Competing: Boston, Cleveland
At least one of those four Playoff-Likely teams—all separated by only a game and a half—is going to be the odd man out. Opening this week among those, the Rangers play two in Arizona, the Astros host the Red Sox for four, the Mariners visit the White Sox for three, and the Blue Jays visit the Orioles for three. Seattle’s the last team in right now, with the Rangers one game ahead, the Astros half a game ahead, the Blue Jays half a game behind, and the Red Sox three games behind. One of those first three will win the AL West.
In the East, where the Orioles lead by three games, Tampa Bay is hosting the Rockies for three while the Orioles deal with Toronto.
In the Central, where the Twins are now six up on the Guardians, Minnesota plays two games in Milwaukee while the Guardians host the Dodgers for three.
National League
- In (>99%): Atlanta, Los Angeles
- Looking Good (>80%): Milwaukee, Philadelphia
- Playoff-Likely (>50%): San Francisco, Chicago (NL)
- Competing: Miami, Arizona, Cincinnati, San Diego
The Padres are next up on the chopping block, only one game ahead of the Mets and a full six games back of the Cubs, who are currently the last team in. They’re scheduled to host the Marlins for three, but I don’t know the situation there with the hurricane.
The Dodgers trail Atlanta by four games for the top NL seed. They’ll go to Cleveland for three while the Braves host three against the Mets.
The Brewers—now three games up on the Cubs and four up on the Reds—host the Twins for two games, getting Monday and Thursday off.
The Phillies—three and a half games ahead of the Diamondbacks/Reds/Marlins trio—host the Giants for three. The Giants are currently half a game ahead of the Cubs and 1.5 up on the Diamondbacks, Reds, and Marlins.
The Cubs are in Detroit to open the week, playing three there while the Diamondbacks host the Rangers for three and the Reds are scheduled to play three in Anaheim.
The Best Games
Tonight, the best matchup might be Diamondbacks rookie Slade Cecconi going against Jordan Montgomery of the Rangers, but James Paxton vs. Cristian Javier also could be good.
Tomorrow, it’s looking like Yusei Kikuchi will face Grayson Rodriguez in Baltimore. Elsewhere, Tanner Houck makes his return for the Red Sox and is lined up against Justin Verlander, while it appears George Kirby might square off with Mike Clevinger in Chicago. Bailey Ober is listed to oppose Wade Miley in Milwaukee. Andrew Abbott is scheduled to take the mound opposite Reid Detmers in Anaheim. Jesús Luzardo might face Blake Snell in San Diego. The biggest one, though, might be Zac Gallen vs. Jon Gray in Phoenix.
On Wednesday, Corbin Burnes hosts Kenta Maeda in an afternoon game, as does Michael Lorenzen vis-à-vis Alex Cobb. Shohei Ohtani pitches, listed to go against Brett Kennedy for the Reds. We’re likeliest to see Jack Flaherty against Kevin Gausman in Baltimore. Clayton Kershaw is set to face Xzavion Curry in Cleveland. Charlie Morton is opposite José Quintana in Atlanta.
On Thursday, we might see Lance Lynn square off with Gavin Williams, and we’ve got a listed matchup between Brayan Bello and J.P. France. José Berríos is listed for the Blue Jays, with Dean Kremer a possibility for the Orioles in that series finale.
Who’s Hot
On the team side, the Mariners’ six-game win streak is the longest active one in the majors, but the Dodgers have won 17 of 19 games this month. One intriguing team popping on this list is the Nationals, who are 11–5 since August 4th.
On the individual side, Bobby Witt Jr. is still the best player in the game on the month of August, even with Julio Rodríguez’s recent surge. Mookie Betts is up there with them. Since the All-Star Break, it’s a similar list, but Cody Bellinger and Freddie Freeman are in the mix as well.
For pitchers, Freddy Peralta is having the best August, with Kikuchi leading those who’ve only made three starts. Those two are the best since the All-Star Break.
