A national college basketball commentator tweeted something last night or this morning along the lines of, “I think Gabe Kalscheur’s been the key to Iowa State’s hot Big 12 start,” and it made me laugh. It’s not incorrect, and it’s not a bad thing to tweet, but it’s the kind of thing we basketball media people say when we haven’t followed a team closely because there are more than 100 tournament-relevant programs in college basketball and it’s impossible to follow them all without being even more of a wacko than most of us are. Yes, national media, Gabe Kalscheur’s playing well. He’s playing really, really well.
Kalscheur hasn’t been a bad player for Iowa State. This is a misconception. He had a rough go last year, but he and Tyrese Hunter were a defensive nightmare for opposing guards, and he was far from the offense’s only problem. Now that he’s on a hot shooting stretch, though? Holy cow. What a player.
Kalscheur’s story extends well beyond Ames, beginning at the college level in Minneapolis in the 2019 season, the one where he shot 41% from deep as a freshman for a Minnesota team that made the NCAA Tournament’s second round. Since then, the scoring struggles have been perplexing. Even this year, he’s only a 33% three-point shooter, and that’s after going 12-for-25 to open conference play. Kalscheur hasn’t necessarily permanently regained his stroke. What’s going on is that he’s scoring a lot more efficiently inside and the turnover issues that plagued him last season have receded, or at least look that way so far (the Big 12 has a way of ratcheting those back up, and we have a long way to go). Credit to KenPom for all these stats: Kalscheur’s true shooting percentage is 53.5%, compared to 44.6% last year (his career best is still 2019, at 57.6%). His two-point shooting percentage is also 53.5%, compared to 48.8% last year (which was his career best). He’s doing this while taking the most shots he’s ever taken—23.7% of those attempted by the Cyclones when he’s on the floor (last year was his career high, at 22.6%, which may have contributed to some of the inefficiency but again, here we are). Even at the free throw line, he’s back to a 77% shooter after dipping to 66% last year.
The impressive thing about this, and maybe it’s also a cause but who knows, is that Kalscheur’s doing this while seeing his role increase. Jaren Holmes takes a lot of shots, but not as many as Izaiah Brockington did. With Brockington and Hunter replaced by Holmes and Tamin Lipsey, Kalscheur’s backcourt role is larger than it was on the offensive side, and he’s stepping up to the challenge. With it, the Cyclones are off to a 4-0 start in Big 12 play, keeping pace so far with both Kansas and Kansas State.
What’s Going Wrong With Texas Tech?
After last night’s loss, Texas Tech is projecting to finish last in the Big 12, with KenPom saying their median conference record is 5-13 and their median pre-conference tournament record is 16-15. They’re down to 62nd in the country, again on KenPom, and at the moment are the only Big 12 team likely to miss the NCAA Tournament.
The talent exodus from Lubbock this offseason was noteworthy, and was tough for those of us who have some fondness for the program. At the same time, though, it was a little dramatic (Michigan had a player say Mark Adams forced Terrence Shannon Jr. to not transfer there, in a roundabout way), and with rumors going around that there are rumors which don’t make Mark Adams look good (rumors about rumors, yes, this is all far below the Mike Leach level of damning evidence, and Mike Leach was pretty thoroughly exonerated there), there’s an angle where you could justify saying Mark Adams is a good basketball coach but not great at running a college basketball program. With Chris Beard now also persona non grata (in, contrarily, an evidence-based sequence of events), is the program’s moment done? I don’t know the answer, but it’s on the table. I lean towards the answer being yes.
Poor Oklahoma
Oklahoma is now 1-3 in Big 12 play, and thank goodness for them that they knocked off Tech this weekend in overtime. They were so close to a breakthrough last night in Lawrence, but then Kansas did what Kansas does and emphatically reminded us why they’re the class of this league. It was a Bill Self masterclass, and KJ Adams continues to blossom.
There’s an angle here where KU didn’t play a particularly great game, start to finish, and that might bode poorly for ISU this weekend, if the Jayhawks bounce back and Iowa State comes back to earth defensively. Still, the guys are 4-0 going up against a 4-0 Kansas. That’s cause for excitement, and playing the game on the road, there’s no framework where there’s anything at all to lose.
Virginia Is the ACC Favorite
Virginia’s two losses behind Clemson in the ACC, and with Clemson hosting Louisville tonight, it’s likely to be a full two-game deficit. Virginia does, though, only play Clemson at home, and while Clemson’s playing well right now, Virginia has the better foundation. It’s fair to expect Virginia to keep it up. Last night’s defeat of UNC wasn’t pretty, but it was key. It kept that gap at two games, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if we looked up a week from tomorrow to UVA tied with the Tigers (and probably some others) atop the league. Just give it time. Virginia’s not a national contender, but they’re still good.
Kentucky…
Goodness. Goodness, goodness, goodness. I don’t know what’s going on, I don’t think anyone fully gets what’s going on, this team is bad. I’m guessing they’ll be in our NIT Bracketology next week if they don’t somehow upset Tennessee in Knoxville. If they get beat badly enough, they’ll probably be below our NIT Bracketology. The John Calipari experience has taken a wild turn south, and it looks worse because of that shocking loss to Saint Peter’s, but it’s not that different from 2021, or even from 2020 where they got away with a lot of unimpressive basketball.
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Viewing schedule for the evening, second screen rotation in italics:
College Basketball (the main courses)
- 7:00 PM EST: UConn @ Marquette (CBSSN)
- 7:00 PM EST: Alabama @ Arkansas (ESPN2)
- 9:00 PM EST: TCU @ Texas (ESPN2)
- 11:00 PM EST: Boise State @ UNLV (CBSSN)
College Basketball (other good games)
- 7:00 PM EST: Creighton @ Xavier (FS1)
- 7:00 PM EST: Baylor @ West Virginia (ESPN+)
NBA (best game, plus the Bulls)
- 7:00 PM EST: Bulls @ Washington (League Pass)
- 7:30 PM EST: New Orleans @ Boston (League Pass)
NHL (best game)
- 7:30 PM EST: Nashville @ Toronto (TNT)
