Connor McDavid might lift the Stanley Cup tonight. If he does, it’ll be a watershed moment in the NHL, hockey’s best current talent achieving his ultimate success while wearing the uniform of the greatest player who ever lived.
Much like Michael Jordan hangs over every NBA happening, Wayne Gretzky’s shadow rests on every stick and skate in today’s NHL. Unlike Jordan, though, a Herculean figure stuck in conflict with both the mortal world and his own immortality, Gretzky is fully divine within hockey’s canon, to the point of being untouchable. Paradoxically, given Gretzky’s more active presence than Jordan in and around the sport he led, Wayne Gretzky is a more distant god, a deity who visited and then left. The NBA is always ready for the next coming of Michael Jordan. With the NHL, a second Gretzky often feels less likely than a Winter Classic played on the frozen surface of Hell.
The statistics back this up:
Wayne Gretzky famously recorded more assists on his career (1,963) than the second-highest point-scorer, Jaromir Jagr, notched points (1,921).
Alexander Ovechkin might catch Gretzky in goals, but he’ll still finish his career with hardly a third of Gretzky’s assists. If his pace continues to slow, he might not catch Gretzky in goals for three more seasons, at which point he’d sit behind the Great One in goals per year.
Sidney Crosby, most commonly cited as the greatest active player, has averaged 84 points per year so far in his career. That number is dropping, and it’s already only 62% of Gretzky’s 136.
McDavid? He’s at 109, and you can fudge that up to 128 in Gretzky Points by adjusting for scoring averages over the relevant seasons, but McDavid’s likely three years away from the beginning of his decline. At this point in Gretzky’s career, Number 99 was averaging 180 points per campaign, forty percent higher than even our most generous McDavid number.
As for Nathan MacKinnon, already a Stanley Cup champion and this season’s Hart Trophy favorite: He’s only down in Crosby territory, at 82 points per season, and he, like McDavid, is yet to experience the post-prime years of his career.
Goal-scoring is not everything in hockey. But these players are all forwards, like Gretzky, and goal-scoring is, of course, half of the game. It’s more than half for skaters, when considering how goalies are less impactful upon scoring goals than forwards and defenders are upon preventing them. An all-time great could emerge at goalie or on the blue line, and we could find a way to compare value the way baseball’s statisticians can compare Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. But we haven’t had to do that yet.
Similarly, goal-scoring is dependent upon the quality of a player’s teammates. Gretzky played with some great players. But all these players have played with other greats. Again, we could find a better way to isolate an individual hockey player’s value than how many points they scored. Again, in the arena of Gretzky vs. History, we haven’t had to do that yet.
Connor McDavid might echo hockey’s greatest player tonight, bringing Edmonton its first Stanley Cup since two years after The Trade. If he does, though, it will only be an echo. Even after adjusting for era, it would take someone forty percent more prolific than McDavid to match Gretzky’s pace in points. Will that happen? If hockey is played into an infinite future, sure. From what we know, though, and from whatever insight we can gain from baseball (where Babe Ruth has ten seasons better than Shohei Ohtani’s best and Willie Mays has six), it’s extraordinarily unlikely. A player reaching his era’s equivalent of Gretzky’s 215-point peak borders on inconceivable. A player maintaining that sort of production over multiple seasons is, from what we can tell, impossible in the modern game. Impossible, that is, for anyone other than Gretzky.
Miscellany
- Tennessee’s athletic department is quietly on the ascent right now. They’re set to finish third in the Directors’ Cup once the final standings are tallied following tonight’s College World Series championship. With a maximum of one national championship this year by the Vols, that indicates a glut of programs playing late into the national postseason. Tennessee has competitive programs across the board. We’ve theorized before on this site that strong performance in small-money sports can foreshadow success on bigger stages. It’s a sign that the athletic department is hiring good coaches and operating smoothly. We haven’t tested this theory.
- On that topic: I missed last week that Chris Pezman is out as the athletic director at Houston. The parting seems amicable, but it does not appear mutual. Was this about football? Would it have been different if Houston basketball had stayed healthy and gotten a title one of these years? Chris Baldwin provides some context, but what he offers, as he notes, doesn’t explain the timing.
- Another thing I missed on Thursday (one I really wish I hadn’t, because you know how we feel about the House v. NCAA settlement) was Houston Christian legally challenging the House v. NCAA settlement. Houston Christian! Formerly Houston Baptist! Yes, a Division I school. For those who don’t know it, your guess is correct: This is not a strong athletic department. One winning season in their 16 years of Division I men’s basketball. A high-water mark of 5–5 this year in football, playing in a non-power FCS league. Is the settlement unfair to them? Of course. Their athletes have generated almost no economic value during Houston Christian’s time in this universe. Houston Christian’s share of the payout is disproportional to their responsibility. Is it absurd that Houston Christian’s a Division I program? Yes. We can keep it that way, but that remains a root problem. Division I is bigger than it manageably can be.
- On that topic. Hilarious quote from Lane Kiffin today to the New York Times: “My sense, our sense as coaches, is that the majority of rules, or not having rules now, have become all about the fear of being sued. So then we just eliminate rules. So anything you can make up that might be a lawsuit sometime down the road is eliminated.” I mean…yes. That’s exactly what’s happening. College sports, as an industry, is trying to stop breaking the law. I’m not criticizing Kiffin—this website adores Lane Kiffin—but imagine complaining about this at your workplace. Dammit! Why are we so set on making sure we don’t get sued?? Get those little shits back in the sweatshop!
- Max Scherzer’s return went well, and it’s possible this was part of a Royals return to earth, but it’s fun to have him back. Hopefully he stays healthy and effective.
- A nice start for the USMNT last night at Copa América. Bolivia is, however, the worst team in the field (at least by FIFA ranking), and Panama gets to play Bolivia last, meaning in the event Panama and the U.S. tie on Thursday, Panama would know the goal differential they’d probably need on Monday. That, in turn, would leave the U.S. needing to at least tie Uruguay to advance. In short: The “Gen Zeagles,” as the great Roger Bennett calls them, need to win on Thursday in Atlanta.
