The White Sox are underway against the Twins, trying to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of their division’s leaders. The series, which comes on the heels of three straight wins in San Francisco, is just the latest comedown from a hopeful moment for a franchise whose offseason title aspirations have withered in the heat of injuries, competition, and their own oft-overlooked mediocrity.
It’s unrealistic that the White Sox will be trade deadline sellers. Of the franchise’s few impending free agents, only José Abreu and Johnny Cueto would command significant returns, and it’s difficult to imagine the team reaching a point this month where they’re so far behind the Twins (and the AL East quartet, looking at the Wild Card race) that they’d deal a franchise icon like Abreu.
Still, the picture’s bleak. Even with a win today and a Guardians loss to the Tigers, the White Sox would end the front half of the week five and a half back of Minnesota, with Cleveland still there between the two, complicating matters. They entered today four and a half back of the Blue Jays, currently the American League’s last playoff team, and beyond the Guardians in that race, there are also the Mariners to consider, currently a full game up on the Sox. On paper, Chicago’s a better team than Cleveland, Minnesota, and Seattle. But even on paper, they’re not better enough to make them playoff-likely, and should they win their division, they’ll probably be a Wild Card Series underdog against whichever AL East team they face.
This Wild Card Series underdog piece is illustrative. Even last year, when the White Sox ran away with their division, their World Series title probability on FanGraphs was never higher than 15.0%, not much better than a 1-in-7 shot. The White Sox were, on paper, far and away the worst team in the playoffs, just one win better than the Red Sox and Yankees (who’d each played in a division with three other 90-win teams) and predictably dispatched quickly by the Astros in the ALDS. In 2020, the White Sox didn’t win their division, and nobody from their division (or from the interleague division their division got to play) won one of the best-of-three opening round pandemic playoff series. The White Sox have gotten the attention of a title contender these last few years. They have not been good enough to actually be one. They’ve been good enough to win the Central—and had the Twins not looked at the White Sox’ roster and deemed competitive status attainable this offseason, making short-term aggressive moves, they’d be significant favorites today, even though they trail the Guardians—but they haven’t been good enough to be seriously expected to compete with the Astros, Yankees, or others at the top of the Majors.
This gets worse when looking at the White Sox’ “window.” After next year, Yasmani Grandal, Lucas Giolito, and Adam Engel are all headed for free agency. After 2024, the list expands to include Lance Lynn, Tim Anderson, and Liam Hendriks. The franchise’s payroll is near an all-time high if not at an all-time high already, and little money is coming off the books this offseason. Meanwhile, should they buy, they have few assets to put on the table. Both Baseball America and Keith Law rated this franchise as having the worst farm system in baseball back in February.
The White Sox are probably going to try to buy, or try to hold pat and hope they can eke out a playoff berth, using their worst-in-baseball division to satiate fans by making themselves appear better than they are. If the decision were being made today, that would even be the right decision: FanGraphs has them nearly 50% likely to still make the playoff field.
But if the standings don’t change much—if the White Sox don’t make up that share of the deficit between now and August 2nd which FanGraphs expects them to make up—it might make a lot more sense to deal Abreu and Cueto (and maybe Hendriks and/or Kendall Graveman) than to keep them. That window isn’t set to be open very long. Reinforcements from the minors are not on their way. This is a mediocre team that banked on having wind in their sails from playing the easiest schedule in baseball. The Twins didn’t go along with the plan. The wind isn’t there. Now, they’re in the doldrums, and without action this trade deadline, they might be in for a slow, sad fall from grace punctuated by a big, infuriating selloff come 2024.
Around Baseball
A lot happens when you take the 4th of July weekend mostly off and then try to catch up on NBA free agency, so we’re just going to tackle the baseball side of things today, then address other things (that Baker Mayfield trade included) tomorrow. Here’s what’s going on in the Major Leagues, with scattered thoughts:
AL Central
Even with the White Sox sweeping the Giants, the Twins have been the big winner here since we last talked, stretching their lead over the Guardians from one game Friday morning to four and a half entering play today, as the Guardians dropped two of three against the Yankees then lost the first three games of a series in Detroit. The Twins, meanwhile, won two one-run games against Baltimore before losing on Sunday, then started this White Sox series with two wins.
In news of some sort for the Twins, bullpen coach Pete Maki has been promoted to fill the departed-for-LSU Wes Johnson’s role as pitching coach. In happy news for the White Sox, Liam Hendriks, Eloy Jiménez, and Adam Engel have all been activated from the Injured List.
The stage is well-set here for the Twins to pull away in this division race. They’ve crossed the 50% threshold on FanGraphs, and the Guardians, expected to be sellers entering the season, are getting back into that territory again. Lot of time left before the deadline, but there’s a four-game set in Minneapolis between the Twins and White Sox next weekend which leads into the All-Star Break. That could be where the dagger gets twisted.
AL East
The Yankees aren’t necessarily running away with this one—they’re one bad game tonight away from being swept by the Pirates—but they retain the best record in baseball, and their lead over the Rays, Red Sox, and Orioles sits in the double digits. The question for the Yankees right now is just how aggressively they buy at the deadline, and whether they can hold off the Astros for the top seed in the American League (something which could arguably be a disadvantage, comparing the AL’s prospective 4th and 5th seeds to the 3rd and 6th).
The Orioles continue their competitive stretch—they went 14-12 on the month of June, if my count’s correct—but for them, too, the die is cast.
It’s the Blue Jays, Rays, and Red Sox who are providing the action in the East, and entering today, they’re all within a game and a half of one another after Tampa Bay took the last three games to win back their five-game set in Toronto, a development the Blue Jays followed up by losing their first two out west against the A’s.
Boston gets a boost tonight, with Brayan Bello—their system’s top pitching prospect—making his debut against Corey Kluber and Tampa Bay. With Rich Hill recently joining Nathan Eovaldi on the IL with what the Red Sox said was “some tearing” in a ligament in his knee, Boston’s in need of starting pitching help. Eovaldi’s rehabbing. Chris Sale’s getting close to making his return. But with Michael Wacha’s health in doubt, even Sale and Eovaldi returning could leave the Red Sox needing a fourth starter alongside those two and Nick Pivetta. Bello performing well would go a long way.
The Rays continue to battle injuries themselves, transferring Brandon Lowe to the 60-day IL the other day. No setback for Lowe, but that injury’s gone on a while. Of course, simultaneously, yet another Ray is ridiculously hot, as Yandy Díaz is up to ten hits and four walks over his last five games.
As for the Blue Jays, well, missing the playoffs isn’t an imminent threat, but they do have some pitching problems, with the worst team pitching fWAR in the division. Keep an eye on that as the trade deadline approaches. A lot of it is Hyun-jin Ryu’s injury and the struggles of José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi, and the front end of the rotation is strong, with Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah, and Ross Stripling all pitching well, but Gausman’s wrestling an ankle issue and regardless, Toronto’s in want of help in both its rotation and its bullpen.
AL West
The Mariners are making a little surge, sweeping the Padres in San Diego to extend their recent hot stretch to a 12-3 record over their last fifteen games. They’ve got a big opportunity at home this weekend, playing four games against the scuffling Jays.
The Angels are not making any kind of surge. They’ve lost four straight now, they’re down to eight games below .500, and today their division championship probability on FanGraphs finally zeroed out. That number can pop back up—0.0% only means the number is less than 0.05%— but the writing’s on the wall. This team is sunk. They did pick up Touki Toussaint the other day, and they’ve promoted mid-level prospect Michael Stefanic, a former undrafted free agent, while designating Tyler Wade for assignment.
The A’s have some bad news to share about Frankie Montas, who was expected to be a prize pickup at the deadline but is now going to miss a start with shoulder inflammation.
Finally, the Astros have won eight straight and are now just four and a half back of the Yankees. They got Jake Odorizzi back from the IL on Monday, but his first start back did not go well.
(Sorry, nothing interesting about the Rangers.)
NL Central
Cubs bullets:
- Great weekend set against the Red Sox, taking the first two before narrowly missing the sweep on Sunday. Nice win yesterday against the Brewers as well after Monday’s slipped away. It feels good to stop a losing streak after the end of a little winning streak like that.
- Seiya Suzuki returned to the active roster on Monday, with Narciso Crook optioned to Des Moines in the corresponding move. It’s been a great two days for Suzuki, who hit an inside-the-park home run on Monday and an outside-the-park home run yesterday. As we often highlight, he is more essential than anyone to the Cubs’ next contending roster.
- Kyle Hendricks is going on the IL with a shoulder strain after leaving yesterday’s start having thrown just three innings. This likely kills any possibility of a trade this deadline, especially with Hendricks not set to be a free agent in the offseason, but if he comes back strong before August and someone makes a strong offer, the Cubs will and should listen.
- In other significant trade deadline news, Willson Contreras is out with a hamstring injury. There’s a temptation here to hope on this to somehow lead to a Contreras extension, but that’s hoping on a narrow possibility, and the downside is that a hurt Contreras could still get traded, just for a lower haul, or that Contreras could play out his contract in Chicago and then walk in free agency. We want a healthy Willson Contreras. What we want the Cubs to do with that healthy Contreras is what can differ (if you’re hoping on a narrow possibility, a trade and then re-sign is my pretty unrealistic dream).
- Marcus Stroman and Drew Smyly have begun making rehab starts, hopefully leaving them close to MLB returns. For Smyly, time is of the essence, as he was likely signed with some intention of being a flip-able asset.
- Nick Madrigal, Wade Miley, Frank Schwindel, and Daniel Norris are all rehabbing but not yet playing in live games.
- Alec Mills threw only seven pitches on Saturday and has since been placed on the IL with a lower back injury. Michael Rucker was recalled to take his place.
- David Bote’s battling shoulder soreness after a collision last week. In and out of action.
- Miguel Amaya is finally hitting in games again down on the farm. How he does over the back half of the season should have a decent amount to do with the Cubs’ approach to the catcher position this offseason.
For the Brewers and Cardinals, the gap’s up to three games with the Cardinals now having lost five of six, beginning with the Avisaíl García loss to the Marlins. Whichever team doesn’t win the division will be a Wild Card contender, or at least appears such at the moment, so the three games aren’t the only number to watch (the Cardinals are now percentage points behind the Phillies and two games ahead of the Giants for the last NL playoff spot).
As expected, the Brewers have gotten pitcher Aaron Ashby (forearm) and catcher Pedro Severino (PED suspension) back in recent days, but they’ve got their work cut out for them holding off the Cardinals, making the weeks ahead intriguing in the trade market for each.
The Cardinals are shutting Jack Flaherty down from throwing for at least two weeks, and they’re trying Austin Romine as their backup catcher, replacing struggling top prospect Ivan Herrera behind the also-struggling Andrew Knizner as Yadier Molina’s potential return date remains vague. Nolan Arenado remains hot, homering three times over his last five games.
In other trade-candidate-shoulder news, Tyler Mahle’s going on the IL with a shoulder strain. In other trade-candidate-pitcher news, José Quintana’s turning into a sought-after name, with last night’s seven-strikeout, zero-walk, five-inning performance the latest in a string of strong outings from the onetime admired lefty.
NL East
The Mets’ lead over Atlanta is down to two and a half games, the Phillies and Marlins have also gained ground since Friday morning, and the Mets have gone a perfectly fine 3-2 over that stretch, with Max Scherzer’s return from the IL phenomenal and Jacob deGrom now out on rehab assignment.
Atlanta got Eddie Rosario and Tyler Matzek back on Monday, have gotten three home runs out of Austin Riley over these last five games, and are still underdogs in the division but only narrowly. They’re now 25-5 since the beginning of June, and it’s worth remembering that FanGraphs has long had these guys as the best team in the entire MLB on paper. The Mets have their hands full.
The Phillies are, as mentioned, neck-and-neck with the Cardinals after taking two of three from said Cardinals this weekend. Kyle Schwarber’s tied for second in the Majors in home runs, Darick Hall’s got three home runs and a double in 23 plate appearances since coming up to help backfill Bryce Harper’s slot, and these guys might not be amazing on paper, but neither are the Cardinals or Giants, their current primary competition. Plus, you can guess the Phillies will, one way or another, be aggressive at the trade deadline. Still no timetable on Bryce Harper’s return. Ranger Suárez just went on the IL with back spasms.
Pay attention to the Marlins. Just a game below .500, the Marlins are better than even the White Sox on paper (per FanGraphs) and now sit just one game back of the Giants, three games out of playoff position. Sandy Alcantara threw eight scoreless innings last night against the Angels, striking out ten and walking no one. He’s now thrown 123.1 innings this year, 19 more than the next-closest pitcher, and his 1.82 ERA is third among qualified pitchers. By bWAR, he’s been the most valuable player in baseball this season. By FanGraphs’s WPA, he’s been the second-most impactful player in baseball this season. By fWAR, he’s been the 14th-most valuable player in baseball this season. So, probably some good luck, but regardless, a phenomenal year so far for the 26-year-old. Big opportunity this weekend in Queens for the Fish.
No news on competitive fronts for the Nationals, but Juan Soto is ok after a little calf injury scare and the Nats have exercised their 2023 options on Mike Rizzo and Dave Martinez as the team awaits its ownership change sometime in the next year or so.
NL West
Finally, the west. The Dodgers are hot, winning three of four against the Padres over the weekend and then taking the first two in their current set against the Rockies. Chris Taylor did break his foot, which is a damper, but with the Padres missing a step, Los Angeles now leads by five and a half games and is poised to run away with this division. Mookie Betts has been activated, Austin Barnes got a little two-year contract extension, and both Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman remain in the top ten in the National League in fWAR.
For the Padres, as the division slips away, attention turns to holding off the Phillies, Cardinals, and Giants while hopefully gaining the upper hand on whoever ends up second in the NL East. It’s a long road ahead, but to go back to that “on paper” talk, the Padres are not as good as either Atlanta or New York, creating some urgency in the short term to not let the gap grow too large. The Padres’ financial inflexibility has long been a story—they’re big “salary dump” speculation guys—which makes the deadline ahead dicey, and raises the possibility they might settle for that 5th seed and a Wild Card Series shot on the road. Lot to come there.
The Giants are in a rough patch, losers of six in a row and twelve of their last fourteen. Making matters worse, eight of those fourteen games have been played against the Reds, Pirates, Tigers, and Diamondbacks, and making matters even worse, Anthony DeSclafani’s out for the year (needing ankle surgery), and making matters even worse than that, Curt Casali hurt his oblique. San Fran’s still in the playoff hunt, but their probability of grabbing a bid has dropped, per FanGraphs, to roughly 1-in-3.
The Rockies and Diamondbacks aren’t horrifically far out of the hunt. The Diamondbacks are only six games back of playoff position, and the Rockies are only two games behind them. Will either turn into a deadline buyer? No, but the reason they’ve been written off has less to do with their own struggles than it does with the strength of their division wiping them out early. Times are fairly good for Arizona, who’s stocked with young talent (Daulton Varsho is hot again), and while times are not good for Colorado, Kris Bryant did finally hit the first home run of what will hopefully be many from him under that contract. Arizona recently put Ian Kennedy on the IL with a calf injury, possibly losing a trade deadline chip. Colorado recently put Antonio Senzatela on the IL with shoulder inflammation, but he’s under contract through 2027, so no trade impacts there.
**
Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
- 1:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Detroit, Bieber vs. Pineda (MLB TV)
- 2:10 PM EDT: Cubs @ Milwaukee, Sampson vs. Burnes (MLB TV)
- 2:10 PM EDT: Minnesota @ Chicago (AL), Ryan vs. Lynn (MLB TV)
- 3:37 PM EDT: Toronto @ Oakland, Berríos vs. Kaprielian (MLB TV)
- 7:00 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Atlanta, Mikolas vs. Fried (ESPN)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Boston, Kluber vs. Bello (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Arizona, Cobb vs. Kelly (MLB TV)
