It is customary, in hockey, for the trailing team to pull its goalie in the closing minutes of a game. The net is left unguarded, but by replacing the goalie with an extra skater, the trailing team gains an advantage, increasing their chances of tying the game. It’s like the lateral play at the end of a football game, or like a third base coach sending a runner more aggressively with two outs in extra innings.
Tonight, as it goes every night in the NHL, we will see multiple teams pull their respective goalies. What’s unusual about tonight is that the Flyers might not be trailing when they pull theirs.
Here’s the situation.
The Western Conference playoff field is set. There are some seedings to settle, but the eight teams who will continue their pursuit of a Stanley Cup are finalized. In the East, this is not the case. Four teams are still in the running for the final playoff spot. Here are the four:
- Washington Capitals: 89 points, 31 regulation wins, 1 game remaining (at Flyers, tonight)
- Detroit Red Wings: 89 points, 27 regulation wins, 1 game remaining (at Canadiens, tonight)
- Pittsburgh Penguins: 88 points, 32 regulation wins, 1 game remaining (at Islanders, tomorrow)
- Philadelphia Flyers: 87 points, 30 regulation wins, 1 game remaining (vs. Capitals, tonight)
In the NHL, teams gain two points for a win and one point for an overtime loss (this includes shootout losses). If teams are tied at the end of the season, the first tiebreaker is regulation wins. What this means for the Capitals is simple: Win against the Flyers and they’re in. The Red Wings are also in a simple place: Win against the Canadiens and they’re in with a Capitals loss, even if it comes in overtime. There are other permutations, but that’s what’s on the mind tonight for Washington and Detroit. For Philadelphia, it’s complicated.
For Philadelphia, winning doesn’t help if it comes in overtime. The Flyers need three things to happen in order to finish atop this heap of four: First, they need the Red Wings to lose in regulation. Second, they need the Penguins to lose in regulation. Third, they need to beat the Capitals, and in a manner which doesn’t give the Capitals the consolation point which accompanies an overtime loss. The Flyers do win a three-way tie over the Capitals and Red Wings (eventually, that hypothetical tiebreaker gets to the direct head-to-head results this year between Philadelphia and Washington, after ticking through regulation wins and regulation wins plus overtime wins). But to make that tie happen, they cannot allow this game to go to overtime.
So, that’s why the Flyers might pull their goalie in a tied game this evening. For those wondering, the game happens at the same time as Red Wings/Canadiens, although it’s hard to see why scoreboard-watching would discourage John Tortorella from calling Samuel Ersson over to the bench as the minutes tick down. Even if the Wings win has gone final, there’s nothing the Flyers can lose by getting that sixth skater on the ice.
Is the College Sports Transfer Market Biased?
I wonder sometimes if college basketball players are likelier to leave a school than stay, relative to their natural predisposition. Allow me to explain, using a very simple example.
If a college basketball player has a good season, he or she will likely want to capitalize on their newfound promise. Let’s say this player attends Xavier, a high-major school but not the highest-major school.
This player’s means to capitalize on the promise, in the NIL markets, are threefold: First, they can look for general NIL deals, real Name-Image-Likeness endorsement contracts and things of that sort. Second, they can look for specific NIL payments from Xavier boosters as an inducement to stay. Third, they can look for specific NIL payments from other schools’ boosters as an inducement to transfer to one of those schools. The first one, the player can do whether they stay or they go. The second and third are mutually exclusive.
The first situation can favor the player staying. Many players’ marketability is greater when tied to the school at which they made their name. The second and the third, however, can favor a player transferring, and here’s why:
This is only a theory, but I think a lot of boosters are more inclined to open their checkbooks to woo an incoming transfer to join than they are to woo an existing player to stay. It’s what the boosters are used to. Inducement payments as signing bonuses. This made sense when transferring required players to sacrifice a year of playing their sport. Now, it’s a different situation. Every college athlete in the country is always on a one-year contract.
I know there are NIL setups attached to players sticking around. I’m a big supporter of the concept that there’s value to continuity—that players themselves benefit from giving out hometown discounts. But I wonder if we’ll see fewer transfers when the market reaches equilibrium, in part thanks to boosters getting used to the concept that every offseason, they need to convince their players to stay all over again.
The Rest
MLB:
- The injuries are piling up again for the Braves. Ozzie Albies has a broken toe. The depth is better for them this year, but it’s still not great. They’re not as well-equipped as the Dodgers.
College basketball:
- BYU’s got their guy, and reviews are positive. Kevin Young, a Phoenix Suns assistant and renowned offensive mind, will be coming home to Utah, where he was born in 1981. Young has only been a head coach for one season, and it was nearly twenty years ago in the Irish Super League, but he’s Mormon, which makes him an option for BYU, and he’s highly thought of in NBA circles.
- The NBA circles piece of this is relevant, because two influential boosters at BYU are Danny Ainge and Ryan Smith. Smith, the founder of Qualtrics, is the owner of the Utah Jazz and the prospective owner of the NHL franchise formerly known as the Arizona Coyotes. Smith is having a busy week.
- Thanks at least in part to Smith, Young’s salary is reportedly going to be in the top quartile of the Big 12, at least to start. If the college basketball head coaching market is efficient, this is a great hire for BYU, because it took a lot of money to land Young. Unfortunately for BYU, the college basketball head coaching market is not efficient, and Young’s lack of college experience (he has never coached in the NCAA) and lack of head coaching experience make this a gamble. Given BYU’s options, it was a great gamble to make, but prospects are lower for Young than they are for his predecessor over at Kentucky.
The NBA:
- The Play-In Tournament starts tonight, and while Warriors/Kings is interesting, Lakers/Pelicans is a great test of how much playoff experience and being built for the playoffs matter. The Lakers, of course, are built around LeBron James, the most experienced playoff performer currently playing the sport. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are led in playoff experience by Jonas Valančiūnas, who made the Eastern Conference Finals once with the Raptors in 2016. Beyond backup big man Larry Nance Jr., I’m not sure anyone on the Pelicans has played in the NBA Finals.
- There’s a little bit of buzz again around the NBA’s games played requirement for awards consideration, because Donte DiVincenzo didn’t play 20 minutes in enough games to qualify for Most Improved Player consideration. Thankfully, I’m pretty sure DiVincenzo wasn’t going to win anyway. I’m guessing the NBA will make an alteration to the requirement this offseason, even if it’s merely to move Most Improved Player out from under the games played umbrella and in alongside Rookie of the Year and 6th Man of the Year as awards that don’t come with the 65-game minimum.
- Blake Griffin’s retiring, and that’s one of those that makes the phenomenon of age set in. I was in high school for his sophomore year at Oklahoma, and for those early years when the Clippers were finally getting good. How am I old enough for Blake Griffin to be retiring? He was so fun to watch dunk the ball.
Chicago, and Iowa State:
- Seiya Suzuki’s oblique injury is depressing, but the Cubs sure put together a nice win on the heels of the announcement. In the very stadium where last year’s team ran out of gas, they won in extra innings after Nico Hoerner scored from second on a wild pitch to tie the game in the top of the ninth. Ben Brown continued making his case to stay in the rotation. Mike Tauchman came up with a nice catch in right field and a big hit in extras. Yan Gomes made a perfect throw to catch Blaze Alexander stealing. Someone in the dugout seemed to notice Alexander was going to steal, yelling Nico Hoerner’s name to alert him before that pitch. Keegan Thompson turned in two scoreless extra innings of work under the shadow of the Manfred Man on second. A lot of contributors.
- The Blackhawks are in Las Vegas tonight. Two games left this year. They’re already locked into the second-worst record in the NHL, so no standings implications.
- Tyrese Hunter is into the transfer portal out of Texas. I’m curious what the motivation is. Hunter is only ranked 43rd right now on EvanMiya’s transfer rankings, directly below Great Osobor, Ryan Conwell, and Roddy Gayle. Those three are all good players, but Hunter has really plateaued since leaving Iowa State. Specifically, he’s not nearly as valuable defensively as he was his freshman year. TJ Otzelberger can coach. I wonder if Hunter’s worried about another year under Rodney Terry harming his development and NBA prospects. I wouldn’t think he’s looking for bigger money than what he could get in Austin, but then again, if NIL payments are signing bonuses…
