The Warriors won their fourth title of the Steph Curry era last night, and that’s a big deal. Four titles in an eight-year stretch is a big deal. Four titles (so far) in a thirteen-year career (so far) is a big deal. No active player has more titles than Steph Curry. Only one active athlete in any of the Big Four leagues has more titles than Steph Curry (thank you, StatMuse). Steph Curry has played for the same NBA team for his entire career. His most noteworthy off-court “scandal” originated with a possibly-joking comment pondering whether the moon landing was faked. He was undervalued coming out of high school. He’s been in our sports-world consciousness for almost fifteen years. He’s played through injury. He hasn’t notably thrown teammates under the bus. He has fun on the court. Steph Curry is everything the American public has asked its athletes to be. Why isn’t he the most popular athlete in this country? Why isn’t he the most popular athlete in this country by a mile?
This isn’t to say Curry isn’t popular. Of course he’s popular. It’s more an expression of astonishment that he doesn’t clearly hold the crown. Tom Brady broke up with his pregnant girlfriend, was embroiled in a large-scale cheating scandal, tried to force his way out of even Tampa Bay this offseason, and believes some bonkers things in the vague arena of science. LeBron James is a prima donna’s prima donna, stretching the definition of something as black-and-white as what constitutes a broken bone and pioneering the modern NBA superteam. Tiger Woods is a troubled, troubled man. Each of the three is captivating, and each offers pieces of inspiration, but comparing each to Steph Curry, the popularity ratio doesn’t add up. Serena Williams being more popular than Curry would make sense. Those three being more popular than Curry doesn’t make sense.
The answers, of course, are either that I’m wrong and Curry’s way more popular outside of my circles than I realize, or that we—we, Americans—don’t actually like the things we say we like. We don’t actually want athletes to do the things we ask them to do. What we’d really prefer is some combination of a Tom Brady/Tiger Woods arc—striking challenges (Woods), grave mistakes (Woods), preternatural ability (Woods) and unparalleled success (Brady). What we really want is, one could argue, assholes, of understandable origin or otherwise.
This could change as the Warriors play out these next few years. If the trio of Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green breaks up yet Curry and the Warriors continue to win, Curry will elevate in our consciousness. Even if they don’t break up, so long as they win another title or two and Curry continues to be the clear best player, Curry will elevate in our consciousness. But will he surpass Brady? Woods? LeBron? He should. If the broader public wants what it says it wants.
(By the way, Steve Kerr is the most impressive NBA coach of all time.)
The Cubs’ Losing Streak Hits Ten
That sentence kind of says it all. The Cubs have lost ten straight games.
Something to stress about baseball is that changes to future projections do happen, but they happen very slowly. The Cubs’ play so far has lowered numeric expectations for 2023 or 2024, because guys who are supposed to be big contributors—Kyle Hendricks, Marcus Stroman, Seiya Suzuki, Nick Madrigal—haven’t performed as well as expected, but it’s done it slowly. Christopher Morel’s play so far has raised numeric expectations for the rest of his career, but it’s done it slowly.
Meanwhile, Clint Frazier cleared waivers, so he can either stay in the Cubs organization or go try to sign on with another team. That says a lot about the decision to DFA him rather than Jason Heyward, in my opinion. It’s not that the Cubs are abnormally low on the guy. The league is low on the guy. Heyward may still have more upside in terms of pure value to the Cubs organization. In fact, he probably does, based on this. Might Frazier yet work out? Yes. But he’s not guaranteed to by any stretch.
Series with Atlanta this weekend at Wrigley. Thompson vs. Morton, Steele vs. Wright, Hendricks vs. Anderson. The big priorities, barring a surprise Suzuki activation, are that 1) Everyone stays healthy—this is essential when you’re thin on health and also preparing for a sell-off; 2) All three starters pitch well—they are collectively important to any hopes of playoff peripherality next year; 3) Morel stays hot—the longer he does this, the more believable its sustainability becomes long-term; 4) Hoerner/Happ/Higgins/Wisdom/Gomes play well—these guys are all more a known quantity than Morel, and I’ve listed them in order by importance, but they’re the guys who are both having good or good-enough years and are important to any hopes of that playoff peripherality next year. Position player performance in a single series is less important than starting pitcher performance in a single game because A) differing predictivity of recency makes it possible to draw more from one start than from even a five-game hitter sample and B) three games is a smaller sample than five anyway.
Another Issue for the Mets
Tylor Megill is hurt again for the Mets. Details are unclear, but he left last night’s start in the fourth inning.
The Mets’ rotation is supposed to go:
- Jacob deGrom
- Max Scherzer
- Carlos Carrasco
- Chris Bassitt
- Taijuan Walker
- (Megill)
- (David Peterson)
- (Trevor Williams)
Scherzer’s about to make his first rehab start, but if Megill misses a turn, they’re down to Williams as their fifth guy. If it gets past that, I wonder if they’d turn back to Seth Lugo.
June vs. October, Yadier Molina’s Bat vs. Yadier Molina’s Brain
The Cardinals are putting Yadier Molina on the IL with knee soreness, which is a tough situation because Molina, by our impressions, plays a huge role in the Cardinals’ success on the mound, but the Cardinals’ rotation is already suspect. Will the bottom fall out? On the offensive side, Molina’s been offensive at the plate (47 wRC+, 53% worse than an average MLB hitter and right in line with a good-hitting pitcher [Madison Bumgarner has a 44 career wRC+]), but Andrew Knizner, who’ll get most of the replacement starts, isn’t much better (63 wRC+).
The immediate interpretation, since it’s soreness, is that they’re trying to balance winning now with winning in the postseason, which is an increasingly likely destination for them these days, but at the same time, putting him on the IL ahead of a series in Boston and a series in Milwaukee (and then home sets against the Cubs and Marlins, plus possibly a road trip to Philadelphia and Atlanta) is a dicey time to do it. Which then makes one wonder: Maybe the real benefit here is getting a longer look at Iván Herrera, 22 years old and the 62nd-ranked prospect league-wide by FanGraphs. Herrera has been 25% better at the plate than the average AAA player, so if he can hit right now, a platoon involving him and Molina would make much, much more sense than a setup where Molina’s aging body has to take a ton of starts while Knizner mucks it up on the rare Molina off-days.
It’s a case where the numbers (bench Molina) do not align with the conventional wisdom (the Cardinals need Molina to win), but it’s a rare case where the Cardinals have habitual, inexplicable statistical anomalies and Molina’s such an unusual player that there’s a real possibility numbers do not adequately quantify this guy’s impact.
This Isn’t the Rays’ Year…?
I almost wrote a period. Couldn’t go through with it, though. I have nightmares about the Tampa Bay Rays.
Mike Zunino might be out a while after going on the IL a week ago (could be thoracic outlet syndrome), and that is a bad thing for a team who got 33 long balls from the guy a year ago despite him amassing only 375 plate appearances (Zunino was fourth in the Majors last year in fWAR/PA among hitters with 40 or more PA’s, trailing only Fernando Tatís Jr., Byron Buxton, and Mike Trout—and bWAR roughly agreed on his value, so it wasn’t a weird FanGraphs catcher-defense thing). The Rays are also a game ahead of Cleveland for the final AL playoff spot and a game and a half ahead of Boston for third in the AL East, which is a treacherous spot. Francisco Mejía’s below replacement level so far, and so is René Pinto. If Zunino’s out for months, do the Rays try to quickly find a catcher through trade? Or do they punt on 2022 and focus on next year? It seems like a situation where Willson Contreras would add substantial value, and the Rays have plenty of prospect capital, so they could even overpay a little to get him now, but I just don’t know what they’ll do. (Would…Would the Cubs trade Contreras to the Cardinals?)
How Long Do We Want This Series to Go?
The Avalanche and Lightning will play Game 2 tomorrow, and a question we—heavily invested in the Lightning in our Best Bets but hedging our way out of the Avalanche liability—are asking is what scenario is best for us. Our basic approach, right now, is to try to bet enough on the Avalanche every game to make up the corresponding fraction of liability. Translated: In Game 1, we bet enough on Colorado to wipe out a quarter of the liability, since they needed four more wins; in Game 2, we plan on betting enough on Colorado to wipe out a third of the liability, since they need three more wins. The plan is that if the Avalanche lose enough games at any point that we could wipe out all the liability with a bet on them to win the series and simultaneously still hold some upside on the Lightning, we will pivot to that move. We don’t know if that’ll ever get there, though, and we’re wary of a scenario in which we lose too many hedges, the odds don’t catch up, and we turn our outcomes into A) break even with the Avalanche or B) lose something with the Lightning.
We’ve said that our low-confidence picks are experimental, and this is an example of that. We couldn’t game out every scenario in advance of the playoffs starting, so we instead learn as they go on. At this point, though, we can game out a lot of scenarios. So that’s on the docket before tomorrow morning’s bets are posted. My best guess right now is that what would probably be best for us is the Avalanche taking a 2-0 lead and then losing one or both on the road, where the cost to bet on them to eliminate that corresponding-fractional liability is lower because their odds are lower. Because the upside increases on the Lightning every time the Avalanche hit one of our single-game hedges, though (since we get to keep that money whether the Lightning come back to win the series or not), we might also get to a spot where Colorado holds a 3-0 lead and we can increase our final single-game hedge or hedges on them such that them winning gives us a portfolio profit and we don’t have to wipe out our Lightning value. So, we may actually be hoping for an Avalanche sweep.
What do I think will happen in Game 2? I think the Avalanche win. I don’t trust Darcy Kuemper, but I do trust the numbers, and the Avalanche are the better team playing at home, even as the market slides more towards the Lightning and further away from the Avalanche, relative to Gelo, than it has all postseason.
***
The viewing schedule for the weekend is below, with the second screen rotation in italics.
Friday:
- 2:00 PM EDT: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma, College World Series (ESPN)
- 2:20 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Cubs, Morton vs. Thompson (MLB TV)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Texas vs. Notre Dame, College World Series (ESPN)
- 7:07 PM EDT: Yankees @ Blue Jays, Montgomery vs. Stripling (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Cardinals @ Red Sox, Wainwright vs. Wacha (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: White Sox @ Astros, Giolito vs. Valdez (Apple TV+)
- 10:10 PM EDT: Guardians @ Dodgers, Plesac vs. Kershaw (Apple TV+)
Saturday:
- 2:00 PM EDT: Stanford vs. Arkansas, College World Series (ESPN)
- 2:20 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Cubs, Wright vs. Steele (MLB TV)
- 3:07 PM EDT: Yankees @ Blue Jays, Taillon vs. Manoah (MLB TV)
- 4:10 PM EDT: White Sox @ Astros, Cueto vs. Verlander (MLB TV)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Auburn vs. Mississippi, College World Series (ESPN2)
- 7:15 PM EDT: Guardians @ Dodgers, Quantrill vs. Urías (FOX)
- 8:00 PM EDT: Lightning @ Avalanche, Game 2 (ABC)
Sunday:
- 1:00 PM EDT: F1 Canadian Grand Prix (ABC)
- 1:37 PM EDT: Yankees @ Blue Jays, Cole vs. Kikuchi (MLB TV)
- 1:40 PM EDT: Marlins @ Mets, Alcantara vs. Bassitt (MLB TV)
- 2:00 PM EDT: A&M/OU loser vs. Texas/ND loser, College World Series (ESPN)
- 2:20 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Cubs, Anderson vs. Hendricks (MLB TV)
- 4:10 PM EDT: Guardians @ Dodgers, Bieber vs. TBD (MLB TV)
- 7:00 PM EDT: A&M/OU winner vs. Texas/ND winner, College World Series (ESPN2)
- 7:00 PM EDT: White Sox @ Astros, TBD vs. Javier (ESPN)
