One fun thing that happens in an industry with massive barriers to entry is inefficiency. Some of the firms involved conduct their business in a way best described as “dumb.” Take the Colorado Rockies, or the Chicago Bears, or the Chicago Bulls, or the Chicago White Sox, or perhaps even certain political parties, including but not limited to the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. When competition is lesser, stupidity can be greater. It’s a beautiful relationship.
Because the Rockies and White Sox exist, we assumed they would combat each other for the crown of “dumbest deadline move.” To be fair, the Rockies are candidates, holding onto Ryan McMahon. But if reporting this weekend from Jeff Passan and Jon Heyman holds true, the Oakland A’s may have something to say about the crown. Yes, the franchise that still nominally employs Billy Beane. Those guys. They’re considering holding on to Brent Rooker.
Who is Brent Rooker? He’s a 29-year-old outfielder, and he’s having a career year. Fifth in the American League in home runs. Third in the American League in slugging percentage. Tenth in the American League at getting on base. By fWAR, Rooker has been better this year than all but one player in the AL West, outperforming every single Astro, Ranger, and Angel, not to mention the Padres and nearly the entire National League Central as well. At 29, with a good year last year but one nothing like this, Rooker is likely peaking, and with 31 just two years away, the aging arc approaches. Because he’s a late bloomer, he’s still paid the league minimum. He won’t become arbitration eligible until this offseason or next.
The A’s, meanwhile, have no plans to contend in the next three years. At least! Their Las Vegas stadium won’t be ready until 2028. They’ve agreed with the Sacramento River Cats on a three-year partnership to tide them over. Surely, the A’s do not plan to contend in Sacramento. The A’s have no use for Brent Rooker. Why would they keep him?
If this is a smart move, the A’s are merely saying this in an effort to drive up the price, and they’re doing a good job of bluffing. That’s the one explanation that makes sense. Otherwise, this seems likeliest to be an attempt to pretend to attempt to contend. That is, an exercise in looking like they’re trying to win during the Sacramento years. We’ve wondered before whom the A’s might possibly sign in free agency these next three offseasons. They may have wondered the same thing. Poor Rooker. He’s going to see his face all over Sacramento, isn’t he?
Miscellany – Miscellany
- So Jordan Love’s the highest-paid player in the NFL, the latest good-enough quarterback to take the ever-temporary crown. On the Packers side, it’s telling how much this is a bet on their own drafting and development. As plenty have pointed out, the in-game sample on Love is good on the aggregate, but it isn’t that big. As much as the Packers are betting on Love, they’re betting on themselves. On the contract side? I’m curious just how fast the salary cap is going to keep rising, and whether/how that will change future iterations of this cycle. When the next CBA negotiations come, is one side going to ask for more stability? Which one? What happens if there’s a downturn in revenue, possibly thanks to another external shock? It’s such a wacky phenomenon, this “highest-paid player” game. It doesn’t seem economically stable for players to so consistently be paid such strange amounts relative to one another. Again, things get inefficient when the negotiators—in this case, the NFL and NFLPA—are both monopolies.
- There’s a lot to be said about why Kevin Durant’s injury has been handled so differently from Kawhi Leonard’s. There’s also a lot to be asked. At the core of it, I think the most interesting partis that Durant—perhaps the ultimate superteam guy—was a player Team USA felt it could count on when it mattered, while Leonard—once known for defense and “board man gets paid”—wasn’t. Maybe that’s unfair. But that’s kind of how it went down, right?
- Dan Murphy published a helpful check-in yesterday on the House v. NCAA settlement. In there, he includes that the final ruling from Judge Claudia Wilken as to whether the settlement is approved is expected in mid-March. He also names mid-January as the deadline for relevant athletes to opt out, and mentions that if the number of opt-outs hits a certain threshold, the NCAA can back out of the deal. He does not mention whether the settlement could be appealed (I’m still unclear on whether Wilken has final power), and he cites Charlie Baker acknowledging the settlement is not a final solution. Meanwhile, those pursuing Fontenot v. NCAA are aiming higher. Here’s something from Sportico on the Fontenot side adding more plaintiffs last week. A lot to come.
Miscellany – Trades
Some notable trades that have happened since we blogged on Friday, and associated thoughts:
- I’m surprised by the Rays’ selloff. Really, really surprised. I thought it would be more of a retooling. Maybe they have the farm system pieces ready, but it seems like a full-on sale. I will say: None of the deals seem outlandish in and of themselves. But together, they add up to a lot. Here’s a lot more on Isaac Paredes, as the trade pertains to the Cubs. I like the Eflin pickup for the Orioles, who need starting pitching. I dislike the Jason Adam trade for the Padres, but relief pitching is weird. You kind of have to overpay for it, for the sake of having options down the stretch. It’s a hot-and-cold position, and having a lot of arms increases the chances one will be hot.
- Danny Jansen hasn’t hit as well as normal this year, but the bat should still be there, and Fenway Park’s a nice place for righties with power. Maybe it’s because Red Sox home uniforms look so good dirty, but my perception of Red Sox catchers always exceeds their real production.
- I don’t know that Carlos Estévez is particularly good. This is the first season he’s ever posted a FIP under 3.84, and that 3.84 season came seven years ago. Again, I get why the Phillies did it, but this feels like acquiring a closer for the sake of having a closer. Acquiring a reliever is great. Another option. Acquiring a new closer is scary. It’s harder to move them in and out of different roles. I’m guessing Phillies fans are going to be disappointed when he isn’t perfect, and I’m guessing he’s going to be far from perfect.
- Jesse Winker is a nice pickup for the Mets. Role players for Wild Card contenders. Classic for a reason.
- Are the Rangers ok? They picked a weird time to get swept by a non-contender. Carson Kelly should help, but they’re back to a situation of possibly being too far gone. If they lose tonight, it might be worth asking some questions about last-minute sales. Their playoff probability on FanGraphs is in danger of reaching single digits again.
- I’m curious if the Royals will try to use Michael Lorenzen out of the bullpen, rather than as a starter or a swingman. Their need is much greater there, and he’s been better as a reliever both this year and over his career.
- The player to be named later could prove consequential to the White Sox in the Erick Fedde trade. I’ll be interested to see what becomes of Tommy Edman’s health. I’m assuming the Dodgers have some contingencies built in to that one. Overall, I like it for the Dodgers because I think highly of Edman, I like it for Michael Kopech because it’s good to escape the White Sox, I feel fine about it for the Cardinals because Fedde and Tommy Pham are such Cardinals, and I feel terrible for Miguel Vargas, who went from being a Dodgers prospect to a White Sox starter in the span of about a year.
- The Mariners and Blue Jays joining forces makes a weird amount of sense. Seattle is fairly Canadian, I suppose. In all the ways that don’t include youth hockey culture.
Plenty more tomorrow, I’m sure, after plenty more tonight.
Note: A previous version of this post referred to the “players” to be named later heading to the White Sox. It has been corrected to reflect that the White Sox only got one player. Upon further reflection, we probably shouldn’t have mentioned this at all, because the PTNBL could be replaced by cash. Our bad!
