The debate over which college football program is the strongest right now is a good one. There are two plausible answers, and the perspective largely depends on whether you weight the next year as the proving ground or the next five years as more important.
For college basketball, the debate is even better.
Looking at the list of recent national champions, and looking at where teams finished this year, there are probably only four contenders for the title. We’ll list five, because we’re annually high on Houston.
The honorable mention is Houston, who’s finished in the KenPom top five for three straight seasons. They’re the only team in the country who can say that. It hasn’t turned into a title yet, but if you had to bet on a team to win one in the next five years or so, Houston would be near the top of the list. That’s kind of the point of this exercise. Which program is in the best shape right now?
The other four, as we see them, are UConn, Kansas, Baylor, and Gonzaga. The likely national champion this year, the two most recent champions, and the team that’s been the most consistently in the title mix over the recent era.
UConn may be an aberration, but it’s hard to argue with the rings. If the Huskies take care of business, this is their third title since 2010. You have to expand the sample back to 2005 to get another team to that level, and if you go to 2004? UConn, with two more wins this weekend, would be in front again.
The problem with UConn is that each of their titles has come in a chaotic tournament and the years between have been marred by low lows. This is the best team they’ve had since 2011, but there’s going to be a temptation, if they win this, to treat it more like 2014 and 2011 than like Villanova’s in 2018. There’s also the sustainability question, but the follow up to that is, “Why not?” The recruiting strength is there. Dan Hurley is proving himself as a coach. UConn is a powerhouse again, and perhaps the best lesson of the Kevin Ollie rollercoaster is that if things do go wrong, this program can bounce right back.
Kansas won it all last year and was the best team in 2020 when things shut down. They’re a force in recruiting, they consistently win the best conference in the country, and their coach is only 60, with little annual chatter about a departure. Like UConn, Kansas is a basketball school. All of these are basketball schools, really. That’s probably necessary to be the best at it.
Baylor grabbed its title in 2021 and has been a top-three seed in each of the last three tournaments. Scott Drew took a long time to make the Final Four, and he hasn’t made one since the Bears took the trophy, but Baylor just keeps getting great players in that door, and Drew keeps getting a lot out of them, and that’s what you want. With Texas not even seeming to try to poach him, he appears set for the moment there too, and he’s only 52. We seem to have a lot of Scott Drew ahead of us.
The last is Gonzaga. Gonzaga is, I would venture, likely to be KenPom’s preseason #1 more often than anyone else as long as Mark Few can do what he’s currently doing. Two questions follow from that. The first is whether Mark Few can do what he’s currently doing. He’s 60, like Bill Self, and you would think that if someone were to come calling, he would have answered by now. He has his kingdom, and things are going well. The second is whether things are really going well, and if it really matters to be KenPom’s preseason #1. I would personally say it does. It means you have the best roster in the country, and given Few’s made the Sweet Sixteen in each of the last eight tournaments, I’d say Gonzaga is turning that roster into results. Is there a hump to get over? Yes. But it’s less concerning when a team struggles to win the title than it is when they struggle to win in the tournament, period. Gonzaga, even with the early exit last year, is 12–3 in its last fifteen tournament games. That’s a great win percentage.
I don’t know what the correct answer is, probably because there isn’t one. I’d suspect that just as I’d answer Alabama to the football question but be in the minority, my Gonzaga answer will be in the minority as well. To me, they’re the best bet to win three or more titles in the next ten years.
As for teams who didn’t make the list: UCLA had a great run with this class, but Mick Cronin now needs to replicate it, and the 2021 team was one that got hot at the right time—it didn’t play a complete good season. Duke is still in transition, and Jon Scheyer’s first year went well but it didn’t go perfectly. Virginia, Villanova, and UNC are each struggling to make the tournament, so they’re out. Purdue has a big bogeyman under its bed, and hasn’t really ever been title-level good. I think it’s four programs and then Houston. Personally. But hey—we wrote about it in the first place because it’s good fodder for arguments.
Aaron Rodgers Wouldn’t Talk to Gute
There’s a lot of Aaron Rodgers buzz right now, but the only big news on that front from the NFL’s meetings this week is that Brian Gutekunst said Rodgers wouldn’t respond to the teams’ contacts over the last two months.
I don’t see why Gutekunst would lie about this, and this doesn’t seem out of character for the present iteration of Aaron Rodgers. He’s a weird guy. What does it mean, beyond that? Probably nothing. There’s a chance this escalates into a feud which leaves a bad taste, but it probably means nothing. It’s probably going to be a lot like the Packers’ current relationship with Brett Favre—weird, but full of great memories.
The Cubs Extended Nico Hoerner
Nico Hoerner has reportedly signed a three-year extension worth $35M. That’s three years beyond this year. I admittedly haven’t read up too much on it, but I believe this keeps him in Chicago for one year beyond where the arbitration system had it, and it seems to guarantee him expected money while giving the Cubs that extra year at a hopefully good price (the 2026 salary is $20M, which currently looks like a great price for 2026 if Hoerner precisely meets expectations after last year’s breakout). It’s not a blockbuster, but that’s the point: Jed Hoyer’s philosophy seems to be that blockbusters are dumb. Theo Epstein seemed to share that philosophy, especially towards the end. This is a continued bet by the Cubs on themselves, and it’s a bit of a feel-good note to start the year. All good for us.
MLB Betting Plan
We will be doing a mix of published MLB betting this year, but if you want to get your affairs in order: We’ll start on Thursday with Opening Day, and for the beginning of the year we’ll have two futures per weekday and one game pick per day. For the futures portfolio, we’ll have 500 units intended to be actively bet, plus 250 in reserve for potential hedges. Plenty more on this to come, but wanted to share all that. The only other thing to know, I suppose, is that in a few weeks we may expand to betting on every single game a few days of the week. We’ll explain if we get there.
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NIT Final Four tonight, so plenty more from us tomorrow. Thanks for reading.
