When a rising NBA team makes the Finals or the conference finals for the first time, it’s natural to look at the franchise through a “window opening” lens. The Timberwolves’ best player is 22 years old. The Timberwolves’ rotation is deep and entirely signed through next season. Everything is good right now for Minnesota. The present is the focus, but it’s hard not to mention the future.
It’s with that glance towards next year that an ominous caveat keeps making the rounds in national NBA coverage. Some variant of, “The only thing that could screw this thing up is ownership dysfunction.” Why is that relevant? Well, current owner Glen Taylor is headed to arbitration with possible future owners Marc Lore (the Jet.com guy) and Alex Rodriguez (yep, A-Rod, same Alex Rodriguez).
The heart of the dispute, legally, is whether Lore and Rodriguez had the final payment installment for the franchise ready on time. Taylor says they missed the deadline. Lore and Rodriguez say their contract entitled them to a 90-day extension while they wait for some procedural processing from the NBA.
On Taylor’s side, there’s suspicion that he wants to backtrack out of what’s now a terrible business deal. Not only have the Wolves gotten better, but NBA (and WNBA—the Lynx are included) franchise values continue to skyrocket. On Lore and Rodriguez’s side, there’s suspicion that they didn’t have all their ducks in a row.
Lore remains busy with entrepreneurial-style pursuits, some of which—most notably Telosa, his proposed utopian society—carry a flavor of the egotistical naivete he displayed when, in an attempt to demonstrate his seriousness about the T-Wolves, he cited that he’d built his own “NBA modeling” in order to “be in the know on exactly what players are worth.” There’s nothing wrong with experimenting with one’s own numbers without prior experience, but that being the specific example he cited was odd. It’s only one quote. But he didn’t say he was bringing the best NBA economists in the field to Minneapolis. Regardless, it’s fair to question Lore’s practicality and wisdom in spheres outside of eCommerce, and in a partnership with A-Rod, you would hope the proven businessman would be the down-to-earth one.
What the Wolves really have, then, are two categories of questions:
- First, who will own the team when this summer’s binding arbitration is settled? Will whatever transition takes place go smoothly?
- Second, will the ownership itself do a good job? Taylor, after decades of competitive struggles, suddenly has one of the NBA’s three best-oiled machines on his hands. Can he maintain it? If it’s Lore and Rodriguez instead, can they?
The focus in Minnesota, again, is rightly on tonight and the next four to fourteen games. But this is the situation in the background. It will be decided in something adjacent to court.
Tanking Works: Dallas Mavericks Edition
The most insipid instance of tanking in NBA history happened last spring when the Mavericks, despite retaining a theoretical path to the NBA Finals, appeared to intentionally lose a game in order to miss the Play-In Tournament and retain their first-round draft pick. The pick was top-ten protected, meaning if it fell outside the top ten, it belonged to the Knicks through the Kristaps Porziņģis trade. By losing their final regular season game, the Mavericks kept the pick in the top ten, eventually turning it into Dereck Lively II via trade. Lively has become a solid role player for Dallas in his rookie season, second on the team in postseason rebounds after finishing fifth on the team in regular season +/–.
Is Lively the difference-maker for this Dallas team? Doubtful. But he could be, one day. More relevantly, all of Luka Dončić, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Anthony Edwards were once drafted in the top three. The Mavericks didn’t technically draft Dončić—they traded for him—but they did use a top-five pick in the trade.
Where are we going with all of this?
It’s not about the Mavs.
Top-three, top-five, and top-ten draft picks are valuable. Losing helps NBA teams win. It’s not the only ingredient—a lot else has to then go right, most of which depends on the franchise executing everything beyond the tanking part—but these playoffs are, in a roundabout way, a testament to The Process. For the three likeliest teams to win this year’s title, the losses have borne fruit.
The Rest
The NBA:
- I did think after Game 2 in New York that the Pacers had missed their chance. So, take the following for what it’s worth: I think the Pacers missed their chance. We talked yesterday about how the Celtics will give teams opportunities, but maybe only a couple over the course of a series. They gave the Pacers one last night. The Pacers didn’t take it. As far as bad Celtics games go, this was a pretty good one, especially given how shorthanded they were inside, but while this all translates to “great game by the Pacers,” we’re left with the same outcome: The Pacers played a very good game and the Celtics weren’t their best, and the Pacers turned that into a loss with their late-game sloppiness. What a shot by Jaylen Brown, but this was an Indiana loss more than a Boston win.
- I’m curious about whether the Wolves will have any hangover tonight after winning Game 7 the way they did on Sunday. That was an emotional, adrenaline-heavy victory. Now, they’re the series favorites, and they’ve got some cushion again. That’s a tough recipe.
The NHL:
- The narrative on the Rangers continues to be that they aren’t built for the playoffs, and/or that Igor Shesterkin can’t play like this forever. The Rangers still won the Presidents’ Trophy and have since gone 8–2 against two playoff teams, a pair which included the Stanley Cup favorite entering the postseason. I’m not buying that they should be a home underdog against the Panthers. On neutral ice, fine. But not at MSG.
Chicago:
- A great return for Nico Hoerner last night, not because he played particularly well but because he put the ball in play which won the Cubs the game. We’ve seen all the hype about the Cubs’ bullpen, which had a great night, and we don’t want to discount that performance. But. Bullpen sample sizes are small enough already. We don’t have to shrink them to less than a month. On the season, Cubs relievers are 15th in the majors in fWAR, 13th in FIP, and 11th in Win Probability Added. It’s been a respectable bullpen. So far.
- Joining that bullpen is Kyle Hendricks. It was announced yesterday. It’s possible Hendricks will still do some starting—tomorrow’s been labeled a bullpen game, and there’s no listed starter as of yet—but if he does, it will be the kind of start that’s only supposed to last two or three innings. Coming off a strong 2023, it’s way too early to be writing off Hendricks’s career, but he’s had a terrible beginning to the season, to the point where he’d need to pitch like Mason Miller for two straight starts just to get his season stats back to replacement-level.
- Lastly, the quarterfinal schedule is out for hockey worlds. Games tomorrow involving Blackhawks…Canada (Bedard) vs. Slovakia; Switzerland (Kurashev) vs. Germany (Reichel); USA (Jones, Vlasic) vs. Czech Republic (Mrazek). The USA game is at 1:20 PM Eastern. The others are in the morning here in America.
The Packers, Iowa State:
- Bill Connelly’s SP+ projections are out for this fall, and Iowa State, first in the country in returning production, is 30th overall in the FBS. That’s fifth-best in the Big 12, behind Kansas State, Utah, Oklahoma State, and Arizona, but all those teams are within a touchdown of the Cyclones, as is Iowa. Not surprisingly, Iowa State’s defense is on the edge of Connelly’s top 25, while the offense is closer to the FBS median.
- Matt LaFleur said yesterday that the Packers had nearly 100% attendance for voluntary OTA’s, with even the extension-awaiting Jordan Love there to participate. Nice thing about having a young team. Curious if this is par for the course or if the Gutekunst Administration has intentionally prioritized anti-divas.
- LaFleur also relayed news on some smaller injuries, but nothing new that will impact training camp. It’s gone the other direction, actually. Kingsley Enagbare didn’t tear his ACL.
