College football has a trick to it. Every game is do-or-die, but most of the time, you get a second life, and a third isn’t impossible. For some teams, yes, it’s one-and-done, but for most of these guys? Tomorrow’s something of a free shot. There’s downside, but the upside is large. Let’s get into the games.
The Main Event: Notre Dame @ Ohio State
Ohio State is, even to haters like us (we’re suspicious given the Buckeyes’ lack of a signature victory in the Ryan Day era), most likely one of the four or five best football teams in the country. The question tomorrow is whether Notre Dame is as well.
Betting markets, famously accurate, doubt the Irish, and that’s fair. Marcus Freeman is a step better than Brian Kelly in the recruiting sphere, but Notre Dame is still out-talented, and Ohio State has more continuity as well. The Buckeye defense was suspect last year, and may be suspect again this year, but Notre Dame’s own defense is going to have to do some heroic work for the visitors to have much of a chance.
What does the game mean? For Notre Dame, the situation’s rather simple: If the Irish end up being good enough to run unbeaten through the ten clearly winnable games on their schedule, they’ll most likely either need to beat Ohio State tomorrow or beat Clemson in South Bend in November if they’re going to make the College Football Playoff. It isn’t quite as simple as that—it depends more than is often acknowledged upon what others do, Clemson among them (if Notre Dame loses tomorrow, Notre Dame would really like Clemson to win the ACC)—but Notre Dame is in a fairly straightforward situation.
For Ohio State, the question is not whether 12-1 would get them in. It would, barring a very specific scenario where they lose the conference championship and there are enough unbeaten Power Five champions and/or Notre Dame and…etc. The question is whether 11-2 would get them in, and the Buckeyes are trying to put off having to ask it for as long as they can.
The bigger thing, though, for Ohio State, is proving that they’re good. Last year, this team lost this game at home to a fine but not good Oregon team. They were later stomped by Michigan and struggled to beat Utah, Nebraska, and Penn State. That’s not a rousing success story, and for all the justified hype surrounding C.J. Stroud, the question remains that defense. If Ohio State crushes Notre Dame, then yes, we can believe they’re a top-four team. If Ohio State struggles but wins, or if Ohio State loses, watch them closely. They might not be as much a contender as the narrative has them.
The Undercards: Georgia vs. Oregon, Cincinnati @ Arkansas, Utah @ Florida, Houston @ UTSA
Four other games deserve attention, and we’ll start with the defending champions, who more or less host Oregon in Atlanta. Oregon…we’re pretty low on Oregon. It would be surprising to see them do much at all against the Dawgs. Georgia does have that tendency to allow opponents to stay in reach, though. So, we’ll see. If Oregon loses, it almost definitely needs to win out to make the playoff, and if Oregon loses badly, it’s hard to see them winning out. If Oregon wins, everything’s shaken up, but that doesn’t automatically make them good. They won in a situation like this last year. For Georgia, a loss would be a disaster and would imply that last year’s team was more one-hit wonder than the foundation of a powerhouse. UGA has a manageable SEC slate, but this one’s manageable too.
Elsewhere in the SEC East, Florida hosts Utah, and Utah might be the most interesting team in the sport. They came on strong down the stretch last year, pummeling Oregon twice over the final three weeks to rise from unranked at the start of November to a preseason AP Poll slot of 7th. Bill Connelly’s SP+ has them 12th, but with a schedule whose most difficult games are this one, a visit from USC, a trip to Eugene, and the Pac-12 Championship if this team does end up mattering, twelfth-best might be enough to get a top four ranking. Florida’s not expected to contend, but they’re a program that can get there, making this a long-term-progress measuring stick. Billy Napier seemed like a no-brainer hire. Winning his debut against a “top ten” opponent would be a great start.
Arkansas rounds out our SEC games of note, hosting Cincinnati in Fayetteville for what’s a big game for the Hogs but a monumental one for their guests. Cincinnati was a playoff team last year. They could well be a playoff team again. After this week, it’s hard to even find what their toughest game is. Beating an SEC West team—one that should spend most of the year ranked in all polls—would probably be enough to get them in again, provided it’s paired with only victories and few by small margins. As for the hosts? They play six teams in the SP+ top 25 this year. This is just one big contest among many. Audacious scheduling from Sam Pittman’s program.
Finally, Houston and UTSA. UTSA, playing in what could turn out to be the worst conference in the country, does not have much of a playoff shot. But after nearly going undefeated last year, they’ve got some cachet. Houston, for their part, is a primary character in Cincinnati’s story, and with enough good breaks could write some dreams of their own.
The Fillers: Illinois @ Indiana, TCU @ Colorado, North Carolina @ Appalachian State, Boise State @ Oregon State, Florida State vs. LSU, Clemson @ Georgia Tech
These are each the best game in their time slot, so a quick hitter on each:
- Illinois and Indiana are both trying to build positive momentum, and each could believably get there. Bowl eligibility is the first step to consistent bowl eligibility. Tom Allen is going to be on the hot seat if he doesn’t rebound from last year’s 2-10 (0-9) mark.
- TCU returns a lot of guys, and they’re good enough on paper to be in the mix for the Big 12’s second spot, especially given they play both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State at home. Colorado has none of this cause for excitement, but they’re hosting a questionable team at altitude on a Friday night. Sounds like a good time.
- UNC and Appalachian State are both not what they’ve nearly been in recent years, but it’s an in-state game between programs of note. And Boone is just so pretty. Good broadcast to start the day.
- Oregon State, as this space has covered aggressively, is playing for its life as a Power Five program. A good year wouldn’t necessarily save the Beavers, but it couldn’t hurt. Boise State remains a fine program with reasonable-enough hopes of pulling off what Cincinnati did last year, though they’ll need to both bounce back and have some other teams on their schedule step up.
- It’s Brian Kelly’s debut at LSU, and it’s in New Orleans on a Sunday night, and if he wants any idea of what things will look like if his tenure in Baton Rouge doesn’t go well, he can look across the sideline, where Mike Norvell is still trying to make something happen at FSU. The Seminoles have one of the better paths available in the ACC, hosting Clemson and not having to play Miami, so keep an eye on them as an ACC possibility, though they’re far from the playoff conversation.
- Finally, Clemson plays Georgia Tech at the Falcons’ stadium, and if Clemson doesn’t put up big yardage, a lot of questions should be asked about where this program stands. They can get away with being a one-dimensional team in this year’s ACC, but like Ohio State, they’re going to have to put together a really good team again before long if they want to stay a power. Some might argue this contributes to why the SEC is showing no interest in the school.
There are plenty of other games, and some might become big stories. Alabama, Michigan, and assorted lesser SEC schools all have playoff ambitions. The Big Ten West has some intriguing characters. BYU plays an interesting schedule and most likely isn’t a bad team. None are in dire danger, but things may be learned about anyone, not just the power players and those with convenient TV slots.
The 12-Team Playoff Is Coming
It’s official. The College Football Playoff has confirmed that the original 12-team playoff format is a go, the one where the six highest-ranked conference champions, regardless of Power Five status, join six wild cards in the single-elimination bracket, with four of the conference champions receiving first-round byes. There’s no word on a start date. Logistics would push towards a 2026 start. Money would push towards a 2024 start.
Iowa State vs. SEMO
SEMO, or Southeast Missouri State, has had its good years in the FCS, but this isn’t expected to be a great team Iowa State’s hosting tomorrow. The things to watch for, then, from the Cyclones, are efficiency and health. Check both those boxes and we’ll have about as much as we could ask for heading into next week’s trip east.
Cyclone Recruiting Check-In
More 2023 college basketball recruiting commitments are trickling in, and we haven’t looked at where Iowa State stacks up in a while.
Fourth in the country right now.
As we’ve said before, this isn’t as big of a deal as it would be in football. In football, your annual recruiting ranking is pretty closely tied to the level of talent and athleticism within your program. In basketball, recruiting classes ebb and flow in size, transfers have become prominent more quickly than in football, and the sport is less purely about talent and athleticism.
Still, the Cyclones are in good shape, and to give an estimate of how far we are through the cycle: 32 of the top 50 recruits (we’re using 247’s composite for all of this) have committed so far. So we’re getting close to being two-thirds complete. Lot of time to go—and Iowa State has to keep its commitments, which isn’t guaranteed—but a good spot, to be sure.
Spencer Strikeout
Holy shit.
Spencer Strider struck out 16 Rockies last night, walking none across eight scoreless innings to reestablish himself as the NL Rookie of the Year favorite over teammate Michael Harris II. An outrageous outing against an MLB opponent, and remember: Not only was this guy not a highly-touted prospect outside of Atlanta circles (where the well appeared so dry aside from Harris that Strider was touted by default), but he wasn’t even expected to get to the big leagues for another year or two. I don’t know if this is a stroke of good luck or a hallmark of a good organization, but it’s impressive.
Other results and news:
National League
The Mets kept pace in the East, rallying in the sixth and seventh to take their series over the Dodgers. They’re still seven games back in the race for home field advantage, but entering Labor Day Weekend with a three-game lead over the defending champions is a solid place to find oneself.
The Brewers did not keep pace in the Central, getting shut out by the Diamondbacks to open their weekend out west. Three back in the Wild Card race, six and a half back in the division. Can’t lose with your ace on the mound this time of year, and they did, as Merrill Kelly bested Brandon Woodruff.
Francisco Álvarez won’t be undergoing surgery on his injured ankle, but he still isn’t playing and it’s unlikely he’ll appear in the majors before the year is up.
Mike Soroka could still come back, coming off the 60-day IL but being optioned to AAA, at least for the moment.
American League
Are the Red Sox dead? Probably. But they did beat the Rangers in dramatic fashion at Fenway last night, coming back from an 8-3 eighth-inning deficit to win to win on a Rob Refsnyder walkoff single. Still seven and a half back of a playoff spot, but it was an exciting win.
Also clinging to life were the White Sox, who beat the Royals 7-1 to win a series, climb within a game of .500, and close their division gap to four games behind the Guardians, who fell to Baltimore. The Twins are now just one back of Cleveland, having not played.
The Mariners smoked the Tigers and head into tonight percentage points back of the Rays for the AL 4-seed. They keep rolling, as do the aforementioned O’s, who are now just one and a half behind Toronto.
In concerning news out of Detroit, Austin Meadows is going to miss the rest of the season to address his mental health. We wish him and his the best. Good for him and good for the Tigers that he’s taking this time.
The Red Sox may have won, but they’ve likely lost Tanner Houck for the season. He went on the IL a month ago with lower back inflammation, and while the prognosis then was fine, he’s now looking at surgery.
The Guardians’ one-game lead looks even more treacherous with today’s news that Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale are going on the IL. Civale has forearm inflammation. Plesac broke his hand, probably (according to Terry Francona) when he punched the ground after Jake Lamb took him deep in his last start. Not a great look when your manager’s the one offering that as the cause.
Oswald Peraza is up for the Yankees, a top prospect trying to inject some life in a crucial weekend set against the Rays. He isn’t a can’t-miss guy, and the lineup isn’t exactly the Yankees’ problem, but hopes are high in that world.
Danilo Gallinari: ACL After All
It turns out the injury was not just a torn meniscus.
Not a lot else to add on this. He’s probably out for the year. Tough blow for the Celtics, similar blow to what others will presumably suffer, still doesn’t mean the Celtics won’t suffer another similar blow themselves. Injuries stink.
Packers Transactions
Juwann Winfree is indeed on the practice squad. It doesn’t appear Ramiz Ahmed is yet, at least officially, though a spot remains even after re-signing Micah Abernathy to it after the safety cleared waivers.
Should F1 Have Playoffs?
This is probably heretical to some people, and what’s going on in IndyCar—which we’ll get into below—is a good example of a compelling title chase without a playoff structure, and even last year Formula 1 managed to get its championship to come down to the final laps. But it’s undeniable that NASCAR’s structure pivots focus away from just the top couple drivers and avoids entire seasons lost to boredom. I’m sure that there are some out there enjoying Max Verstappen’s dominance, but when dominance is as normal as it is in F1, it loses its mystique. It’s not impressive to dominate if someone dominates every other year.
That circuit is in the Netherlands this weekend, where Verstappen is expected to dominate.
Out in Oregon, IndyCar’s got its semi-final race, not in terms of a literal semifinal but as the penultimate contest of the season. Seven drivers still technically have a shot at the season title, with the top four of those—Will Power, Josef Newgarden, Scott Dixon, and Marcus Ericsson—only separated by 17 points apiece, meaning each controls his fate. Álex Palou, Scott McLaughlin, and Pato O’Ward would all need some help—the three are 43, 54, and 58 back of Power, respectively (you can theoretically make up something like fifty points in an IndyCar race)—but Palou did win here last year, and realistically, a win would very possibly cut the gap between him and Power in half. There’s an element for Palou & Co. where they need help from multiple angles—Will Power finishing tenth doesn’t much help anyone if Josef Newgarden finishes second—but it’s a compelling way to wind down the season.
Finally, NASCAR has a major this weekend, racing the Southern 500 at Darlington to kick off the playoffs. This round goes Darlington, Kansas, Bristol, and with Kansas newly competitive (thanks to the new generation of cars), it’s an intriguing set of three races. A lot should go down, and we’re at the stage where grievances pile up and retaliation comes with its biggest consequences.
Housekeeping
The college football model won’t be launched until Tuesday at the earliest, so no futures in that sport this week. Apologies again to any who are disappointed. Hopefully this is our last late launch.
We will be publishing some bits here and there over the weekend, including most notably two college football single-game plays tomorrow and a little recap of Saturday’s action come Sunday morning (also, we’ll have MLB futures as usual on Monday, even with the holiday). So please, check back for that. Thanks for being here, and have a great long weekend if your work allows it.
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Viewing schedule for the weekend, second screen rotation in italics:
College Football (of Significance or Convenient Time Slot)
- Friday, 7:00 PM EDT: Illinois @ Indiana (FS1)
- Friday, 10:00 PM EDT: TCU @ Colorado (ESPN)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: North Carolina @ Appalachian State (ESPNU)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EDT: SEMO @ Iowa State (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Georgia vs. Oregon (ABC)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Cincinnati @ Arkansas (ESPN)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Houston @ UTSA (CBSSN)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EDT: Utah @ Florida (ESPN)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT: Notre Dame @ Ohio State (ABC)
- Saturday, 10:30 PM EDT: Boise State @ Oregon State (ESPN)
- Sunday, 7:30 PM EDT: Florida State @ LSU (ABC)
- Monday, 8:00 PM EDT: Clemson @ Georgia Tech (ESPN)
MLB (of Significance)
- Friday, 6:35 PM EDT: Toronto @ Pittsburgh, Manoah vs. Oviedo (MLB TV)
- Friday, 7:05 PM EDT: Oakland @ Baltimore, Sears vs. Kremer (MLB TV)
- Friday, 7:10 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Tampa Bay, Germán vs. Sears (MLB TV)
- Friday, 7:10 PM EDT: Seattle @ Cleveland, Castillo vs. Morris (MLB TV)
- Friday, 7:10 PM EDT: Washington @ New York (NL), Gray vs. Peterson (MLB TV)
- Friday, 7:20 PM EDT: Miami @ Atlanta, Alcantara vs. Morton (Apple TV+)
- Friday, 8:10 PM EDT: Minnesota @ Chicago (AL), Gray vs. Martin (MLB TV)
- Friday, 8:15 PM EDT: Cubs @ St. Louis Sampson vs. Montgomery (MLB TV)
- Friday, 9:38 PM EDT: Houston @ Anaheim, McCullers vs. Detmers (MLB TV)
- Friday, 9:40 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ Arizona, Lauer vs. Davies (MLB TV)
- Friday, 10:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Los Angeles, Darvish vs. May (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- Friday, 10:15 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ San Francisco (Apple TV+)
- Saturday, 4:05 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ San Francisco, Syndergaard vs. Junis (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 6:10 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Tampa Bay, Schmidt vs. Kluber (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 6:35 PM EDT: Toronto @ Pittsburgh, TBD vs. Contreras (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 7:05 PM EDT: Oakland @ Baltimore, Oller vs. Voth (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 7:10 PM EDT: Washington @ New York (NL), Corbin vs. Scherzer (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 7:15 PM EDT: Cubs @ St. Louis, Smyly vs. Wainwright (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 7:15 PM EDT: Minnesota @ Chicago (AL), Mahle vs. Cease (FOX)
- Saturday, 7:15 PM EDT: Seattle @ Cleveland, Ray vs. Curry (FOX)
- Saturday, 7:20 PM EDT: Miami @ Atlanta, Cabrera vs. Odorizzi (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 8:10 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ Arizona, Burnes vs. Bumgarner (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 9:07 PM EDT: Houston @ Anaheim, Garcia vs. Ohtani (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 9:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Los Angeles, Manaea vs. Urías (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 12:05 PM EDT: Toronto @ Pittsburgh, Stripling vs. Brubaker (Peacock)
- Sunday, 1:35 PM EDT: Miami @ Atlanta, López vs. Fried (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- Sunday, 1:35 PM EDT: Oakland @ Baltimore, Martínez vs. Watkins (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 1:40 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Tampa Bay, Montas vs. TBD (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 1:40 PM EDT: Washington @ New York (NL), Fedde vs. Carrasco (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 2:10 PM EDT: Minnesota @ Chicago (AL), Bundy vs. Giolito (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 2:15 PM EDT: Cubs @ St. Louis, Stroman vs. Mikolas (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 2:40 PM EDT: Seattle @ Cleveland, Kirby vs. Quantrill (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 4:05 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ San Francisco, Suárez vs. Rodón (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 4:07 PM EDT: Houston @ Anaheim, Urquidy vs. Davidson (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 4:10 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ Arizona, Alexander vs. Gallen (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 7:00 PM EDT: San Diego @ Los Angeles, Clevinger vs. Heaney (MLB TV)
- Monday, 12:35 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Pittsburgh, Walker vs. Wilson (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- Monday, 1:05 PM EDT: Minnesota @ New York (AL), Archer vs. Taillon (MLB TV)
- Monday, 1:05 PM EDT: Toronto @ Baltimore – Game 1, Berríos vs. Lyles (MLB TV)
- Monday, 4:10 PM EDT: Boston @ Tampa Bay, Wacha vs. TBD (MLB TV)
- Monday, 4:10 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ Colorado, Peralta vs. Feltner (MLB TV)
- Monday, 4:15 PM EDT: Washington @ St. Louis, Sánchez vs. Hudson (MLB TV)
- Monday, 4:40 PM EDT: Toronto @ Baltimore – Game 2, TBD vs. TBD (MLB TV)
- Monday, 6:40 PM EDT: Arizona @ San Diego, Henry vs. Snell (MLB TV)
- Monday, 6:40 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Seattle, Lynn vs. Gonzales (MLB TV)
- Monday, 7:10 PM EDT: Texas @ Houston, Pérez vs. Valdez (MLB TV)
- Monday, 8:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Kansas City, McKenzie vs. Singer (MLB TV)
- Monday, 10:10 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Los Angeles, Webb vs. Anderson (MLB TV)
Motorsports (That We Cover)
- Sunday, 9:00 AM EDT: Formula 1 – Dutch Grand Prix (ESPN)
- Sunday, 3:00 PM EDT: IndyCar – Grand Prix of Portland (NBC)
- Sunday, 6:00 PM EDT: NASCAR Cup Series – Cook Out Southern 500 (USA)
Soccer (of Significance to Our Futures Portfolios)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EDT: Leeds @ Brentford (USA)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EDT: Crystal Palace @ Newcastle (Peacock)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EDT: West Ham @ Chelsea (Peacock)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EDT: Coventry @ Norwich
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EDT: Watford @ Rotherham
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EDT: Queens Park Rangers @ Swansea
- Sunday, 9:00 AM EDT: Leicester @ Brighton (USA)
- Sunday, 10:00 AM EDT: Sheffield United @ Hull
- Sunday, 11:30 AM EDT: Arsenal @ Manchester United (USA)
- Monday, 3:00 PM EDT: Sunderland @ Middlesbrough (ESPN+)
