In Nebraska’s defense, playing the only semi-noteworthy game of an entire weekend is a recipe for narrative doom in college sports. At the same time, though, they agreed to play during Week Zero. They agreed to do the Ireland thing. They did so thinking they would be good. They are not good. Nebraska is a bad football team.
Most bad football teams are bad in the same way: They give up a lot of yards, they don’t gain many yards, they lose by a lot of points. Nebraska’s different. They gain plenty of yards. They don’t give up that many. They keep good teams close. Nebraska is simply spookily adept at finding ways to lose winnable games.
On Saturday, a lot of the focus after the final whistle was on Scott Frost’s attempt to blow the game open by attempting an onside kick after going ahead by two scores for the second time. After the onside kick failed, Northwestern scored in five plays, pulling within a possession—a deficit they would ultimately erase. Nebraska did not score again. What was a 28-17 Husker lead before the onside turned into a 31-28 Wildcat victory.
I’m not sure the onside kick was really the problem. Nebraska, after all, turned the ball over three times, including twice inside the Northwestern red zone. They struggled to run the ball effectively, outgained on the ground by nearly one hundred percent. They allowed Northwestern to convert on 4th-and-1 late in the first half, a play which ultimately led Frost’s team to the locker room with a halftime deficit. The onside kick, on the heels of a five-play stretch which saw Nebraska score twice, handed Northwestern a significant 41 yards, but only 41 yards. But then again…
So much of what we’ve seen from Nebraska, last year and now last week, is an inability to shut the door, and at some point, one starts to wonder about psychology with that.
Even with an aggressive weighting of presently unmeasurable psychological effects, the onside kick was one of many turning points, and the reality stands that Nebraska was largely outplayed by their opponent, outgained per play and out-takeawayed. But when you’re on a losing streak, in football or in life, it gets in your head, and while Scott Frost was battling that even before Saturday, he’s really battling it now. How, if you’re Nebraska, do you stop Nebraska-ing? It’s unlikely they’ll figure it out when Oklahoma comes to town midway through September, but after that game they play one of the most advantageous Power Five conference stretches in the country, hosting Indiana, Illinois, and Minnesota while visiting Rutgers and Purdue. They’re going to have leads. They’re going to have chances.
Scott Frost won’t lose his job because of an onside kick. But he might lose his job because of the mental circumstances which led to the onside kick, and which made the onside kick look so decisive.
The Playoff Race Slows Down
After this weekend’s action, only four teams sit anywhere between 15% and 85% likely to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs. Here’s how we got there:
AL East
The Orioles remain pesky—they just won a series down in Houston—but a game and a half back of the Blue Jays for the final Wild Card spot and lacking the on-paper firepower with which their competitors are stocked, it’s still quite the longshot. Toronto got swept this weekend by Anaheim, Baltimore won two of three, and again: longshot. Too little, too late? In a way. Not so much because the Orioles haven’t done enough, but because they dug themselves such a hole that they would’ve had to do an even more outrageous amount than what they’ve done. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are getting closer and closer to FanGraphs elimination, even taking two of three from the Rays at Fenway. Four games under .500, those Red Sox.
The Rays and Jays were chasing the Yankees for a minute there, and they still are, but the Yankees are up comfortably over 90% likely to win the East again. The Yanks lost the final two in Oakland, so panic has resumed, but they’re probably fine to take the division, just as their chasers are probably fine to capture Wild Card spots.
AL Central
Things can change quickly, and the White Sox can play their way back into this, but things can change quickly, and the White Sox may have played their way out of this, losing all three this weekend to the visiting Diamondbacks. The year is not a terrible underperformance relative to the strength of the roster, but it’s a vast underperformance relative to expectations, while Minnesota (who showed some life sweeping the Giants) and Cleveland (who won on Saturday but lost the rest to Seattle) have overperformed the public perception. This is turning into a two-horse race, and with neither very Wild Card-likely, these are two of the four on the playoff bubble.
AL West
The Mariners are comfortably in the field. Could they fall out? Sure, but it isn’t very likely. Comparable to the Yankees losing the East, even with the smaller of those two leads by a big margin. Easy slate the rest of the way for Seattle.
NL East
Even this race isn’t much. The Mets are roughly five-in-six likely to capture the division, taking their first three against the Rockies before falling 1-0 yesterday, and Atlanta isn’t that hot, dropping their weekend set to the Cardinals (with last night’s game feeling, as they say, like a playoff atmosphere). Atlanta’s a lock to make the field, but it’s much more likely they’re a Wild Card.
Philadelphia, down below, has taken big strides towards locking up a Wild Card spot themselves. They took two of three from the Pirates this weekend and now lead San Diego by two and a half for the 5-seed, with Milwaukee a full four games away.
NL Central
More on Milwaukee in a sentence, but the Cardinals are still approaching Yankees territory. Neither this nor the AL East is where the Wests are (locked up about as hard as Fort Knox), but they’re reasonably close.
NL West
What does it take to beat the Dodgers? A complete game by a Cy Young contender, in at least one case. That’s how the Marlins got their lone win of the weekend over Los Angeles. Sandy Alcantara remains.
NL Wild Card
And, finally, the Brewers and Padres, the last two teams of any note (sorry, Giants, you’re still with the Red Sox). There are enough slivers of chances lying around where the Cardinals and/or Phillies miss the field that Milwaukee’s close to a coin flip of getting in, with San Diego around Cleveland territory, close to two-in-three. San Diego and Cleveland being in the same territory? Yes, that’s a surprise. Credit to the Guardians, credit to Sophocles for all the Fernando Tatís Jr. plot twists.
The Padres/Brewers race could turn into the stretch run’s best, as when each team is playing well, they’re rather tough to beat. The Brewers took two of three from the Cubs this weekend, pulling them up to an even .500 over their last eighteen (which looks a lot better when considering the six against the Cubs were the only against a non-playoff team in those eighteen games). The Padres took two of three from the Royals, pulling them up to an even .500 over their last eighteen (which looks a lot worse when considering the two against the Guardians were the only against a playoff team in those eighteen games). Each is failing to generate wins in bunches, making this less of a race and more of a contest in holding onto the edge of a cliff, but we’ll take what we can get, and there are still five and a half weeks left of ballgames to be played.
On the newsy side:
American League
Justin Verlander was pulled after three innings yesterday with what the team’s calling calf discomfort. It’s unclear whether that will become anything, but something to keep an eye on with the Houston ace. He’ll have an MRI today.
In a development certain to only soothe Yankees’ fans inflamed passions, Aroldis Chapman is on the IL with a leg infection suffered after receiving a new tattoo. Chapman’s not what he used to be, but as always, you prefer health.
In a development certain to only soothe White Sox’ fans inflamed passions, Yoán Moncada is on the IL with a hamstring strain. Believe this was an on-field injury, not one suffered at a tattoo parlor.
The Red Sox got Trevor Story back from injury as they prepare to make what amounts to a last stand, playing the Twins and Rangers this week before eight games against AL East foes.
National League
Tony Gonsolin is going on the IL with a forearm strain, and while I don’t think he’s really part of the Cy Young race, despite the win-loss record and the ERA (he tends to get pulled pretty early, so he doesn’t have many innings or quality starts), this is bad news for a Dodgers team already missing Walker Buehler for the rest of the season. Still…Julio Urías, Dustin May, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Clayton Kershaw (who should return just about any day now)…that’s pretty good.
Jack Flaherty should return in a week for St. Louis, and it sounds like he’s expected to start, not relieve. The Cardinals really changed that equation up by not only acquiring Jordan Montgomery and José Quintana, but getting good results from the pair so far. Should Steven Matz return, he’ll be a reliever.
The Mets got Eduardo Escobar back from injury. On the other side of the 40-man roster, though, Francisco Álvarez is having his ankle examined and might be shut down for the year. It didn’t sound like they’d be promoting him anyway, and the ankle injury doesn’t sound severe, but he’d been in the discussion.
The Phillies are getting Brandon Marsh back from the IL, which sends Bradley Zimmer back to Toronto, not through some strange trade agreement but instead by the whims of the waiver wire. What a year that guy’s having. In the life sense, not in terms of performance.
Corbin Carroll’s coming up from AAA for the Diamondbacks. Rated by some to be the best prospect in baseball, the 22-year-old center fielder should get a good month’s worth of MLB at-bats to try things out with low stakes for Arizona.
The Cubs
Ok, first, the baseball stuff: Tough weekend, except for the Ian Happ Game™ on Friday, but good to fight back yesterday and make it close there at the end. One of those weekends where the abundance of upside showed its downside. More on individuals some other time, but the Cubs remain competitive, and while the playoffs have been off the table for months, there’s still plenty of time to raise the reasonable level of expectations for next year.
Now, the non-baseball stuff: Justin Steele and Adrian Sampson won’t be with the team in Toronto this week. Neither’s vaccinated against Covid, and neither the U.S. nor Canada will let people cross the border without restrictions if they’re unvaccinated against Covid. One interesting thing with this: The Covid vaccination rate still is rising. It’s not rising particularly quickly, but it’s rising. People are changing their minds and deciding to get vaccinated. This appears to have happened on the Cubs, too, where concerns earlier in the year were that the number would be much larger than two when the time came to put guys on the restricted list. Found that interesting.
Back to baseball:
Steele left the game Friday with back tightness. No word on whether or not he’ll need an IL stint, but he’d next pitch this coming Friday against the Cardinals at the earliest. He did make it through 88 pitches, and he’s someone to treat with the utmost caution at this stage, so it’s unlikely it’s particularly serious, but that’s a thing that’ll make you knock on wood as you type it.
Patrick Wisdom is on the IL with that finger sprain that happened on the slide into home a week ago Saturday. Alfonso Rivas has been called back up.
Wade Miley’s still trying to get back to the mound, and Adbert Alzolay made another rehab start, but it’ll be Javier Assad making another start tonight, with Marcus Stroman tomorrow and Wednesday’s guy TBD. Alzolay’s last rehab outing was Saturday, so he’d be back Friday at the earliest.
Jeremiah Estrada and Brendon Little will be temporary replacements for Sampson and Steele. Each is on the older side within minor leaguedom, but we’ve seen plenty of guys of their nature work out so far for the Cubs this year.
Manuel Rodríguez is back from the IL, joining the MLB roster for the first time since spring training. The hope with Rodríguez had been that he could be a reliable back-of-the-bullpen guy, but that’s a lot easier to envision than it is to produce. Kervin Castro went down in the corresponding move.
NASCAR Didn’t Dodge Anything
Here’s an idea for NASCAR: Give six track officials a button that waves a caution flag. Put them on spotter stands around the speedway. Tell them to push a button if they feel raindrops.
Here’s what NASCAR does instead: ??????????????????????
Saturday night’s regular season finale, which turned into Sunday morning’s regular season finale, was a bit of a farce. NASCAR, hoping to avoid having to make a semi-arbitrary decision on when to red flag the race due to rain (something that many expected to result in the race ending prematurely, and nearly did end the race prematurely), let the race run under a green flag for too long, sending cars driving 200 miles per hour on tires built explicitly for dry pavement into a rain shower on a banked turn which predictably led nearly every one of them to crash. It was one of the stupidest, most reckless, most avoidable bad decisions made by the governing body of a sport in recent memory, and that’s an impressive list atop which to stand. Thankfully for NASCAR, the race was eventually able to resume and run in full, but focusing on that with the ‘NASCAR dodged a bullet’ narrative discounts how many drivers saw their playoff hopes (and in some cases, potentially their Cup Series careers) end because NASCAR doesn’t have even a low-tech approach to handling weather objectively.
We talked recently about NASCAR and Formula 1 (and presumably IndyCar) lacking objective rules, and thereby leaving themselves open to arbitrary choices deciding things as significant as their sport’s “championships.” It’s not the worst idea if you can keep fans entertained enough to not turn away—the WWE also has a lot of subjective officiating—but if you want to be taken seriously, you need rules.
Austin Dillon ultimately won the race, and he did deserve to, somehow managing not to crash when nearly every other driver in the lead pack was washed into carnage. Ryan Blaney deservedly took the final playoff spot on points, with both his and Martin Truex Jr.’s damage thankfully coming on non-rain-caused wrecks (though Blaney did pass a lot of rain-wrecked cars on the leaderboard to get those points). But still.
On the F1 side, we’d read it was easy to pass at Spa-Francorchamps but we didn’t anticipate Max Verstappen having as little trouble doing it as he did. We should’ve listened to the betting market on that one, I guess.
**
Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
- 7:07 PM EDT: Cubs @ Toronto, Assad vs. Berríos (MLB TV)
- 6:40 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ Miami, Grove vs. López (MLB TV)
- 6:40 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Cincinnati, Mikolas vs. Anderson (MLB TV)
- 7:40 PM EDT: Boston @ Minnesota, Bello vs. Bundy (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee, TBA vs. Burnes (MLB TV)
- 9:38 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Anaheim, Montas vs. Suarez (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ Arizona, Suárez vs. Bumgarner
- 9:45 PM EDT: San Diego @ San Francisco, Clevinger vs. Rodón (MLB TV/ESPN+)
