Texas Tech has never gone undefeated. Texas Tech has only won more than nine games a handful of times. Texas Tech has never won a national championship, it hasn’t won a conference championship outright since 1955, and its last shared conference championship came in the 1994 Southwest Conference, where Texas A&M finished with the best record but was under NCAA sanctions, leaving Tech in a five-way tie at 4-3 for what was still called the “title.” The Bowl Coalition, the first organization in the process that would lead to our current College Football Playoff, started operation in 1992. Over the 31 seasons since, Texas Tech’s most noteworthy bowl appearance—measured at the time it was played—was a trip to the Cotton Bowl after that ’94 conference crown which ended with USC beating the Red Raiders 55-14, leaving them 6-6 overall. Texas Tech isn’t a bad football program—it has a winning record all-time—but it’s never gotten over the hump and become a national brand.
On Sunday, one of Texas Tech’s own will try to become one of just thirteen quarterbacks in NFL history to win multiple Super Bowls.
You can tell the story of Texas Tech football without bringing up Patrick Mahomes. He was a memorable quarterback, and a good one, but his teams were mediocre. Kliff Kingsbury did not voluntarily leave Texas Tech. Texas Tech cut him loose.
Still, it’s worth the question: What happens to a program when an alum becomes the best player in the NFL?
There’s no good modern comparison for Mahomes and Texas Tech in this situation. Ben Roethlisberger won multiple Super Bowls, but he was never attributed the portion of responsibility for his team’s performance Mahomes enjoys, and Miami of Ohio is in a different category than Texas Tech. The most similar situation is probably that of Aaron Rodgers and Cal, though Mahomes already has Rodgers beat in Super Bowl appearances. In that case, Rodgers’s ascent didn’t do a whole lot for the Golden Bears. But then, again, we’re stuck comparing apples to oranges, because Cal at least used to be a big deal nationally, way back when, and because Texas Tech and Cal are now such differently identitied schools.
We don’t know, then, what Mahomes elevating himself to all-time great (rather than just present-day great) would do for his old team. It could be a bit of trivia and nothing more. It could be a dash of fuel that starts something big in Lubbock. Here’s our best guess, between those two poles:
Patrick Mahomes will only be meaningful for Texas Tech, in hindsight, if Tech can get more quarterbacks into the league. Start with Mahomes and add a few more stars, and you have a claim as QB U. Even that, though, runs somewhat separate from what it means to build a great program. Good quarterbacks are only part of the puzzle, and arguably harder to develop than a team that’s consistently competitive within this new Big 12. In other words? Don’t hold your breath. Mahomes can help Texas Tech. But he isn’t going to save it.
The Big Game
I can’t remember a time when both Super Bowl opponents were as likable as these. The 2019-20 Niners weren’t unlikable, but they were nothing special. The Patriots appeared in a lot of these things, and they weren’t exactly Tom Hanks. Maybe that Saints–Colts one? Drew Brees and Peyton Manning? Neither has quite the same personal magic right now they had at the time, but that might have been the one.
Part of what’s so fun about this is that it isn’t just about the quarterbacks. They’re both admirable players and—from what we know—good role models, but these are great teams, and not in a cobbled together, mortgaged–the–future way like last year’s Rams. The Eagles’ play in the trenches is fierce. The number of times I’ve heard someone talk about Kansas City’s defensive linemen “pinning their ears back” is in the dozens. Andy Reid is a treasure, of course, and Nick Sirianni might be becoming something. Combine this all with two rabid fanbases and it’s a championship deserving of its title.
If we’re predicting—and I guess I get to decide that, so we’re predicting—the Eagles remain more of an unknown than Kansas City. It’s possible the NFC was great this season, and that we all just missed it, but it seemed like there were four teams a big cut above everybody else, and three of those played in the American Football Conference. The Eagles played none of them in the regular season. They might be sensational. They’ve looked sensational so far this postseason. But the first of their wins came over the New York Giants, a team coming off a four-win season and playing the schedule one gets when one wins four games, and a team which played most of the NFC Championship without a single functional quarterback. There’s so much volatility with where this Eagles team’s true ability could land. That’s probably why odds swirled so sharply and swiftly once odds were posted. The numbers say Kansas City’s a little better. A lot of people think the numbers are wrong. It’s a twist on last summer’s NBA Finals—one great team and team alone against one great team comprised of a number of stars and a number of role players. The two are hard to compare.
I said the predict word, so here’s my best guess: The Eagles defense gives Kansas City a lot of trouble. The Eagles offense struggles to click. It’s a lower-scoring game than we anticipate, but Kansas City gets it done. 17-13 final.
Mahomes’s Contract Is a Stroke of Genius
It’s risky to sign a guy to a ten-year extension, but with salaries skyrocketing like they are, Kansas City is slowly getting Patrick Mahomes on the cheap. Pro Football Rumors listed today that Mahomes could be the ninth-highest paid quarterback in the league next year, and paid less than even his opponent on Sunday, Jalen Hurts. Conventional wisdom says you need a good quarterback to win the Super Bowl, and there’s a school of thought which dovetails from that and says you need that quarterback to be affordable. Signing a wildly long deal is, again, a risk, but it’s one way to make that happen. Salaries always go up.
Only One 14-Team Year
The Big 12 will, after all of that, go back to being a 12-team league in the 2024-25 academic year. It was announced last night that Texas and Oklahoma will play in the Big 12 for just one more season rather than the potential two, and will then leave for the SEC.
It’s not all that big a surprise. It was the initial expectation. But, now we know. One more year with this alignment. The same cadence as the Big Ten with USC and UCLA.
More Hilton Magic?
Iowa State is the only school in the Big 12 still undefeated at home this season. The last time the Cyclones lost in Ames was more than eleven months ago, against…Oklahoma State.
It’s a tough, tough game. Oklahoma State’s a good team playing its best basketball. They’re aggressive defensively, which is something Iowa State’s struggled with in each of its recent losses. At the other end, though, they’re a little bit of a mess, which is why it’s easy to like the Cyclones to take care of business. At the end of the day, ISU’s the better team. Win, and they keep their head in the conference title pursuit.
Virginia vs. Duke, Five More
Six games are standing out right now, looking at the college basketball slate this weekend:
Duke goes to Charlottesville, looking for a win that would turn this season around. It’s eminently possible. Virginia’s the best the ACC has, but they aren’t as much as any other power league has got. UVA needs to hold serve here.
Do other leagues have better? Yes. UConn and Creighton are playing what should be a preview of the Big East Tournament 4/5 game, and each is in KenPom’s top ten. It’s UConn’s first chance to win on the road after finally appearing to figure some things out this week against Marquette. Creighton, though, has been a machine of late, and hasn’t lost at home since the dregs of their year back in December.
Purdue plays Northwestern in Evanston on Sunday, and Northwestern’s been collecting a lot of scalps. The Wildcats are 5-2 since their Covid break, and they just swept a Madison/Columbus road trip, picking up a pair of statement wins in bubbletopia. It doesn’t get easier from here for them, but they should make it hard on Purdue.
UCLA faces a similar style of danger up in Eugene, where Oregon handled USC last night. The Ducks have been putting it together in conference play, and UCLA still somehow has just one win over a definite NCAA Tournament team (Maryland, in December). This wouldn’t be that—Oregon’s aimed at the top of the NIT right now—but it’d help the Bruins keep keeping on until the next big chance comes in three weeks.
And lastly, the Big 12 clashes of note are happening in Fort Worth and Austin, where Baylor visits TCU and West Virginia goes to Texas. TCU is banged up and hobbled and it’s unclear who they’ll get out there on the court, but they also have one of the best remaining schedules in the league. Win their home games and they’ll stay in the mix. West Virginia? They’re trying to keep the good times rolling. They’ve won four of five, now, including one in Lubbock they really needed at the time. This isn’t going to get them back in the conference race, but it could pull Texas down into the mire, making everybody on I-35 a Mountaineer fan for an afternoon.
Fulmer to the Cubs
The ZiPS National League projections are out, and they’re surprisingly high on the Cubs. Despite the team clearly still sitting committed to a long, thorough rebuild, the roster is up to a 78-win ballclub, according to Dan Szymborski’s computer (which is often very, very accurate). They even have a bit better than a one-in-six chance to make the playoffs, despite all of St. Louis, Atlanta, New York, Philadelphia, San Diego, and Los Angeles clearly planning on winning now rather than later. ZiPS has the Cubs finishing behind those six plus the Giants, Brewers, and Diamondbacks, but one-in-six is a lot better than I’d have guessed.
Helping those odds ever so slightly will be the addition of Michael Fulmer, the former Tigers up-and-comer who’s transitioned into a strong bullpen arm. He shouldn’t be expected to be an all-star or anything, but he could well be worth half a win in performance alone, and depending on his leverage, that could translate to a bigger impact. (Also, he’ll be a nice little trade chip when the Cubs sell again in July.)
Models, Futures, Etc.
I feel the need every few weeks in these to check in for our regular readers and give updates on some of the shit that’s fallen by the wayside. As was mentioned elsewhere on the site today, we’re trying to get some imitation of our desired full bracketology model up a week from Monday, with a “bridge” mode this coming week to get us from “lite” to whatever we call the year’s final version.
After that, we’d like to get on board with college baseball and softball if we can manage it—the softball season started yesterday—but the NIT is the priority, and the rest of college basketball comes after that. We’ll fire Gelo back up in time for the NHL playoffs, and hopefully beforehand. Nothing else is imminent. If we find space, it’s college baseball and softball after basketball ends, but I would not bet on us finding time.
What I would bet on, and will bet on, is more futures soon. We’ll take a look at our Super Bowl situation with the bets before Sunday and decide whether or not to hedge, but beyond that, we have all those soccer plays still outstanding, and our aim with this year’s final bracketology version is that it’ll have probabilities we can use to build a portfolio. So, if you like that piece of the blog, stay tuned for all of that. We’ll keep doing our best over here. Thanks for bearing with us.
**
The weekend’s happenings:
College Basketball (the good ones)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: West Virginia @ Texas (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: UConn @ Creighton (FOX)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EST: Duke @ Virginia (ESPN)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EST: Baylor @ TCU (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 6:00 PM EST: Oklahoma State @ Iowa State (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 10:00 PM EST: UCLA @ Oregon (ESPN)
- Sunday, 2:00 PM EST: Purdue @ Northwestern (BTN)
College Basketball (others of national interest or opportune timing)
- Friday, 7:00 PM EST: Xavier @ Butler (FS1)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Marquette @ Georgetown (FS1)
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EST: Kansas @ Oklahoma (CBS)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: Alabama @ Auburn (ESPN)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: Rutgers @ Illinois (FS1)
- Saturday, 6:00 PM EST: Saint Mary’s @ Portland (CBSSN)
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EST: Arizona @ Stanford (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 10:00 PM EST: BYU @ Gonzaga (ESPN2)
Super Bowl
- Sunday, 6:30 PM EST: Kansas City vs. Philadelphia (FOX)
NBA (best game each day, plus the Bulls)
- Friday, 10:00 PM EST: Cleveland @ New Orleans (ESPN)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: Bulls @ Cleveland (League Pass)
- Saturday, 8:30 PM EST: LA Lakers @ Golden State (ABC)
- Sunday, 2:00 PM EST: Memphis @ Boston (ABC)
NHL (best game each day)
- Friday, 7:00 PM EST: Seattle @ NY Rangers (NHLN)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: NY Rangers @ Carolina (NHLN)
- Sunday, 12:30 PM EST: Edmonton @ Montreal (ESPN+)
Premier League (best game each day/open timeslot)
- Saturday, 7:30 AM EST: Chelsea @ West Ham (USA)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Brentford @ Arsenal (Peacock)
- Sunday, 9:00 AM EST: Manchester United @ Leeds (USA)
- Sunday, 11:30 AM EST: Aston Villa @ Manchester City (USA)
EFL Championship (best game each day/open timeslot)
- Friday, 3:00 PM EST: West Brom @ Birmingham (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Swansea City @ Sheffield United
