We’ll start with the headliners, move to Iowa State.
Last Night’s Review: Kentucky and Duke, Villanova and…Houston?
Kentucky, as we knew was possible, got beat up in Knoxville, losing the ball and failing to finish inside far too often to compete with the Vols. Nice win for the home team, reminding us what they can do. Tough loss for the visitors, especially in the SEC regular season race, but it doesn’t change our perception of them much. Kentucky is still a Contender.
Duke had a bit of a bad night too, letting Wake Forest back into things at the end and needing a Mark Williams tip-slam to avoid overtime. Not too concerning, but with Villanova shooting Providence’s pants off (it was a bad night for the Wildcats defensively, that isn’t getting attention, just saying) both Houston and Nova passed the Blue Devils in KenPom, which we use as a gut check for our categories. Baylor, Auburn, and Kansas are all national championship Possibilities, but including Duke in that tier requires either including Houston and Villanova or tossing KenPom aside. We’ll include all of them, partially because Kansas’s defense is suspect enough that if we’re going to include them…
Tennessee would be where we draw the line right now. If Tennessee slips past Duke, we’re taking Duke out. And yes, these categories are immensely arbitrary. They’re mostly useful for us to know where to direct our focus nationally since the AP Poll in college basketball is as useless as a shopping cart at a lumber yard.
Tonight
Baylor goes to Lubbock tonight, where things have been quieter the last few weeks from Mark Adams & Co. Since beating Texas in Chris Beard’s return, the Red Raiders are 2-1 with a win at West Virginia, a loss at Oklahoma, and a home win against TCU. Some have them favored to complete the sweep of Baylor tonight. With Baylor shorthanded, count me among them. If it happens, Kansas will be up two in the loss column in the Big 12 race. 9:00 PM EST, ESPN2.
Nothing else compares to that one, but among Possibilities, Auburn hosts Vanderbilt (9:00 PM EST, SECN), and among Contenders, Gonzaga goes to Pepperdine (11:00 PM EST, ESPN2). Purdue @ Northwestern (9:00 PM EST, BTN), Illinois @ Rutgers (7:00 PM EST, BTN), Seton Hall @ UConn (8:30 PM EST, CBSSN), and Mississippi State @ Alabama (7:00 PM EST, ESPN2) also have my eye. Big opportunities for the Wildcats, Scarlet Knights, Pirates, and Cowbell-Ringers, and all in rather no-lose settings, either by being on the road or being home against a better-enough team that any loss will likely be excused.
Iowa State, Bubble Team No More?
Iowa State is not a tournament lock. They won’t be for a bit, I wouldn’t think. Possibly not until Selection Sunday But winning at TCU puts them one behind the top mark in the country in Quadrant I wins, and that matters, especially when you don’t have any bad losses. 8-7 against Q1, 0-2 against Q2, 9-0 against Q3/Q4 (heavy Q4 lean there). The nonconference strength of schedule could bite, but just as you can say, “the committee would never put a team that finishes last in its conference in the field,” I can say, “the committee would never exclude a team with eight Q1 wins (and counting).”
Also, the Cyclones probably won’t finish last in the Big 12. They’re currently on track to finish 9th, get the 8-seed with Oklahoma State banned, win the opener against West Virginia, and then lose to Kansas. Where would that leave them? I’d guess on the 9-line, likely as an underdog. What an accomplishment that would be for this season.
As for the game itself:
TCU did a good job protecting the ball, just like Kansas State did, and they tore Iowa State apart on the offensive glass, as is their wont. Iowa State’s offense was largely lifeless, though Izaiah Brockington hit some big shots, Gabe Kalscheur hit a big shot and had an overall better night, George Conditt was a master distributor again, and Tyrese Hunter picked up a few easy baskets. It was the Cyclones’ slowest game of the year, finishing across only 59 possessions, and it was TCU’s slowest as well. All in all, not a great showing from the men in red, but a big, big win despite that. Hopefully they can make it two in a row on Saturday against an Oklahoma team much more on the bubble than the guys in Ames.
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Tonight, I’ll probably start with that Illinois/Rutgers game and then go to Baylor/Texas Tech. Fairly straightforward evening. Rutgers’s NIT bubble situation continues to fascinate, with many choosing to ignore November altogether when discussing them and others, like our computer, holding November above Steve Pikiell’s head like an anchor, ready to drop. As someone who (privately, not in the best bets) wagered on Rutgers to beat Minnesota in January on that day in Minneapolis when the Gophers only had something like four rotation players available, only to see Pikiell roll out the worst gameplan possible for facing an opponent that shorthanded, I hold no sympathy for these guys if they lose their next seven. But my sympathy or lack thereof won’t affect how our model treats them.
