We were going to lead with baseball, starting writing these notes as the Patriot Day game was beginning over in Boston, but then the Tyrese Hunter news came out and, well, here comes basketball.
What Happened with Tyrese Hunter?
Tyrese Hunter entered the transfer portal today, and it’s sad for Iowa State, but it’s hopefully great for Hunter. Rumors arose over the weekend that Hunter was being poached by UNC via NIL money, and if that’s the case, good for him. The kid lost both his parents. The kid was raised by his brother. The kid brought Iowa State so much in his one year there, and while he received a lot from Iowa State as well, if there was something he could get elsewhere, it’s his right to go get it. Iowa State fans should wish him the absolute best wherever he goes. He was awesome, and he’ll be awesome.
That all said, if he goes to a program that isn’t clearly a great NIL or basketball destination, it’s going to be frustrating, and the frustration won’t be with him. It’ll be with Iowa State. If Hunter ends up at a program that isn’t clearly a better spot than Ames for a guy like him, it’ll be a sign that Iowa State needs to step it up in their talent retention.
Where Will Tyrese Hunter Go?
Hunter is now the fifth-ranked transfer in the portal, per EvanMiya, and of the four ahead of him only one—Norchad Omier, a forward departing Arkansas State—has the same amount of eligibility remaining. With players at this level, eligibility isn’t of the highest relevance, since the NBA is the focus, but eligibility is important, and while these guys all want to go pro, not all of them will successfully.
It’s possible there was some transfer portal activity over the weekend that I’m missing, but the other headline-raiser was Emoni Bates’s long-expected entry into limbo. Bates was a flop at Memphis, and while the line is that the talent is there, it’s always possible the talent isn’t there. For some context, Bates is ranked comparably to Xavier Pinson and Johni Broome by Miyakawa’s formula. Good. Not excellent.
Taking this back to Iowa State again: The Cyclones now desperately need a point guard. They did get a commitment from Hason Ward over the weekend, which helps the frontcourt, but a point guard is needed and ideally another big man to compliment Ward, since Robert Jones and Tre King aren’t exactly who you want starting games down low. It’s hard to overstate how big a loss Hunter is for the Cyclones. That man was likely worth two or three spots in the Big 12 standings alone. Hopefully Iowa State’s been working the phones just in case, or can make a big late push for someone like Terry Roberts, who’s leaving Bradley. Jeremiah Williams could work out, but that’s an aggressive bet, and one T.J. Otzelberger would probably rather not have to make.
Justin Verlander, Nolan Arenado, and Other Names from Recent History
It was a big series so far for Alex Verdugo in Boston, with the Red Sox left fielder hitting his second and third home runs of the year on Friday and Saturday and doubling earlier today. Barring a meltdown as this goes to publication, the Twins salvaged a series split from the trip. They’ll go to Kansas City next while the Red Sox welcome the Blue Jays to town.
Zack Williams had a big weekend up in Canada, going four-for-twelve for the Blue Jays while homering once and doubling twice. The former White Sox first round pick was dealt to Toronto just two weeks ago, and while the questions about his defense aren’t going anywhere, this is the power he’s always been seen to have. The Jays took two of three from the A’s, who head home to host the Orioles today.
For the Orioles, it was a successful series against the visiting Yankees. Two wins, one loss, with yesterday’s finale decided by a five-run eighth inning after Nestor Cortes struck out twelve in five innings for New York, walking just one in the process. The Yankees are off today, starting a series with the Tigers in Detroit tomorrow.
The Tigers were rained out yesterday, but won the series in Kansas City, led by Tarik Skubal striking out seven on Friday over five and two thirds. Skubal was FanGraphs’s 22nd-ranked prospect entering last season. As the Tigers try to get ahead of schedule, he’s a guy to watch.
Justin Verlander was dominant on Saturday, striking out eight and walking none over eight scoreless in Seattle. It was a good thing he was, too, as the Astros lost the other two in the set. Early in the season, four are within a game atop the AL West, with the Mariners welcoming the hapless Rangers beginning tomorrow and the Angels heading to Houston tonight.
Joe Maddon was the story for the Angels over the weekend, intentionally walking Corey Seager with the bases loaded early in Friday night’s game. The decision didn’t really work—two more runs came in to score—but the Angels came back to win, led by Shohei Ohtani’s two home runs. He hit his third of the year on Saturday after a rough start on the mound Thursday night. The Angels took the series, three games to one.
It’s early, but Nolan Arenado is already up to one whole fWAR, tied with José Ramírez for the MLB lead. The Cardinals third baseman was busy in Milwaukee, homering and doubling twice over the four-game set to leave his on-base percentage over .500 his hitless game count at zero. The Cardinals split the series and now head to Miami tomorrow. The Brewers are home early this week against Pittsburgh.
This was a big weekend for Jesus, and also for Jesús Sánchez, a fringe prospect for the Marlins who hit two triples and a double in a four-game series against the Phillies, one which Miami won three games to one. In what should be a competitive NL East, only the Mets currently have a winning record. The Phillies head out to Denver beginning tonight.
For the Rockies, it was a fine weekend at home, one in which they split four games with the visiting Cubs. Jonathan Villar led the way for the guests, recording eight hits in just fourteen at-bats. The Cubs start three games at home tonight against the Rays. More on that below.
Tampa Bay spent time in Chicago’s southern half, dropping two of three to the White Sox after Dylan Cease shut them down Friday night, striking out eight and walking two over two-plus trips through the order. The White Sox now visit the Guardians.
We mentioned José Ramírez’s hot start, but it was all Giants in Cleveland over the weekend. Three straight wins for the defending NL West champions, with old Cleveland division-mate Carlos Rodón going seven strong on Friday. Through two starts, Rodón has struck out 21 and walked only four in twelve innings of work. The Giants visit the Mets for four games this week.
The Mets have weathered Jacob deGrom’s injury well so far, and part of that’s been the strength of Francisco Lindor’s start. Lindor clubbed two home runs on Friday against the Diamondbacks, kicking off a series the Mets would win two games to one. Arizona’s down in the nation’s capital tonight, and will be there through Thursday.
The Nationals had a rough go of it in Pittsburgh over the weekend, but Juan Soto homered and doubled on Saturday, had two more hits on Friday, and remains just 23 years old. Nice to have a generational talent to get you through the bad years.
Yu Darvish had a great start last night, but it was Manny Machado who led the Padres through the weekend, striking five hits (including a home run) in Thursday’s rout. Atlanta came back to win Friday and Saturday, making the series a split, but the Padres, who’ve had one of the harder opening schedules in the league, are above .500 as they relievedly welcome Cincinnati to town. Atlanta, meanwhile, heads down to Los Angeles to continue their own little gauntlet.
Finally, Trea Turner keyed a four-game sweep of the Reds, homering, tripling, and recording seven hits over the series. His hitting streak finally ended yesterday, but his wRC+ moved up across the average mark.
The Student Athletes
In the college game, TCU’s sweep of Texas Tech was the headliner. Huge series for the Horned Frogs, who move off the edge of the bubble picture and onto the edge of the regional host picture. They weren’t alone in pulling off an impressive undefeated weekend: Arkansas notched a home sweep of LSU, Florida State grabbed a big home sweep of Louisville, and Duke turned heads with their own home sweep of a suddenly-reeling Notre Dame.
Tennessee lost again on Friday against Alabama, dropping their first SEC game, but they rallied back to win the next two comfortably and remain, with little dispute, the best team in the country. Virginia Tech got a big series win over Miami in Blacksburg. Oklahoma State took care of business in Morgantown, winning two of three up there. Stanford grabbed two of three on the road against UCLA, making a little statement, and Virginia had another rough weekend, dropping two of three at Pitt.
We’re looking into a college baseball bracketology model, as we’ve talked about before. It may or may not happen, but one thing that would help would be an official NCAA document detailing what criteria are considered by the selection committee. If you know of such a document or have a copy and wouldn’t mind sending it our way, we’d be grateful. The same goes for softball and both men’s and women’s lacrosse.
Cubs Competent in Colorado
Not the best weekend from the Cubs, but hard to complain about a series split, especially after reaching all the way down to Mark Leiter Jr. on the starting pitching depth chart on Saturday, with Wade Miley, Alec Mills, and Adbert Alzolay sidelined. Jonathan Villar had a big weekend and Patrick Wisdom broke out of his funk, hitting five doubles.
Is this something to believe in with Wisdom? It can be. Wisdom’s strength lies in his power. He’s not a great contact hitter, and he’s always likely to be a high-strikeout guy even if things do go well. Overall, though, a good hope for him is to be average overall, which is where his xwOBA ended up last year. With the combination of some contact quality-based regression, some positive development as he hits the normal peak age of hitters, and pitchers figuring him out more than they did in his breakout early last summer, it’s hard to see him putting up another 115 wRC+ or 2.3 fWAR, but if he can be average, that’s measurably better than replacement-level.
The question for the Cubs is what to do if Wisdom and Villar are both solid. One option is to put Villar in some platoon with Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal up the middle, but Madrigal’s probably the second-most important figure in this rebuild, behind Seiya Suzuki, and Hoerner’s ceiling remains higher than Wisdom’s, with much more value than Villar thanks to his arbitration status. You could put one of Wisdom and Villar at first, but Frank Schwindel’s a bit better than both on paper, and you could DH one, but the hope is to get Willson Contreras a lot of at-bats there, with Yan Gomes so strong for a second-stringer. The answer, of course, probably isn’t necessary to find. The probability of Wisdom and Villar both hitting and the Cubs staying healthy across the board is low. But if it does all happen, it’s yet another angle of pressure to get Jason Heyward out of the lineup, with Wisdom capable of playing some outfield. Heyward’s had a good start to the year—139 wRC+, .311 xwOBA (which is something like a 95 xwRC+, give or take)—but at this point in his career and in his contract, his greatest value is as a leader, and what the Cubs need to do (and are doing, I’d argue) is figure (figuring) out how to harness that while minimizing his plate appearances. For now, it’s fine to approach this how they’re approaching it, and again, injuries happen, but if the Cubs get into division contention, there’s an obvious move that at some point, they’re going to have to make.
To make room for Leiter this weekend, the Cubs had to DFA somebody, and they opted to save a little time and put two guys into the process. Cory Abbott, the 2017 second-round pick, and Greg Deichmann, part of the Andrew Chafin return last summer, are both in limbo. Neither would be a huge loss—each was turning into a fairly low-upside prospect—and as such, both might stay in the organization, but Abbott had always been a potential spot starter, and he is no longer that, at least for the time being. In addition to Leiter joining the 40-man, Locke St. John was added. St. John is 29 years old and had a cup of coffee for the Rangers in 2019. He’s bounced around the Tigers, Rangers, and now Cubs organizations. He’s a lefty, and with his addition to the 40-man one would assume the Cubs now have him at the ready should they need another arm. Interestingly, Leiter was not optioned back to AAA after his start, which implies he may get the start on Thursday against the Pirates, which would be his next turn through the rotation. Keegan Thompson will be back by then, but maybe the Cubs really want him in a multi-inning relief role. I wouldn’t blame them, given how well he’s done so far. Alfonso Rivas was optioned to AAA and Thompson served his suspension over the weekend. I don’t believe anybody filled Thompson’s spot on the 26-man, and maybe I misunderstood what happens with suspended players? Or maybe the Cubs didn’t want to add someone only to drop them later. I guess, as I type this, that maybe St. John was added to be ready on Sunday if the Cubs were really in a bullpen pickle, and then the pickle never materialized? We will likely never know, as this is of minor importance and I just found out Tyrese Hunter is in the transfer portal and I should really get to blogging about that.
The Cubs start a three-game set back at Wrigley tonight against the Rays, and it’s going to be cold. Temperatures around forty degrees at best tonight and tomorrow, and while Wednesday might be a bit warmer, it will still be cold and it will also possibly be wet. All parties will want all games completed in this series, since the Rays already made their trip to play the White Sox this year and would rather not make another trip to Chicago, and the Cubs would like 81 games’ worth of ticket revenue and this game is one that might not get rescheduled if postponed. Could Wednesday’s be moved up earlier in the day? I really don’t know.
Kyle Hendricks starts tonight, with Justin Steele up tomorrow and Marcus Stroman on the hill on Wednesday. The Rays are a strong offensive team, and attention tonight should be on how Hendricks is able to grip the ball as his command struggles continue. The power of small samples is telling when I look at the series and feel excited about Steele facing a to-be-determined starter tomorrow, but wary about Hendricks going against Shane McClanahan and Stroman going against Drew Rasmussen. It’s hard to keep the Rays straight, but Rasmussen and McClanahan have each averaged four and a half innings per start over two respective outings so far this year, so those are not openers, and each had a FIP under 3.40 last season.
Out of the Cubs bullpen, I’d be surprised if we see Rowan Wick tonight, as he pitched both Saturday and yesterday. Michael Rucker threw 25 pitches and had to sit down and wait for the Cubs to bat once yesterday, so he’s likely low on the go-to list. Mychal Givens had a dicey outing and threw 24 pitches, and Scott Effross had to do the up-and-down thing across the fifth and sixth innings (but didn’t throw many pitches), so basically, David Ross is probably hoping for a lot of innings from Hendricks today. Look for Chris Martin and Daniel Norris to carry the bulk of the work in relief.
Catching Up on the NHL
We never did release our NHL model this winter, though we did update it to account for the offseason and we also added offensive and defensive ratings, allowing us to project over/unders. With the playoffs coming up in a few weeks, we’ll probably roll that out soon, and as such it’s worth checking in on who’s had the best season. If you, like us, are just catching up, the Avalanche and Panthers are at the top of the standings, the Leafs/Hurricanes/Rangers/Blues/Flames/Wild/Lightning/Bruins/Penguins/Capitals have clinched playoff berths, the Eastern Conference is somehow already locked up bubble-wise (not seed-wise, but still) despite teams having between four and seven games to play, and the Oilers/Kings/Stars/Predators/Golden Knights/Canucks are playing for four spots in the West, with the Jets not technically eliminated yet but unlikely to get in there (and the Oilers, Stars, and Predators all rather likely to lock up spots).
So, that’s where things stand, speaking broadly. Our current plan is to time the model release to coincide with the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs, but we’ll see what ends up making sense within our content more broadly.
The Bets
No dice on the NASCAR dirt bets over the weekend, but with the series heading to Talladega, we’ll probably have some moonshots out there. Would be fun if one connected. F1’s back as well this weekend, in Italy, and it’s still early there so we don’t really know how our approach is going. IndyCar is off again this weekend.
On the baseball side, the futures portfolio is coming together nicely. We’re in on 14 teams now, with the Dodgers our only serious hole. We have holes on the division side and holes on the postseason side within those 14, but the fact there’s been at least some value on all 14 of them is a sign we should be able to plug most of them, and the division side and postseason side aren’t fully independent. In short, the profit probability and the worst-case are both pretty good, and our best-case is almost always great until the pennants are won, so consider us a happy bunch.
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Games of interest tonight, to us and others:
- Giants @ Mets (7:10 PM EDT, Regional TV) – Cobb vs. Megill
- Raptors @ 76ers (7:30 PM EDT, TNT)
- Rays @ Cubs (7:40 PM EDT, Regional TV) – McClanahan vs. Hendricks
- Angels @ Astros (8:10 PM EDT, Regional TV) – Lorenzen vs. Garcia
- Jazz @ Mavericks (8:30 PM EDT, NBA TV)
- Nuggets @ Warriors (10:00 PM EDT, TNT)
- Atlanta @ Dodgers (10:10 PM EDT, Regional TV) – Ynoa vs. Kershaw
Will have the Cubs on, as usual. Probably bouncing between the rest.
