We cannot not start with Iowa State.
Tyrese Hunter!
A storybook night for the Cyclones, and specifically for their freshman point guard, back in his home city, playing the game—so far—of his young career. Hunter plunged the dagger into LSU multiple times, and, well, what a moment, all around.
Iowa State’s defense was effective, forcing turnovers on thirty percent (!!) of LSU possessions while Tari Eason was limited to nineteen minutes by LSU’s coaching staff’s reticence to play him through foul trouble. Getting him in foul trouble, of course, was a great thing for Iowa State to do, but a lot of his absence comes back to how LSU approached it, and perhaps how they felt they had to approach it—Eason didn’t exactly avoid accumulating fouls when he was on the court.
Iowa State’s offense’s greatest asset was its own ball protection. The Cyclones didn’t shoot efficiently. They didn’t move the ball well. They didn’t even get to double digits in offensive rebounds. But they maximized the number of possessions ending in shots, and enough of those—specifically from Hunter—went in that they’re moving on.
One thing that jumped out early was the desperation from T.J. Otzelberger after the blowout loss to Texas Tech last week. Otzelberger put Robert Jones in the starting lineup, limited George Conditt to ten minutes (opting for a lot of small-ball, which worked much better than I would have thought against LSU), and gave Tre Jackson the littlest bit of run. Jaden Walker, who we thought might be a defensive x-factor, didn’t see the floor. It’s not a good thing to still be trying to figure out your rotations in your final games of the season, but it’s a good thing that Otzelberger’s willing to try, instead of getting into unproductive ruts, and it does speak to what this team is, which is Izaiah Brockington, Tyrese Hunter, and assorted inconsistent contributions from a bevy of role players. I was thinking yesterday afternoon about how I’d describe Iowa State to my Wisconsin friends, should that matchup materialize, and I thought the best way to describe it would be as two separate entities operating simultaneously. There’s the Brockington front, doing his own thing largely independently from the rest of the floor, and there’s the offense Hunter runs, where so much comes back to the effectiveness of his ball protection and distribution. After last night, though, it’s clearer that it’s really two and a half offenses. The half is Hunter going off on his own side quests, and doing things like hitting seven of eleven threes despite being just a 28% three-point shooter.
Tough game against Wisconsin tomorrow, but they’re all tough at this point, and of the sixteen second round favorites, Wisconsin only rates better than Providence on KenPom. It’s a good draw, even if ISU will be a deserving underdog.
Today’s Games
Quick thoughts on each of the eight, plus the NIT three at the end:
Baylor vs. UNC – 12:10 PM EDT, CBS
Baylor is one Gonzaga disaster away from being the tournament favorite, or at least the best team left standing. They’re banged up, but they’re still so good, and UNC’s great performance on Thursday was more anomalous than it’s being treated. It could definitely happen again, but it’s more likely that Baylor reminds us who they are.
Kansas vs. Creighton – 2:40 PM EDT, CBS
In the second Fort Worth matchup, KU is one Gonzaga away from actually being the tournament favorite, so long as no one else’s path gets dramatically easier. The seven other teams left in the Midwest region rank 8th, 23rd, 24th, 27th, 28th, 29th, and 31st in KenPom among the 32 teams remaining. Outrageously good draw for Kansas from the jump, and it’s gotten a little better with Iowa and LSU going down.
Tennessee vs. Michigan – 5:15 PM EDT, CBS
It’s a good draw for Tennessee on the offensive end, with Michigan good on the boards but not great at much else on that side of the ball. Michigan, meanwhile, will have to rely on a lot of second chance points, and needs players to step up. The Wolverines are decent. Tennessee is good.
Providence vs. Richmond – 6:10 PM EDT, TNT
This should be one of the best games of the day, and it would be fitting, coming from these two, for whom everything has been exciting and a half for a good while now.
UCLA vs. Saint Mary’s – 7:10 PM EDT, TBS
This should be the best game of the day. UCLA and Saint Mary’s are each capable of beating anyone in the country, and their stylistic differences—thought not terribly pronounced—are going to look big once they’re on the court together. UCLA plays like a team with tons of individual talent. Saint Mary’s plays like one of the best-oiled traditional college teams you could draw up. Fun, fun, fun.
Murray State vs. Saint Peter’s – 7:45 PM EDT, CBS
Does the Peacocks’ run continue? It’s not outlandish to think so. KenPom gives them a 25% chance of springing the upset. Either way, we get a non-high-major into the Sweet Sixteen (please do not call Saint Peter’s a mid-major—they are a low-major, through and through, and calling them a mid-major lessens what they’re doing here and also reduces the meaning of words in the English language).
Arkansas vs. New Mexico State – 8:40 PM EDT, TNT
I must be weirdly jaded on New Mexico State, because I keep looking at their matchups and saying, “there’s no way.” There is a way, though, and it goes through the free throw line, and I’m excited about Teddy Allen, who could have an even bigger moment than he did against UConn, where I don’t know if we’ve acknowledge he personally scored over half a point per each of his team’s offensive possessions.
Gonzaga vs. Memphis – 9:40 PM EDT, TBS
I will say, Memphis has talent. I will also say, Gonzaga has more.
**
On the NIT side:
Oregon @ Texas A&M – 12:00 PM EDT, ESPN
Mostly curious if Oregon really shows up. If they do, though, it should be close, because it’s close on paper, and Oregon, bad as they’ve been this year, has the talent.
VCU @ Wake Forest – 4:00 PM EDT, ESPN+
Alondes Williams played 32 minutes in the Towson win, setting aside any doubt about his NIT participation. Wake will need to hold on to the ball a lot better than it’s used to doing, but Williams can take a lot of free throws if he plays this right.
Northern Iowa @ BYU – 9:00 PM EDT, ESPN+
BYU’s perimeter defense is pretty good. Not a great matchup for UNI.
Carlos Correa, Nick Castellanos, Arbitration Hasn’t Happened Yet?
I did not realize arbitration hadn’t happened yet, but then I see notes like, “Mike Soroka agreed to a one-year contract, avoiding arbitration,” and, well, yeah, that makes sense. But that is not the main story here.
The Twins?!?!?
Wild move from Minnesota, but a very fun one. Carlos Correa gets a high-value, high-flexibility (on his side), short-term deal, the Twins get to have a lot of fun this year and quite possibly contend in a winnable division. With the Tigers perhaps not quite there yet, the White Sox flawed, and the Guardians and Royals in bits of rebuilding modes, it’s a good time to take a crack at the playoffs, and good on the Twins for trying to win. Correa, meanwhile, gets to be the centerpiece of a lineup with a little protection still around him. Not as much protection as he had in Houston, but a bit.
Earlier yesterday, Nicholas Castellanos signed with the Phillies on a five-year deal, joining Kyle Schwarber in the outfield/designated hitter mix over there. I still don’t really know what the Phillies are doing—they kind of got stuck behind an unexpectedly good Atlanta team and the aggressive Mets—but the Mets could very well fall apart, and Atlanta’s no sure thing, and the recent surge in signings does have the Phillies much more prominent in the Wild Card mix, which is a good place to be.
For the Cubs, there was never much rumbling about Castellanos, and the Suzuki signing really highlighted where things were going with that. It hurts to not get Correa, but it’s an unfortunate reality about this year’s Cubs that four or five wins probably aren’t going to make the difference. They’re choosing a lower-cost, lower-risk, higher-downside route where it’ll be more challenging to get to the place Correa may well have gotten them to, which is the playoff periphery, a spot where they’d have to decide whether to buy or sell at the deadline. As it stands, it’s fair to hope, but they’re probably going to be deadline sellers. That’s just how things are.
The only other big news, I think, and it’s not huge for baseball practically but it’s big for some sentimentally, is that Kenley Jansen is leaving the Dodgers for Atlanta. End of an era there, and if the Cubs fans who read these want to feel bad about only winning one World Series with that great core, remember that the Dodgers also have just one World Series so far with their great cores. It’s a hard time to be a baseball dynasty. The Yankees had it easier. Franchises were dumber back then, pre-Beane. As for the Giants and Red Sox…not really sure what happened there but I would like to look at their home field results in the playoffs over the years. I’m curious.
Archie Miller, Todd Golden, More on the Way
Archie Miller is getting back into coaching, heading to Dayton’s old A-10 foe Rhode Island. We’ve seen Rhode Island be good recently, so it’s a job where you can win, and Miller’s teams weren’t terrible at Indiana—they were just mediocre, and too consistently mediocre. I’d feel good as a Rhode Island fan, I think. High upside.
Todd Golden, meanwhile, is crossing the country and going to coach at Florida. Kyle Smith laid a good foundation at San Francisco, but it was Golden who broke through, which is worth remembering as Smith has yet to catch fire up at Washington State. Bold hire—pretty unproven, some time in the SEC as Bruce Pearl’s assistant but not a ton of time (and of questionable import), a good San Francisco team but not a great one—but it could work out splendidly, and being willing to roll the dice is kind of why Florida was looking for a new coach in the first place. They had a lot of certainty with Mike White, and that got old.
***
Think that’s it for today. Best games by timeslot go Baylor/UNC, Kansas/Creighton, Tennessee/Michigan, UCLA/Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga/Memphis, but the others will of course be good as well, and there should be a lot happening in primetime. A whole lot happening. Have fun out there.
