Big weekend ahead, friends.
Conference Championship Weekend
Ten conference championships (also a Cal/USC Covid makeup that got a lot more interesting earlier this week) in just over 24 hours. At the end, we get the playoff field. We put together a rooting guide here. Always a fun set of games.
Dabo Swinney? Dave Aranda? Oklahoma’s Honing In.
Bob Stoops has now said he expects Oklahoma to have a coach by Monday, while Pat Forde has reported Matt Campbell is not a candidate for the job. The names batted around seem to be Luke Fickell, Brent Venables, Dave Aranda, Dan Lanning (Georgia defensive coordinator), and…Dabo Swinney. Swinney would obviously be a blockbuster, and it would reopen some Campbell fears for those of us with Iowa State interests (though that feels really unlikely at this moment, partially because Swinney would have to actually leave for OU). Fickell would be interesting because of the timing piece with a potential playoff trip awaiting him. Lanning and Venables would be fairly conventional.
Aranda’s interesting because he’s facing a similar question to the one Campbell keeps facing, which kind of boils down to—outside of financial considerations and job security (both important, no doubt)—whether you’d rather maximize your national championship probability or your number of playoff appearances. If the playoff expands as expected, clearly Baylor and Iowa State will have their playoff chances as two of the healthiest programs right now in the new Big 12 (I would rank it Oklahoma State, BYU, Cincinnati, Baylor, Iowa State, Houston in order, with Cincy bumped back because so many programs might want Fickell). It’s possible Oklahoma will not, as a potentially sputtering program entering the deep new SEC. At the same time, though, Oklahoma’s much more likely to win a national championship in the next decade than Iowa State or Baylor. The ceiling is so much higher for Oklahoma.
One thing I think isn’t given its due with this is that if Aranda or Campbell is really that good a coach, the chances will probably be there. Are they guaranteed? No. But generally speaking, if you’re a good coach, you will have opportunities to coach national championship-capable programs. You don’t have to jump at the first one. It’s risky to not jump at it—plenty of coaches have crashed and burned, or just plateaued at good-not-great—but it’s also risky to jump at the wrong one.
What Is Miami Doing?
Speaking of college football coaching decisions, Miami still has Manny Diaz as their head coach but keeps popping up in speculation about their new head coach. Mario Cristobal is the big name going around today, but Lane Kiffin’s been linked to the job as well at times. Strange, strange stuff. Dysfunctional stuff. If Diaz isn’t your guy, fire him. Get the search rolling. You don’t gain anything by keeping him for a week, and if he isn’t the answer, go try to get the answer. You can’t have it both ways here, and if he isn’t as good as Mario Cristobal, he probably isn’t as good as Miami eventually wants to be again.
Turgeon Out at Maryland
In other coaching news, Maryland and head men’s basketball coach Mark Turgeon are parting ways just eight games into the season. Stunning move. Danny Manning will be the interim coach.
Turgeon and Maryland weren’t working out that badly—tournament trips, and with solid seeds for the most part, in six of seven years—but there was always some frustration there. Still…weird. Wonder if we’ll hear more. Looking forward: The potential is obviously there, being on the outskirts of Washington D.C., but Maryland hasn’t finished in the top ten in KenPom since they made the national championship in 2002. They went four years rather recently without making the dance. It’s not a can’t-miss job, and it’s in a conference capable of eating mediocre teams alive.
We’ll see. No idea what the search will look like.
Alabama/Gonzaga
Alabama takes their crack at the Zags tomorrow night in Seattle. Yet another fun one. Other big games this weekend include Purdue hosting Iowa tonight as Big Ten play kicks off, and…those are probably the two best. Plenty of impactful games, but you’re going to be watching football, right? If not, go ahead and channel surf. You’ll find plenty.
Iowa State vs. Creighton
Oh! One great college basketball game (it’s ok) is ISU’s trip to Omaha tomorrow night to play the Jays. Creighton’s having a down year—graduated a ton of guys—and isn’t as strong offensively as they often are, but the matchup with McDermott is a fun one, and it’s a good measuring stick for ISU, who’ll be a narrow underdog—two possessions, most likely, if the line isn’t out yet. It’s not Iowa State’s toughest test to date, but it’s their first road game, and it’d be a quality win down the line in most scenarios. Tip’s at 8:00 PM Iowa time. FS1.
MLB Lockout Update: No Rules Changes
MLB has decided to not discuss potential rules changes as part of the CBA negotiations, or so is the report today. To be honest, as much as I like Jayson Stark, I don’t have a subscription to The Athletic, so I didn’t read the piece. Might have to consider getting one if that’s gonna be the only place to get this news. Usually it gets aggregated. Someone remind me to follow up on this if I don’t follow up on this. (I don’t dislike The Athletic, but it’s not my favorite outlet, as I think Stu has let on a few times on the interwebs.)
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Viewing schedule: Oregon/Utah tonight, Oklahoma State/Baylor followed by Georgia/Bama on one TV and Cincinnati/Houston on the second screen tomorrow. Michigan/Iowa tomorrow night but switching pretty quick to the Cyclones. Big game!
I’m intending to have a post up Sunday morning about the playoff situation, so I’ll likely just do notes then rather than wait ‘til Monday and let everything pile up. See you there in some fashion.
