The trade deadline is tomorrow, and the pipes appear dangerously full. Not a lot of trades have happened, or it at least doesn’t feel that way, and yet we have a great idea about a lot of big names who are going to move.
One big name we didn’t know for sure was going to move was Josh Hader, but the Brewers did move him today, trading the year and a half of him which remains under club control for a San Diego package including Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, and two prospects who aren’t among the Padres’ best.
It’s an interesting trade, and I’ll be curious to see how it comes out in our trade value calculations tomorrow, but the assumption is that the Brewers are improving their future standing in exchange for a slight risk to their 2022 season, a risk that plays out in two ways: First, through lowering their expected win total ever so slightly for this year, and second, through opening up the possibility that Rogers will blow a decisive October save while Hader pitches well for San Diego. The first is a high probability of a small impact. The second is a small probability of a high impact.
Of course, this is just the assumption. I have a few separate thoughts on the quality of return, and what the fact the Brewers made this trade says about every player involved (David Stearns, like Tampa Bay’s in-game strategy optimizers, may be ahead of the numbers on some things). But let’s stick with the assumption for today, because the concept of trading effective relief pitchers with team control remaining is one I’ve been wanting to talk about, and one the Cubs addressed themselves with the Scott Effross flip (for a solid starting pitcher prospect) this afternoon.
Three years ago, some friends of ours who cover Pittsburgh sports asked me to write something Pirates-related in July. I wrote about how the Pirates, though playoff-possible, needed to trade Felipe Vázquez. Vázquez was, at the time, in the midst of his third straight season with 49 or more innings and a 3.00 or lower FIP. It was something, I discovered, had only been done thirty times since 1999: A rare feat. It was also, I discovered, something that continued for a fourth year only eleven of those thirty times.
It’s rare for a relief pitcher to be continuously effective, and even three years in a row doesn’t guarantee a fourth. Examples of this are everywhere: Craig Kimbrel was sensational for seven straight years, hardly struggled at all in the eighth, and then blew up with the Cubs across 2019 and 2020. Aroldis Chapman was unhittable for nine full pre-2020 seasons before falling off these last 18 months, and falling off hard. Speaking more to the Cubs fans in the room, Carlos Marmol was electric in 2007, and again in 2010. He never could sustain it.
You don’t know when it will happen, but with nearly every relief pitcher, things eventually turn south. I need more data to present this as a rule—a simple WAR correlation year-over-year broken out by position group would be useful, but we don’t have time for that at the moment—so I won’t say it with certainty, but the 11-for-30 number with Vázquez does say something, and what it says is that if you’re thinking of holding onto a reliever, you should think about it really hard. The rule, if I can get the data to say this with basis, is that trading relievers is almost always smart.
Does this mean it’s dumb to trade for a relief pitcher? No. I don’t think what the Yankees did, trading for Effross, was dumb (and I don’t think the Padres did anything dumb either, but that’s partially because I don’t think they actually gave too much up). Again, I’d need more data to prove this, but my impression is that the first four months of a pitcher’s season are decent predictors of the last two (or three) months, and also: What choice do you have, if you need bullpen help?
Running through the rest of the league, division by division, with thoughts on it all:
AL East
The Yankees have been busy, adding Andrew Benintendi, Frankie Montas, Effross, and even Lou Trivino. Benintendi and Montas are significant pickups, and it’s possible the Yankees aren’t done yet. Still, shy of the Yanks acquiring Juan Soto or two or more players at the Benintendi/Montas level, I have a hard time believing they’ll actually pass the Astros on paper, especially with the Astros making additions of their own. I’d guess that they don’t, and I’d guess that slowly over the next couple of weeks, futures markets adjust to that.
The Blue Jays have been quiet so far, and I haven’t heard much on whether or not that will change. They’re already among baseball’s best rosters (they’re pretty clearly the third-best team in the AL right now), but you can always get better, and they certainly have weaknesses they could address.
The Rays were involved in a smaller move today, a three-team mixer that got them Jose Siri from Houston (the Trey Mancini trade). Maybe I’m overweighting the Nelson Cruz move historically, but their formula seems to be to make sensible, impactful, non-splashy deadline deals, and given their place in the standings (50/50 to make the playoffs, duking it out for two spots with the Red Sox, Mariners, and whichever two teams lose the AL Central), that could be enough to make a big difference this year. We’ll see what happens tonight and tomorrow, but I’d guess we look back on things later this week and say something to the effect of, “Ok, yeah, the Rays are making these playoffs.”
The Orioles trading Mancini was sad and cynical but unfortunately, probably smart. They just didn’t quite get hot enough or do it early enough to really force the front office to decide whether to chase contention. The question now will be whether this is actually a talented roster already or if the recent hot stretch has been a mirage.
The Red Sox are spiraling, and could do a hard sell-off, but they aren’t that far out of the actual playoff race. They trail the Rays by three and a half right now for the final playoff slot even after all the losing they’ve been doing. The Orioles and the AL Central are between them and Tampa Bay, but Boston’s better than all four of those teams on paper. If they sell one or two parts, though, that does start to change.
AL Central
This Boston fade is massive news for all three of the AL Central contenders, none of whom are particularly good but all of whom now have a realistic hope for a Wild Card to go along with their realistic division title ambitions. The uncertainty here might be widest. It wouldn’t be surprising to see any do what the Brewers did and softly sell while still trying to contend. It wouldn’t be surprising to see any go all-in.
AL West
The Astros got Mancini, and they’ll likely add more, though they aren’t expected to be splashy, partially due to limited prospect resources. The Mariners, meanwhile, have been very splashy, adding Luis Castillo from the Reds at a steep price on Friday. They’re in a position where missing the playoffs would be crushing, and they’re treating it as such. They have little to no chance at winning the division, but they’re one great week away from having a berth all but wrapped up. They may not be done buying.
NL East
The Mets figure to be aggressive, but that’s mostly because that’s the Steve Cohen way. Atlanta’s just about empty on the prospect front, which makes the Mets’ advantage potentially even bigger than the three games. Alex Anthopoulos could try to pull off the same Eddie Rosario/Jorge Soler-style magic as last year, but at this stage, we should probably be referring to that with a little more skepticism in the luck-vs.-skill arena. Do it a few more times and we’ll give him more due.
I’m curious about the Phillies. They have a pretty good playoff shot but I’m not hearing much said about them at all. Maybe I’m just not looking in the right places.
NL Central
One of many things the Hader trade says, to me, is that the Brewers are willing to risk losing the division to the Cardinals, or that they don’t think the Cardinals are really that big of a threat. St. Louis has been getting a lot of noise in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, but it’s unclear that they’re willing to pay the Nationals’ price. It’s really hard to know with them.
If the Cardinals don’t win the Central, they’re also in the Wild Card hunt, in what’s looking more and more like a head-to-head race with Philadelphia for the final spot. I suppose another question there is what the value is in being the sixth seed. Path-wise, it shouldn’t be worse than being the fifth seed, but if you’re not good enough to get a top four or five seed…are you really going to make any noise?
NL West
The Dodgers and Padres are also getting a lot of Soto ink, with the Padres potentially even willing to go into luxury tax territory this season in their own Mariners-esque playoff desperation (they made it in 2020, but that was a weird season and they couldn’t get past Los Angeles). Last year’s Max Scherzer happenings, when San Diego seemed to have him and then Los Angeles stunned by acquiring both him and Trea Turner, are being cited often, but the situation was different for the Dodgers at that stage. They already have the division pretty much locked up this year. They didn’t even win it last season. Soto’s a multi-year acquisition, though, so who knows.
Finally, the Giants. Like the Red Sox, the Giants’ recent swoon has turned them into a potential seller. Even an expected one, to hear some tell it. They aren’t in a position where they have to make a move, but it would be understandable for them to punt on this year. They didn’t do themselves a disservice by winning so many games last year, but they certainly set unrealistic expectations for this year’s team.
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Overall, the word is that everyone’s waiting on Soto, but I also wonder if the Red Sox’ and Giants’ turns are making this more complicated. And if everyone’s waiting on Soto…why? The Nationals don’t have any reason to not push that right up to the deadline.
To do a brief categorization, I think we’ll come out of this with the Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees still the main characters; the Mets a half-step below them; Atlanta a half-step below the Mets; and then a lump of Blue Jays, Brewers, and Padres trying to win the World Series; the Mariners and Rays trying to lock up playoff berths; the Phillies, Cardinals, Twins, White Sox, and Guardians in various dogfights; and the Giants and Red Sox pushing a rope to get back in things. And honestly, I don’t think what happens with trades will meaningfully change any of that, except that Soto going to the Cardinals would be bad news for the Brewers & Phillies and that the Giants and Red Sox might really rip the bottom off. Trades only mean so much, and while they mean a lot, their impact is always going to be marginal until viewed with the benefit of hindsight. By some definitions, Jorge Soler was last year’s biggest pickup.
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Viewing schedule for the evening, second screen rotation in italics:
- 7:05 PM EDT: Seattle @ New York (AL), Gonzales vs. Germán (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- 7:05 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Washington, Scherzer vs. Corbin (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Arizona @ Cleveland, Davies vs. Quantrill (MLB TV)
- 7:40 PM EDT: Detroit @ Minnesota, Skubal vs. Sanchez (MLB TV)
- 8:00 PM EDT: Boston @ Houston, Eovaldi vs. Garcia (ESPN)
- 8:05 PM EDT: Baltimore @ Texas, Watkins vs. Gray (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Kansas City @ Chicago (AL), Lynch vs. Kopech (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: Colorado @ San Diego, Senzatela vs. Clevinger (MLB TV)
- 9:45 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ San Francisco, Heaney vs. Webb (MLB TV)
