It’s Jackie Robinson day, and I love the touch of switching the numbers to Dodger Blue. This day, and how the day is celebrated, is a cool thing, and there’s always that debate over whether it’s performative, but even if it was (and I’m not saying it is), it’d be better to do something good for the wrong reasons than to not do something good at all. There’s more that can and should be done to invest in the game in Black communities, with the number of Black players in MLB waning, but the fact we’re talking about that today also speaks to this day being productive towards those ends. Massive credit to those players (Jason Heyward, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, David Price, others) who are donating their game checks to inner city and rural baseball programs. Would love some reporting on those programs and what fans can do to support them.
This Tom Brady Thing Is Weird
The Tom Brady Dolphins story is wild. SB Nation has a good, quick breakdown of the bones of it, but the shortest version if that allegedly, there were some backroom plans for Brady to join the Dolphins’ front office (possibly with an ownership stake), the Dolphins to bring in Sean Payton, and once the Bucs moved on, for Brady to announce his unretirement and the Dolphins to then make a trade with the Bucs to make Brady their quarterback. The idea is that this not only explains the Brian Flores firing (Brady wanted a coach like Payton), but was derailed because the Flores lawsuit’s opening up of Stephen Ross’s communications to the public eye could have demonstrated it was orchestrated ahead of time, with no plan in place to abide by the Rooney Rule and massive tampering involved. I’d imagine the lawsuit might still make that public? This feels like it could swell, and I wonder how Bruce Arians’ move to the front office is or isn’t related. Also, were the Dolphins the target so Brady could compete directly with Bill Belichick? I hope so. For the drama of it all.
Sammy Watkins: Packer
While we’re on the NFL: Sammy Watkins is a Packer now, and while I get the negative reactions, it’s not like Brian Gutekunst signed the guy to be the number one receiver. He’s just one piece. He’s not there to be the Davante Adams of this offense. There will not be a Davante Adams-esque receiver, but the Packers drafting a contributing receiver seems likely, giving a core five of Allen Lazard, Watkins, Randall Cobb, the draftee, and Amari Rodgers. That isn’t an amazing receiving corps, but coupled with Robert Tonyan likely being back from his ACL tear in time for Week 1 and Aaron Jones a solid receiving back, it can work. Might even work well.
One more NFL thing: Remember when we were considering the possibility Kyler Murray would be the Packers quarterback this year? There’s something with offseasons where once a move has been made, it feels like it’s been the case forever. The uncertainty that preceded it feels like a foreign life. Aaron Rodgers will be quarterbacking the Packers this year. That’s still a really big deal.
A Good Win for the Cubs
There was a moment last night, as the Rockies were sending baserunner after baserunner to the bases and the Cubs’ lead was dwindling from reasonably comfortable to decidedly uncomfortable, when it felt like a young team was unraveling. Then, Keegan Thompson came in, he escaped the jam, Frank Schwindel homered, and Thompson held the lead for three more innings. It was the sort of thing it feels like good teams do—winning a game that looked like it was headed off the rails—and while I don’t know how important this actually is, it’s at least something that will inspire future confidence, which can’t be a bad thing.
Justin Steele was solid again, striking out four and walking just two over 80 pitches. He’s still building his arm up, and a low innings count for the year might be part of the Cubs’ overall plan for him, so the 80-pitch thing isn’t a cause for concern. Rather, we probably shouldn’t get used to him working into the fifth. Still, he’s been a pleasant surprise so far. We thought he could be good, but we thought that more likely in a bullpen role.
There were some miscues in the game that added to the fifth-inning dread, with Seiya Suzuki having a rough night in terms of gaffes, but wins wash such things away. This was a game—against a probably-bad team, coming off a loss, opening a four-game series—it would have stunk to lose. Winning it wasn’t big, but not losing it might have been.
The Cubs still haven’t announced a starter for tomorrow, and it’s unclear if Thompson will drop his appeal and get the suspension over with now that he needs some rest but I kind of think he won’t, since we haven’t heard anything yet. Realistically, it shouldn’t have too big an immediate impact whether he does or doesn’t, though of course, every little bit matters.
Tonight, it’s Marcus Stroman vs. Germán Márquez. Tomorrow, Antonio Senzatela pitches for the Rockies. Sunday, it’s Drew Smyly vs. Austin Gomber. Márquez is expected to be the best of the three this year, Senzatela is solid, and Gomber isn’t bad. Cubs have their work cut out for them as they look to take two of the three and stay on track to end the month above .500.
Transfer News
Andre Curbelo is going to St. John’s, and I don’t know why, but that feels like a good fit brand-wise. Maybe it’s the shared reputation for inconsistency and some chaos.
In other point guard developments, Grant Sherfield of Nevada (formerly Wichita State) has entered the portal. He’s a great offensive player with two years of eligibility left, but he’ll turn 23 before the season starts, so this may be his final year.
FPI
ESPN released FPI for the upcoming college football season yesterday. Texas was the biggest eye-popper, coming in at 6th, while Pitt was 9th and Texas A&M was down at 14th. I’m a bit confused by the disparity between Texas and Texas A&M, since one would think recruiting would be driving Texas’s place, but Texas A&M has the best incoming freshman class. Maybe it’s a lagging variable in the model and I haven’t been paying close enough attention.
Overall, FPI isn’t a bad system. I prefer SP+, but I haven’t done much digging on the accuracy of the two. My preference comes more from an affinity for Bill Connelly’s transparency. FPI’s a little bit of a black box. When you’re ESPN, you can get away with mediocrity and opacity, and FPI isn’t mediocre but some of ESPN’s playoff models are (they seem to have multiple playoff models, possibly because of the mediocrity). All are opaque. When you’re us, or you’re what Bill Connelly was before ESPN picked him up, you have to be more transparent. This is all fair, but this is how it works, and part of what we’re up against with our College Football Playoff model, which we’re looking to develop more deeply and market more aggressively again this year.
On the Iowa State side, the Big 12 rankings are as follows, with grade in parentheses (these are straight-up neutral-field point differences):
- 6. Texas (17.4)
- 8. Oklahoma (15.6)
- 13. Oklahoma State (13.0)
- 19. Baylor (12.0)
- 27. Iowa State (9.7)
- 39. Kansas State (6.7)
- 42. TCU (6.5)
- 48. Texas Tech (4.6)
- 52. West Virginia (3.4)
- 97. Kansas (-7.2)
This is much more optimistic regarding the Cyclones than SP+ is, but we won’t complain. FPI projects Iowa State will win seven or eight games (SP+ has the Cyclones more in the six-win range) and indicates State will be a very narrow underdog at Iowa. Overall, you can say that Iowa State will probably be a one-score underdog in Iowa City, barring early-week surprise, and that Iowa State’s probably going to win between five and eight games.
Student Section Movement
In other ISU news, Jamie Pollard announced today in an email that Iowa State will be moving the student section at Jack Trice Stadium to avoid affecting the visiting team trying to leave the field in the event the field is stormed. This seems wise. If you can avoid something going wrong and it doesn’t cost you anything notable, do it.
Dirt Racing at Bristol
NASCAR’s racing at Bristol this weekend, and they’re doing it on dirt. It’s a bit of a wild card, being so new, but we do have a few bets for it. Racing will be tomorrow night, with some qualifying heats and a Truck race, and Sunday night, with the main Cup race.
***
Viewing schedule this weekend (second screen in italics where relevant, apologies to NASCAR but Stu’s got eyes on that for us):
Friday
- 6:30 PM EDT – Oklahoma State @ West Virginia, baseball (ESPN+)
- 7:30 PM EDT – Hawks @ Cavaliers, NBA 8th Seed Game (ESPN)
- 8:10 PM EDT – Cubs @ Rockies (Regional TV)
- 10:00 PM EDT – Pelicans @ Clippers, NBA 8th Seed Game (ESPN)
Saturday
- 1:00 PM EDT – Jazz @ Mavericks, Game 1 (ESPN)
- 2:10 PM EDT – Rays @ White Sox, Kluber vs. Kopech (Regional TV)
- 3:30 PM EDT – Timberwolves @ Grizzlies, Game 1 (ESPN)
- 6:00 PM EDT – Raptors @ 76ers, Game 1 (ESPN)
- 8:10 PM EDT – Cubs @ Rockies (Regional TV)
- 8:30 PM EDT – Nuggets @ Warriors (ABC)
Sunday
- 1:00 PM EDT – Hawks/Cavaliers @ Heat, Game 1 (TNT)
- 2:10 PM EDT – Cubs @ Rockies (Regional TV)
- 3:30 PM EDT – Nets @ Celtics, Game 1 (ABC)
- 6:30 PM EDT – Bulls @ Bucks, Game 1 (TNT)
- 7:00 PM EDT – Atlanta @ Padres, Elder vs. Darvish (ESPN)
- 9:00 PM EDT – Pelicans/Clippers @ Suns (TNT)
