We’ve been circling this paradigm for a little while, but we’re zeroing in on it today: To win the NCAA Tournament, a team should—not necessarily must, because look at our options, but should—look something like the following:
- A good, multi-dimensional offense.
- A solid defense.
- A very good overall team (duh, but hear us out).
Duh, you might say, to all of this. And that’d be fair! But look at the AP Poll right now: Purdue is ranked first in the country but hardly has a top-25 defense, by KenPom. Arizona is ranked fifth and does not have a top-50 KenPom defense. Houston is ranked third and has a KenPom offense ranked 20th.
This isn’t to say that Purdue, Houston, or Arizona is not the best, third-best, or-fifth-best team in the country. That’s a different argument. The point of these specific wordings above—“multi-dimensional,” “solid,” is that the act of winning six straight basketball games in March requires consistency, and it requires an absence of vulnerability to specific problems: The offense going cold. The defense getting lit up from three-point land. There will always be the risk of simply running into a better team, unless you are the very best team, but the very best team can get beaten. Virginia was reasonably believed to be the very best team before they played UMBC in 2018. Their offense (ranked 30th in KenPom) didn’t hold up.
The consistency question explains, we opine, any real significance behind the idea that national champions must be ranked in the top 25 both offensively and defensively on KenPom. It’s not enough to be good. You also can’t be too vulnerable. There will always be exceptions—it’s only six games, randomness is high–but if you can make some trade with the devil where you exchange a little ability for an increase in consistency, you might want to take it. They say “survive and advance” for a reason.
Which teams this year, then? Right now, we’d say it goes like this:
Real Contenders: UConn, UCLA, Kansas
There is reason to doubt all three of these, which speaks a little to the state of college basketball as a whole this year. There’s no clear dominant team the way there’s so often been one in recent seasons. At least, not yet. UConn has the best claim, but they’ve beaten exactly one team that’s an assured tournament outfit, and that win came on the second day of a neutral-site tournament in November. UConn is untested, relative to their counterparts.
UCLA is tested, but they’ve lost in two of their tests. This last week was as meaningful for the Bruins as it was because back in November, they faced Illinois and Baylor and lost each game, neither really at the buzzer. They didn’t lay an egg in either contest, but it’s going to take a lot of wins to thoroughly wash that memory.
Kansas did lay an egg once, against Tennessee (also in November), but they’ve notched wins over Duke and Indiana, and there aren’t a lot who’ve done more than that. Like UCLA, not the most inspiring, but believable. The realest contenders we’ve got.
Very Good, Significant Questions: Houston, Tennessee, Texas, Purdue, Kentucky, Arizona, Gonzaga
Houston and Tennessee have offense questions. Purdue, Arizona, and Gonzaga have defense questions. Texas has a major off-court question concerning Chris Beard. Kentucky has a major on-court question where the final product is oddly lower than the sum of its parts. There are other issues mixed in for each, and we could go into more detail, but this is the high-level idea.
Good, Not Very-Good: Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, Duke, Baylor
Each of these teams would be a healthy underdog right now against UCLA, Kansas, or UConn. No questions asked. Could they upset them? Yes. Could they get better and crack into these tiers above them? Yes. Could they get hot and win six at the right time? Sure. But they’re not good enough overall products right now for that to be a reasonable expectation.
This isn’t gospel. But it’s our current outlook.
The Packers’ Playoff Path
Before we get into this: Yes, I know it’s probably foolish to put much hope into this. But at the same time, why not hope in it? What does that lose anybody? At the moment, it’s the only thing standing between playing to win and playing to learn what pieces are on board for next year.
The Packers did win last night, pushing their playoff likelihood, per FPI, to 11.5%. The probability they win out, per FPI, is 14.3%, so if we assume the Packers must win out to make the playoff field (it’s possible they don’t need that, but I’d guess they do), their conditional playoff probability is 80.4%. They have a four-in-five chance of making the playoffs if they win out.
The Packers do not hold the head-to-head advantage over the Commanders or Giants, but each has tied a game, so the Packers ending up directly tied with either is unlikely. The Packers will, in situations where this is relevant, have split with the Lions head-to-head, sending the tiebreaker to conference record, where each would be 7-5, sending the tiebreaker to results against common opponents, where the Lions would be 6-6 and the Packers would be…6-6, sending the tiebreaker to strength of victory, where the Lions currently lead but the Packers could do some catching up. Let’s call that inconclusive. Finally, with the Seahawks, the Packers would own any hypothetical two-way tiebreaker by having the better conference record in situations where it’s applicable.
What’s the 80%, then? It’s three of the four following occurrences occurring:
- Giants lose out.
- Commanders lose at least two more.
- Seahawks lose at least one more.
- Packers take strength of victory from the Lions OR Lions lose one to someone besides the Packers.
That’s the 80%-likely part. The 14.3%-likely part is the Packers winning out themselves. Together, that’s where we get our 11.5%. (Please let me know if you notice a mistake in here.)
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Viewing schedule for the day, second screen rotation in italics:
Bowl Games
- 3:30 PM EST: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State (ESPN)
- 7:30 PM EST: Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty vs. Toledo (ESPN)
College Basketball (best game by evening time slot)
- 7:00 PM EST: Marquette @ Providence (ACCN)
- 8:30 PM EST: Virginia @ Miami (ACCN)
- 9:30 PM EST: Oklahoma vs. Florida (ESPN2)
NBA (best game, plus the Bulls)
- 7:30 PM EST: Bulls @ Miami (League Pass)
- 10:00 PM EST: Memphis @ Denver (TNT)
NHL (best game)
- 7:00 PM EST: Tampa Bay @ Toronto (ESPN+)
