I’m a little surprised rain doesn’t affect the MLB playoffs more often. Maybe it does, and I just don’t remember it, or maybe I have an improper perception of the probability of rain in October, or maybe I just heard about the 1975 World Series as a kid and that never got out of my head. Whatever the case, the end result is the same: I’m always ready for playoff rain.
We’ve only gotten a little of it so far. There was Wednesday’s delay in Atlanta and there was yesterday’s postponement in New York. It’s made its impact felt, though. In the latter instance, we’re now looking at a potential four games in four days, with two flights mixed in. This isn’t uncommon for baseball—teams play four days in a row all the time, teams fly all over the country all the time—and the flights in this case aren’t far: Cleveland and New York are an easy distance apart. But, this does affect things. There’d been an avenue for the Guardians to start Shane Bieber on three days’ rest if a Game 5 happened. That avenue is gone. He gets one start, and it’s today, and that’s it. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s bullpen superiority is lessened because that strength comes more at the top than it comes from depth. The Yankees’ relief corps is mediocre enough that a pitcher needing to rest won’t move the needle as much as it would were Emmanuel Clase or James Karinchak unavailable, or available at much less than full capacity.
One quieter spot where an absence of rest can come into play is the catcher position. Four games of high-pressure squatting in a row are a lot, and these guys have been squatting for almost eight months now. Their knees are tired. The Yankees are more comfortable using a full platoon behind the dish, so maybe they’re better-equipped for this, but it’s hard to know how the individual players will be individually affected.
More than anything, with Houston taking a likely decisive 2-0 lead over Seattle yesterday across the league, this sets up the Astros better and better the more chaotic the Guardians/Yankees series gets. The ALCS starts on Wednesday, probably in Houston, and it continues Thursday, leaving open the possibility of the Guardians/Yankees winner having to spend six days out of seven leaning heavily on their pitching staffs and primary catchers while embarking on three different flights. Then, the final five games of the ALCS are scheduled for five days in a row. Long story short, the Yankees want to wrap this series up quickly, and the Astros hope it goes five games, and it’s comparable to regular season baseball but the point with playoff baseball is that it’s different enough that rest becomes more essential. Managers can’t as easily punt on certain games like they can in June.
Yordan Alvarez, Monster
The Mariners’ magic run is nearly over, and Yordan Alvarez is to thank. Again, yesterday, he hit the game-winning home run, and while it wasn’t as dramatic as Tuesday’s, the effects multiply. Seattle had Tuesday’s game won, but their bullpen came up short. Seattle had a leg up yesterday, but their best—Luis Castillo—couldn’t beat Houston’s best—Alvarez. Now, the Astros are rolling, with a chance to put the Mariners away tomorrow and spend another few days stretching and sleeping. A 2-0 lead is a large one.
Atlanta’s Pitching Strider
Spencer Strider is starting for Atlanta today less than a month after being sidelined with an oblique injury. It’s an unusually fast turnaround, and I wonder if part of the reason behind his extension timing was that he and the front office both knew this particular start could end badly. Obliques are important pieces of a baseball player’s body. It’s hard to do things well when they’re not at full strength. Atlanta has other options—Charlie Morton, the scheduled Game 4 starter, is a good pitcher—but they’re rolling with Strider, implying they think the upside is high enough to justify the downside in a game where the offense will be tasked with keeping up against Aaron Nola, one of the best pitchers in the game. It’s quite the script. Ominous, some would say.
Can the Dodgers’ Bullpen Keep Up?
Tony Gonsolin is not a fraud. He didn’t choose his luck or his (in)ability to work through the order multiple times. But the 16-1 pitcher with the 2.14 ERA has only a 3.28 FIP (still good, just now 2.14) and averaged less than five and a half innings per start this year (not very good). He also spent September sidelined and has therefore only thrown two innings since August 23rd. He lasted seven innings on only three occasions this season.
The result is that Los Angeles, playing in San Diego against Blake Snell, will likely need a lot from a shuffled group of relievers. Evan Phillips has blossomed, and Chris Martin was a consequential trade deadline pickup, but Blake Treinen had a bad time when he went out there earlier this week and Craig Kimbrel is an anxiety-inducer for Dodgers fans. It’s a messy situation, and it leaves a lot of pressure on the Los Angeles bats.
Housekeeping
Ugh. More of this. Apologies for the sparseness and the delays. Our goals for the weekend are to get Gelo live, to get conference tiebreakers into the college football model, and to catch up on other matters with some weekend notes. Our goals for next week are to catch up on soccer and college football futures (triple futures, what a buzz) while starting our NHL and NBA futures for the year. Our goals for the following week are to launch our college basketball models. Our primary focus, though, is managing the MLB portfolio. We could really use another Padres win tonight. And the Phillies and Guardians winning wouldn’t hurt (unless we hedge against the Guards, which we might—that’s next on the to-do list).
**
Viewing schedule for Friday:
- 1:07 PM EDT: Cleveland @ New York (AL), Bieber vs. Cortes (TBS)
- 4:37 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Philadelphia, Strider vs. Nola (FS1)
- 8:37 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ San Diego, Gonsolin vs. Snell (FS1)
