I’m not sure where I got this, or whether I was alone in it, but when Aaron Rodgers signed his deal last winter I was under the impression it was going to keep him in Wisconsin for at least two years. Was this the narrative? Did I misunderstand something? We might never know. Either way, that impression was firmly wrong. Turns out, this was year-to-year from the outset.
That does not mean that the Packers are going to trade Aaron Rodgers, or that Aaron Rodgers is going to retire. It just means that my prior thinking—that Rodgers was in for 2022 and 2023—was wrong, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there are others experiencing the same moment of recognition. The Packers might not trade Aaron Rodgers. But they might trade him. Trading him is possible.
Yesterday, Ian Rapaport went on the Pat McAfee Show and said a lot of unsurprising but interesting things. The Packers, per Rapaport, like Jordan Love. Rodgers, per Rapaport, is owed roughly sixty million dollars next year. The Packers, per Rapaport, could trade Rodgers, but it would require an “astronomical” return. We already knew the $60M thing, and again, the other bits aren’t surprising, but taken as a whole, it’s a positive framing of where the Packers stand with Rodgers. Barring retirement—which would hurt but would open up $60M for present and future use—the Packers will either have another year with one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game or they’ll get an “astronomical” haul and go forward with a quarterback they seem to have the league convinced they like. It’s a pair of good paths, and while retirement would be worse than both, it would also keep Aaron Rodgers away from the rest of the league, which wouldn’t hurt.
On the topic of Jordan Love, and on how much the Packers like him: It’s possible they don’t fully have the league convinced. It’s possible Ian Rapaport is carrying some water for his Packers sources. At the same time, though, nobody is saying the Packers don’t like Love. There’s none of that floating around. So, either the Packers are successfully keeping everybody’s lips tight, or the Packers do feel pretty good about the quarterback they’ve got. Could they be wrong? Sure. Could they be fattening him up for a trade? Maybe. But they’ve spent three years now developing this quarterback and they aren’t cutting bait, and that’s about as good an indication as we could have aside from them aggressively ushering Rodgers out the door.
Brock Purdy Has Short Arms
Credit to Rodger Sherman on this, but going back to our discussion yesterday of Brock Purdy looking smaller than he is: Purdy’s arms are historically short for an NFL quarterback. In the history of the NFL combine, only one quarterback has had shorter arms than Brock Purdy, and that’s the famously tiny Kyler Murray. Do arms impact how we perceive a person’s size? They might, honestly. Think of Bonzie Colson, the Notre Dame big man a few years ago. Only 6’6”, but his 7’2” wingspan helped him look serviceable in the defensive paint. There was other stuff going on with Colson—he was a thick man—but when I think of Purdy looking small, I think of him on his toes in the pocket with his elbows tucked in and the ball beneath his chin. The arms are doing some of the work there.
Kansas, Baylor
Kansas dropped its third straight last night, falling in Waco in a game where they widely trailed then briefly regained an edge then watched that edge slip rapidly away. Bill Self played his starters for 85% of the possible minutes, throwing his best at the problem, and the Jayhawks went a perfect 16-for-16 at the line. Still, they went down again, in a game where they were only competitive for two brief, loud stints.
Kansas has the talent and the coaching to be fine, but Self showed his hand a little riding the starters two days after they ran up and down the floor with TCU. This team doesn’t have depth. 85% of possible minutes. The nation average, from KenPom, is 69%. The Jayhawks’ own average is 78%, but that looks set to rise as competitive games become a larger and larger slice of the pie. This team has little after its first five.
To put some numbers on the dropoff when Joseph Yesufu (or any other bench guy) comes on the floor: The dropoff in individual player rating from KJ Adams to Yesufu is larger than the spread between Jaren Holmes and any of Iowa State’s reserves. Iowa State’s whole bench, relatively to the worst-rated starter, fits in the space between Adams and Yesufu. And by bench minutes, Iowa State is nearly dead average. The thinness of the lineup is what’s hurting Kansas right now. They can’t effectively turn to anybody else when they need the things bench players provide: a spark, a hot hand, fresh legs, a competent body. Yesufu is a good player. He’s better than Bobby Pettiford, using EvanMiya’s numbers. But you need a better sixth man if you’re going to avoid losing streaks like this one, and Bill Self knows that. That’s why Yesufu and Pettiford both are riding so much pine.
On the Baylor side, things are going remarkably well. They lost three games in a row themselves at one point not too long ago, falling in a hostile road environment and at home against TCU and against a feisty Kansas State team. They’ve since recovered, taking advantage of a soft stretch in the schedule but also winning three times on the road and connecting when they got to take their swing at KU. A week ago, this league was looking like it could become a three-team race. Now, there are six believable conference champions. Some of that is Kansas spinning out, but a lot is Baylor—and TCU—rallying.
The Wildcats Come to Ames
At the moment, Kansas State is still first in the Big 12 and all alone in that position. They’re 6-1 in league play, their only loss is on the road in Fort Worth, they’ve beaten Kansas and won in Austin and Waco.
And yet the numbers don’t buy what Jerome Tang is selling.
K-State is only 26th in KenPom entering this evening’s clash. The NET rankings have them 16th. Each has at least four Big 12 teams between them and Houston, the top-rated squad in the country.
What’s the deal?
Kansas State, for the first two months of the season, looked like a program making progress. Their nonconference slate graded out fine, but largely because they avoided playing too many terrible teams. They beat Cal, LSU, Wichita State, and Nebraska, all of whom will almost definitely miss all postseason tournaments unless Wichita agrees to play in the CBI. They lost to Butler, who’s in a similar situation. Their lone nonconference win of note came in overtime in the Cayman Islands against fellow bubbler Nevada. Then, they opened Big 12 play and shot the piss out of the ball, kind of like Iowa State but with tempo.
Kansas State and Iowa State are in similar boats here—dramatic recent risers fueled by an offensive surge. Iowa State, though, has won more convincingly, and for the narrative’s sake, Iowa State grabbed attention earlier, taking down UNC over Thanksgiving weekend. That narrative piece doesn’t matter, unless you think it’s important to be used to having eyes on you, which has some merit but is naturally subjective. The close wins piece does matter. K-State is 4-0 in overtime games. Half of K-State’s Big 12 games have come in overtime. While the Cyclones are 2-2 in one-possession conference games, the Wildcats are 2-0, and 3-0 if you include the other overtime game on the list (they beat West Virginia by six). The boats are similar, but Kansas State’s is a little more wobbly, which is a lot of why ISU’s as heavily favored as it is tonight, expected to win by five even with Caleb Grill questionable with his back tightness.
Really, we’re three shots in the right places away from this being a terrible trap game for Iowa State, who could easily be 6-1 themselves playing a 4-3 team fighting to stay out of the back–of–the–standings muck. Instead, it’s a marquee matchup, and Hilton should be rocking.
Matchups do matter, and if Gabe Kalscheur draws Keyontae Johnson on the defensive end, Johnson’s not the type of player we’re used to seeing Kalscheur lock down. Really, though, this is going to be about Iowa State controlling the tempo—not letting K-State run wild—and Iowa State not forcing threes if they aren’t there. The shooting’s been huge in conference play so far, but it likely has an expiration date. The perimeter is where Kansas State’s defense excels the most. Try to get Osun Osunniyi going on offense. Try to get Osun Osunniyi to the line. Trap like hell on the defensive end. Make it a grind for the visitors.
Bracketology Update
We’ve been updating our bracketology on Tuesdays, but that isn’t happening today. Look for it tomorrow instead. You aren’t missing anything.
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What’s happening today:
College Basketball (the big game)
- 9:00 PM EST: Kansas State @ Iowa State (ESPNU)
College Basketball (the good games)
- 6:30 PM EST: Penn State @ Rutgers (BTN)
- 7:00 PM EST: Ohio State @ Illinois (ESPN)
- 8:00 PM EST: Oklahoma @ TCU (ESPN+)
- 9:00 PM EST: Oklahoma State @ Texas (LHN)
NBA (best game, plus the Bulls)
- 7:00 PM EST: Bulls @ Indiana (League Pass)
- 7:30 PM EST: Boston @ Miami (TNT)
NHL (best game)
- 7:00 PM EST: Minnesota @ Tampa Bay (ESPN+)
League Cup
- 3:00 PM EST: Newcastle @ Southampton – 1st Leg (ESPN+)
FA Cup
- 2:45 PM EST: Boreham Wood @ Accrington Stanley
Australian Open
- 7:00 PM EST: Broadcasts start on ESPN+
- 9:00 PM EST: Broadcast starts on ESPN2
