Joe’s Notes: The Orioles Are the 0.1%

The Orioles are either a decent baseball team or a bad one. They might make the playoffs. They might finish with a losing record. We really don’t know what to expect out of them. Trying, at this point, seems to be a fool’s errand.

Last night, Rougned Odor hit a two-run home run in the eighth inning to propel Baltimore to a 6-5 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. The win pulled Baltimore within half a game of playoff position, and just two games back of the Jays. The home run was Odor’s eleventh of the season after the once-promising infielder was released by the Yankees last November.

All of this would be fairly routine stuff, even down to Odor hanging around a competitive baseball team. Players get released and get back on their feet all the time. What’s unique is that this is the Orioles, and that the Orioles, on paper, are a 69-win team. 69 wins. That’s what you get when you extrapolate FanGraphs’s evaluations of the team’s strength over a full, 162-game season. A 69-win team on paper, the Orioles are on pace for 85 wins on the actual field of play. They’ve gone from a lottery contender to a playoff contender, and they’ve done it in just over a month, and they’ve continued to do it even after trading their closer and one of their best hitters, a hitter who happened to be the heart and the soul of the franchise.

On the morning of July 3^rd, the Orioles were 35-44, on pace for a 72-win season, just better than the most reasonable expectation. July 3^rd was the day the winning streak started, and right before it ended, ten victories later, we asked whether they could really “do this,” whether they could really make the playoffs. Our answer was, with chagrin, that they couldn’t, or that it was very unlikely that they could. Our answer would still be the same today, were we to ask the question again. But the magic of the Orioles continues, and who are we to quarrel with magic? Especially when the magic has chosen to back such a worthy cause.

The winning streak wasn’t where the Orioles stopped. They haven’t reeled off ten in a row again in the days since, but they’ve won 13 of 21 over that stretch, including seven of eight since trading Trey Mancini. All of that, taken together, puts them on a 23-8 tear, and that 23-8 tear has them still very playoff unlikely—just 6.7% probable, per FanGraphs—but about four times likelier than they were when we last checked in and somewhere around one hundred times more likely than they were when the winning streak began.

What’s happened? Well, they’re playing good baseball. Phenom catcher prospect Adley Rutschman’s hit 74% better than the average MLB hitter over these last 31 games. Shortstop Jorge Mateo, a defensive stalwart all year, has found his swing, clubbing nearly half of his 2022 home runs in less than a third of the games. Outfielder Anthony Santander is averaging an extra-base hit every other day, and recent call-ups Ryan McKenna and Terrin Vavra have outperformed expectations in tiny sample sizes. Career minor leaguer Spenser Watkins has put together five competent starts over the stretch. Rookie Félix Bautista has been downright nasty out of the bullpen.

They’ve also gotten some help. Eighteen of the 31 games, including nine of the ten-game winning streak and six of these eight since trading Mancini, have come against teams nowhere near the playoff chase. The schedule has been advantageous, to date, and that’s going to come back around, with only four teams possessing an easier rest-of-season slate than Baltimore. Still, the Orioles have taken advantage of their opportunity, going 15-3 against the non-contenders to heartily boost an already-strong 8-5 mark against the Yankees, Rays, Twins, and Blue Jays.

What’s going on with the Orioles is improbable, but it’s not impossible. It’s the culmination of all those things that happen when you see a 0.1% chance come out of a simulation model, like that behind FanGraphs‘s playoff probabilities on July 3^rd. For a team in a rebuild, it’s an absolute dream, an oasis in the desert. Does it mean that the future is suddenly stunningly bright? No, although it does help (players overperforming expectations tends to raise reasonable future expectations of those players). What it really means is confined to this season, and what it means for this season is this: For the first time in six years, Orioles baseball means something. And it’s going to keep meaning something for at least another couple weeks.

Hader the Fader

After pitching well in his first two outings since joining San Diego, Josh Hader melted down last night, walking three, hitting a batter, and allowing a single as the Padres coughed up a 4-1 lead against the Giants. Tim Hill came in and got out of the jam, setting up Manny Machado to hit a walk-off home run off of Tyler Rogers (identical twin of Taylor, who was traded from the Padres for Hader), but it’s getting harder and harder to trust Hader, who’s now allowed at least one run in seven of his last thirteen outings, and has allowed three or more in three of those.

Relief pitchers’ successes are fickle and often fleeting, something that partially owes to the nature of the job and partially has to do with what kinds of pitchers become relievers rather than starters. For years, Hader has been one of the rare exceptions. Right now, he might finally be joining the masses.

Other baseball:

• On the Brewers side of the trade, deadline acquisition Matt Bush was on the mound to close out a 5-3 win over the Rays, snapping a 1-6 skid and lifting Milwaukee back within a game of St. Louis, who was smoked by the Rockies. Is the ship righted? Is the Cardinals’ ship leaning again? It’s hard to know, but the leverage in these games is immense.
• While the Rays and Blue Jays lost, the Mariners got a walk-off win, triumphing 1-0 in thirteen innings, which means that after Gerrit Cole and Luis Castillo pitched to a draw over seven and eight innings respectively, each of their bullpens turned in six scoreless frames, with the last three and four (respectively) coming despite the opponent starting with a runner on second base. A wild game. In the land of tough decisions, Seattle optioned Kyle Lewis down to AAA today, giving the 2019 Rookie of the Year (plagued by some bad luck injuries these last two seasons) a chance to reset while opening up space for much-needed production elsewhere. The Blue Jays, Mariners, Rays, Orioles, and the three AL Central teams are all within four games of each other, fighting for four playoff spots. Seattle currently holds one of those four, but only by a game.
• The Astros beat the Rangers after trailing 4-0 early, pulling even with the Yanks atop the American League and staying one game back of the Mets for the second-best record in baseball, something that could be of great consequence when it comes to home-field advantage in October.
• The Twins were spanked by the Dodgers, the White Sox split a doubleheader in Kansas City, and the Guardians won in Detroit on the back of a three-hit, two-double game by Amed Rosario. Where does this leave the Central? Cleveland and Minnesota are tied atop it. Chicago is a game and a half behind, and placed Tim Anderson on the IL yesterday with a torn hand ligament which should keep him out more than a month.
• Finally, Austin Riley did Austin Riley things in Boston, tripling in the first and homering in the third and singling in the eleventh to drive in five as Atlanta won 9-7 over the Red Sox. Elsewhere, Zack Wheeler did Zack Wheeler things in Philadelphia, striking out eight Marlins en route to the Phillies’ sixth straight win. Atlanta and Philadelphia are now five and two games clear, respectively, of the Brewers for NL playoff position, with the Padres on the cut line one back of the Phils. Atlanta is calling up “top prospect” Vaughn Grissom from AA, but top prospect is a relative term, and the Atlanta farm system is pretty dry these days.

Top Free Agents: 2022-23

On the Cubs side of things, after a frustrating but invigorating loss to the Nationals (what a crowd for two very out-of-the-race teams), things like MLB Trade Rumors releasing its latest Free Agent Power Rankings are compelling to the eyes. MLBTR does a good job, generally speaking, and while the difference between third and fourth doesn’t really matter, it’s helpful to see who’s on the list. Here are the ten they ranked, plus their seven “honorable mentions:”

• Aaron Judge
• Trea Turner
• Nolan Arenado
• Carlos Correa
• Xander Bogaerts
• Jacob deGrom
• Dansby Swanson
• Carlos Rodón
• Justin Verlander
• Edwin Díaz
• Brandon Nimmo
• Willson Contreras
• José Abreu
• Josh Bell
• Chris Bassitt
• Nathan Eovaldi
• Andrew Benintendi

Of those seventeen, sixteen would clearly make sense for the Cubs (I would advise against anybody spending enough money to sign Edwin Díaz, who is great but as a relief pitcher is likely to be overpaid relative to his likelihood of success). It’s good to be reminded that Arenado has an opt-out, and it’s interesting how much the NL adding the DH changes things as far as position players go. Four of the five starting pitchers on the list have had physical issues in very recent memory, but Verlander’s age makes him an interesting candidate for a short-term deal, something towards which the Cubs have seemed inclined in recent seasons.

If handicapping the race, I’d say Contreras makes the most sense for the Cubs, given the qualifying offer business and their clear need at every position Contreras can conceivably play. St. Louis letting Arenado walk seems unlikely, so I’d take him off the list. Judge makes a lot of sense even with the Cubs strong in the outfield, with center field still a question mark and the DH spot wide open, and so, by extension, do Nimmo and Benintendi, but the four shortstops are justifiably the focus (one interesting piece of examining the Cubs’ future plans is that Christopher Morel, if he continues to work out, is able to plug the relevant holes in both the infield and outfield, which is convenient). Bell and Abreu are intriguing, and 1B/DH is a big spot for improvement. I don’t believe either can receive a qualifying offer, which will also matter to the Cubs’ brass. Abreu, like Verlander, could be up for a shorter-term deal.

Realistically, the rotation is a bigger need than the offense, especially if Contreras returns (and I’d put that at a greater-than-50% likelihood, even if that puts me in the minority), and that remains the case going forward, as the farm system’s shown some promise on the mound but the Cubs’ top prospects remain almost exclusively hitters. So, in order for the Cubs, I’d line the likelihood up as follows:

• Contreras
• One starting pitcher (Verlander seems most likely, though like Arenado, it may be hard to pry him away from a good situation)
• One of the shortstops (I’ll believe Ken Rosenthal, even if I’m skeptical)
• Abreu/Bell
• Judge
• Nimmo/Benintendi
• Arenado
• Díaz (I think the Cubs have a similar thought process on the bullpen to mine, and they seem confident in their ability to pump out another Effross)

I still think two splashes are the way the Cubs will go, just like last winter, but Contreras might be one of those two.

**

Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:

• 2:20 PM EDT: Washington @ Cubs, Gray vs. Steele (MLB TV/ESPN+)
• 7:05 PM EDT: Toronto @ Baltimore, Berríos vs. Kremer (MLB TV)
• 10:10 PM EDT: Minnesota @ Los Angeles, Gray vs. Pepiot (MLB TV)
• 1:10 PM EDT: Cincinnati @ New York (NL), Zeuch vs. Walker (MLB TV)
• 2:10 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Milwaukee, Springs vs. Woodruff (MLB TV)
• 4:10 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Seattle, Cortes vs. Ray (MLB TV)
• 4:10 PM EDT: San Francisco @ San Diego, Junis vs. Manaea (MLB TV)
• 7:05 PM EDT: Miami @ Philadelphia, Alcantara vs. Syndergaard (MLB TV)
• 7:10 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Boston, Wright vs. Pivetta (MLB TV)
• 7:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Detroit, Civale vs. Hutchison (MLB TV)
• 8:10 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Kansas City, Cueto vs. Bubic (MLB TV)
• 8:10 PM EDT: Texas @ Houston, Otto vs. Verlander (MLB TV)
• 8:40 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Colorado, Quintana vs. Freeland (MLB TV)