I was out to dinner last night, and the Mets game was on a TV behind me. It was one of those restaurants where the kitchen’s behind a wall of glass (kind of like the bagel place in town when I was a kid, except not as fun because bagels are, as you might imagine, very fun to watch be cooked), which meant while I couldn’t see the game, I could see its reflection. Well enough to make out the score. Well enough to watch a mirror-image of that comeback over the Phillies.
It was the gut punch of all gut punches for the Phils, who briefly looked poised to take the NL East last summer, made some aggressive moves in the offseason to amass a dangerous collection of outfield bats, and are now doing things like losing games they led 7-1 going into the ninth inning against the best team in their division. They’re in fourth place, they’re four games under .500, they still have a chance of making the playoffs (a pretty solid one—FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds has it around one-in-three), but the energy around that team has to be so frustrated after last night, and after the season to date, especially with what I’m guessing is a bit of a “that could’ve been us” feeling looking at what Atlanta did over August, September, and October of 2021.
The Mets, on the other hand: Wow.
The New York Mets do not quite have the best record in baseball. They do have the most wins, though, and they’re tied for the most runs scored, and they’ve got a top-five FIP, and they’ve done that last part without Jacob deGrom, who remains sidelined for an indeterminate amount of time. The Mets are making it happen, and in the early going here, they’ve made themselves the favorite over the field in a division that includes the division champions, an up-and-coming Marlins team stocked with some good pitching, and a talent-heavy Phillies roster. They aren’t far behind the Dodgers for expected ultimate NL supremacy, and should that matchup come to pass and little else change, we could be watching deGrom square off with Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer oppose Clayton Kershaw, Chris Bassitt face Julio Urías, and Carlos Carrasco match up with either Andrew Heaney or a loaded relief corps in a Los Angeles bullpen game. What a series that could be.
Those are big names for the Mets on the mound, and they’ve got more working for them in the bullpen, where Chasen Shreve and Drew Smith have been lights out alongside more expected strong performer Edwin Diaz and the ever-filthy Adam Ottavino (who has a 3.30 xERA and 2.79 FIP, so don’t worry too much about that 6.52 ERA, Mets fans). The real story, though, is the bats. The Mets’ bats are on fire. Jeff McNeil is close to the top ten in baseball in fWAR. Francisco Lindor has been 26% better than the average MLB hitter despite having some bad luck after contact. Brandon Nimmo is doing what he’s done for years, when healthy. That’s without getting to offseason additions Mark Canha and Starling Marte. It’s without looking at Pete Alonso or the still-smacking-it J.D. Davis. It’s without looking at Eduardo Escobar’s ability to get on base, or Luis Guillorme’s strong early numbers, or at minor leaguers like Francisco Álvarez, who could fetch one of the biggest prospect-driven hauls in baseball history at the deadline if the Mets decide to push even more chips into the center of the table. The Mets are good. The Mets are very good.
We’ve seen this, though, before. We’ve seen Mets teams that look built to take down the world crumple and wilt and often truly fall apart in physical senses, with injuries a constant plague. Will this year be different?
It’s hard to know. It’s hard to have a good pulse at any time on what, with teamwide injuries trends, is luck and what is something of the team’s doing. It’s also hard to know whether a team has changed something meaningful in their approach, if it is, in fact, a franchise problem. Beyond that, there are questions of whether this is something developmental or an active problem of major leaguer maintenance—the latter would be better news for a team relying on mercenaries in the starting rotation. We just don’t know.
Still, from here out a .500 record would likely be enough to get the Mets a playoff berth. If they won at just an 86-win pace from here, they’d end up with 90 wins, likely enough to win the East, given Atlanta’s early hole. If they could win at a 98-win pace, they’d reach 100 wins, and they’re on a 110-win pace as is, with a tough remaining schedule but nothing outlandish in the context of baseball as a whole.
The Mets’ time is here again. We’ll see what they do while they’re on the clock.
This Week’s Top Performers
Five of the fifteen weekend series started yesterday, and at least two will start tomorrow because of rain this afternoon and evening. So for today’s around-the-league, we’re going to be a little disjointed.
It’s a fun time to play the Reds, and the Brewers made the most of it, averaging more than eleven runs per game in a three-game home sweep of their Cincinnatian guests. Rowdy Tellez homered three times, doubled three times, and drove in ten runs over the series. The Brewers now go to Atlanta while the Reds host Pittsburgh before the two reconvene on Monday in Ohio.
It was a fine series for Atlanta in Queens, but it was close to great. Had the visitors split the doubleheader on Tuesday, they would have walked away with a three-games-to-one series win. Instead, it was a four-game split, with Matt Olson pacing the reigning champs with three extra-base hits on the set. The Mets have begun their aforementioned series in Philadelphia.
Even prior to last night, the week had been tough on the Phils, who lost both games in a two-day series with the Rangers. Texas catcher Jonah Heim homered on Tuesday and reached base in four of six tries over the short series. He now brings his team to the Bronx to take on another hot New York team.
The Yankee win streak finally ended on Wednesday, but they still took a series from the Blue Jays they’ll be happy to have. Jameson Taillon had a nice outing on Tuesday, allowing just one run and walking none over six innings of work. Toronto began four in Cleveland last night.
It’s been a wet week in Cleveland, with doubleheaders Wednesday and now tomorrow to make up for it. They split Wednesday’s with the Padres as former righthander Mike Clevinger made his return. He was fine—four and two thirds innings, three earned runs. The Padres now host Miami for four.
The Marlins are on a little losing streak, dropping all three at home to Arizona from Monday through Wednesday. Daulton Varsho led the way for the Snakes, reaching base three times both Monday and Wednesday. He now goes back to the Southwest, where the Diamondbacks host the Rockies.
Colorado’s still hanging around, their 15-10 record somewhat obscured in the standings due to the overall strength of the NL West. They took two of three at home from the Nationals this week. C.J. Cron was on base in every trip to the plate on Tuesday. The Nationals are down in Anaheim for three.
Shohei Ohtani stole the show for the Angels yesterday, striking out eleven and walking none over seven scoreless innings, then breaking the game open with a two-run single in the eighth off of Tanner Houck. The Red Sox dropped two in the three-game set. They host the White Sox.
The White Sox swept two games with the Cubs, Luis Robert staying hot on Wednesday with a double, a single, and a walk. The Cubs host the Dodgers this weekend—more on that below.
It was only two games, but Los Angeles made them count, sweeping San Francisco in L.A. to push their rivals down past the Rockies and into fourth place. Mookie Betts homered on Wednesday. The Giants now host the Cardinals for four.
In a series split geographically across both ends of Missouri, the Cardinals grabbed two of three from the Royals. Tyler O’Neill homered, tripled, and walked in Wednesday’s 10-0 win in Kansas City. The Royals are visiting the Orioles this weekend.
After losing the first two at home to the Twins, the Orioles rallied over the back half of the week, winning twice to salvage a split and keep their record a not-unsightly 10-16. Cedric Mullins homered in both Baltimore victories. Minnesota hosts the A’s tonight through Sunday.
Bad times continue for Oakland, who lost all three games against the Rays. Manuel Margot hit a triple on Tuesday after doubling twice on Monday. Tampa Bay headed up to Seattle yesterday.
The Mariners lost all three to the Astros, and after losing last night as well they’ve dropped seven of their last eight. Yordan Alvarez reached base twice in all three games, homering both Monday and Tuesday. Houston’s hosting Detroit over the weekend.
After a planned day off Monday and a rainout Tuesday, the Tigers split a doubleheader Wednesday with the Pirates. Jeimer Candelario doubled in each game.
Cubs Bits
The Cubs were rained out this afternoon and will play a split doubleheader against the Dodgers tomorrow. Drew Smyly returns from the bereavement list to start the first game. Daniel Norris kicks off a bullpen game in the second. Monday, the Cubs head to San Diego after a Sunday night game, so it’s not going to be too restful of a turnaround. Could really use two wins out of the three, if we’re going to get greedy.
With Smyly’s return putting the active roster at 27, someone will have to either go on the IL or be sent down after tomorrow night’s game, so keep an eye on that. In other pitching transition news, Wade Miley’s rehab start went as well as anyone could have asked for it to go. Would be great to have him back soon, and with the Cubs’ other option a bullpen game, having a not-very-stretched-out Miley is preferable to some alternatives.
Coming Down to It
College baseball is on the move (the softball bracket will be announced a week from Sunday, to give a feel for where the season is at), and the bubble is forming. Five big series across the country, both on the bubble and off:
Arkansas @ Auburn
Arkansas and Auburn enter the weekend first and second in the SEC West, though Auburn’s in a tie. Baseball America currently has each hosting a Regional, with ground to gain towards Super Regional host status.
Maryland @ Rutgers
A significant Big Ten contest between Rutgers and Maryland? Baseball provides, as the two league leaders go at it in Piscataway.
LSU @ Alabama
Alabama’s trying to play its way off the bubble and into the field. LSU’s looking to get into host territory.
Oregon @ Oregon State
A big one out west for these rivals. The Ducks aren’t far off the pace in the Pac-12, but the Beavers do lead and could pull away this weekend.
Texas @ West Virginia
Finally, in Morgantown, neither Texas nor West Virginia is looking particularly comfortable within the field of 64. Each needs wins, or at the very least to avoid being swept.
We Sleep in May?
Moves involving EvanMiya five-stars over these last 24-ish hours:
- Purdue guard Eric Hunter is headed to Butler.
In other news, Evansville fired Todd Lickliter very late in the going. Strange timing, but Evansville did just hire a new athletic director, so it seems more like a controversial decision than a reaction to any scandal (not saying there is or isn’t a scandal—just didn’t want to erroneously imply one). What a steep fall for that program after the Kentucky win a few years ago.
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We’ll be back with some weekend notes tomorrow since we’ll be online to place hockey bets anyway. Viewing schedule for tonight as follows (second screen in italics):
- 7:00 PM EDT: Hurricanes @ Bruins, Game 3 (TNT)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Heat @ 76ers, Game 3 (ESPN)
- 9:30 PM EDT: Wild @ Blues, Game 3 (TNT)
- 9:40 PM EDT: Marlins @ Padres, Alcantara vs. Darvish (Regional TV)
