It’s Opening Day, the beginning of a joyful week of pomp-filled extra day games and the cautious start of a 162-game slog.
We at The Barking Crow like to categorize teams. We do this in a lot of sports. We like to break teams up into broader classifications and types. It helps us distinguish who we need to pay the most attention. It also helps us conceptualize the championship outlook in a given sport. As this MLB season begins, here’s how we see the baseball landscape:
There are more or less four types of teams in baseball right now. There are World Series contenders, teams for whom the championship is the realistic goal. There are playoff contenders, teams trying to break into October or hold off the pack and get past the finish line. There are playoff hopefuls, teams with a playoff chance but not a good one. Then, there are the rebuilders, whether they’re trying to do that or not. Here’s the rundown.
World Series Contenders: Atlanta, San Diego, New York (AL), Houston, New York (NL)
There’s a dropoff after these five.
Atlanta has the best roster in baseball, cultivated through years of aggressive developmental investment and commitment to locking players up long-term. They’re the FanGraphs favorite, and we trust FanGraphs.
The Padres and Yankees likewise have great rosters, and they have the added benefit of being confidently projected to go all-in at the trade deadline, as is their custom. They’re good right now. They’re going to get better.
The Astros have the challenge of regrouping and going to grab another one, something we haven’t seen done in a long, long time. They’re in a similar place to the Mets, who for all their free agent moves are relying on good injury luck and a lack of regression across the board. Their players may be more expensive than Atlanta’s, but that doesn’t mean they’re better.
Playoff Contenders: Toronto, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Anaheim, Cleveland, Seattle, San Francisco
For each of these teams, missing the playoffs would be a letdown. Odds are, at least four of them will, but each is capable of making the playoffs happen, including even the Angels, who may have fallen apart last year but also dealt with a lot of high-consequence injuries. Not all are likelier than not—FanGraphs puts the 50% line between Philadelphia and Minnesota right now (this list is ordered by FanGraphs playoff probability, and actually the Phillies are right at a coin flip but we just rounded up)—but the playoffs should be the goal for all of these teams. Again: That includes the Angels.
It’s important to note that these teams could certainly win the World Series. Each of them could do it. If you can get yourself to October, you can win the World Series, and all eleven of these franchises could, as we’ve said, get to October.
Playoff Hopefuls: Texas, Boston, Chicago (AL), Miami, Arizona, Chicago (NL), Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Detroit
There are some bad teams on this list, but thanks to the weakness of the Central Divisions and the upside provided by youth, everyone on here has a believable chance. In baseball, the traditional thing is to look for a reason to hope, and we’d encourage that for each of these teams (except for possibly the Cubs, but more on that below).
Texas and Boston are the two who could have been in the next category up, the Playoff Contenders. We had to draw an arbitrary line. There’s no obvious gap.
Rebuilders: Cincinnati, Oakland, Colorado, Washington
Do the Rockies know they don’t have a chance? It’s doubtful. But the other three do. Really, it’s only four teams who should be completely written off at this stage. That’s not bad.
The New Rules
I don’t love getting into the specifics of the new rules, because plenty of others have done that and the point of said rules is to not be too noticeable. They’re supposed to gently speed up the game and gently make the game more watchable, and there’s a good chance they do that. The least gentle among them is the pitch clock—I wish they’d make it nearly invisible, at least on television, but I don’t know a great way to do that—but even it shouldn’t become the focus of games. Ideally, watching baseball, we’ll enjoy the games more, and we won’t even notice these changes are there.
Our Stance on the Cubs
We’re Cubs fans, we’re a Cubs blog. Here’s what we think about the Cubs:
We’re ok with being hopeful. We’re ok with being optimistic. What we aren’t ok with is the Cubs narrative being one of disappointment if this team meets the reasonable expectation, which is to finish with about 75 wins. The roster just isn’t a playoff roster. It could be, if all sorts of people overperform, but that’s not what it is on paper.
Last year, this didn’t bother us. We suspended disbelief and we hoped. This year, though, our fear is that by letting expectations get so high, the Cubs have put themselves in a position where there’ll be pressure to fire Jed Hoyer two years before the roster gets really, really good. Hoyer is playing a long game. We’re worried the Ricketts family isn’t. There’s something to be said for both the short way and the long way, but we just hope there’s alignment. The long way is what’s happened, and we’re two years away from it bearing fruit. Cutting it off this season to try to pivot to the short way wouldn’t really accelerate anything.
First game of the year starts at 1:20 PM local at the Friendly Confines. Marcus Stroman, a solid third starter, against Corbin Burnes, one of the best pitchers in the league. There’s upside. There’s definitely upside. Wins can be stolen, there’s high-upside youth around, and the NL Central isn’t all that good. But please: Nobody lose your mind if this team does exactly what it’s capable of doing.
Other Opening Day Notes
Interesting early start for the Giants out in the Bronx, but I’m not sure how much of an effect that has this early in the year. Spring training is often a daytime sport. deGrom vs. Nola is fun on paper, but I’m curious how long they’ll leave deGrom in there. Scherzer vs. Alcantara is probably the game of the day, and Cease vs. Valdez is probably the game of the evening, and Bieber vs. Castillo is probably the game of the night. There’s good stuff out there. Let’s savor it.
