Albert Pujols is on a tear. Over the last month, the aged superstar has reached base in half his plate appearances. He’s driven in nearly a run per game. He’s averaging a home run more frequently than every third game, and with those last two parts, he’s done it while only pinch-hitting in a third of the games he’s played. wRC+, our preferred comprehensive hitting metric, has him 205% better than the average MLB hitter over the stretch. The closest player to him, Aaron Judge, is only 140% better than the average batter.
With 700 career home runs long appearing out of reach and now suddenly appearing borderline possible (he’s seven away, with only fourteen hit so far this year but eight of those coming this last month), Pujols has managed to wrestle away the limelight from even Judge’s pursuit of Babe Ruth and Roger Maris’s single-season total. The biggest thing happening right now in baseball? It’s Albert Pujols. Who after five years of below-average hitting is blooming one last time.
Those five years were puzzling. They remain puzzling. So do the six before them, really. For a decade, Albert Pujols was the league’s best player by leaps and bounds. Only A-Rod was close, numerically, and this was at the peak of A-Rod’s own illustrious career. Then, Pujols suddenly became merely good, and after a few years of that, he became fine, followed by bad. The downturn started with his final year in St. Louis (and may have been why the Cardinals offered less than the Angels did when he reached free agency). It worsened dramatically in Anaheim. Now, back in St. Louis, he’s back, not to his 2001-2010 levels, but on a per-at-bat basis, somewhere pretty darn close.
Theories have abounded as to what happened with Pujols. He’s been accused (with still no evidence) of steroid usage. His real age was long a target of speculation (again, no evidence here). He started getting hurt a bit more in California, and teams started to rely more heavily on the shift. We don’t really know what happened. But we can look at some numbers.
This last idea—the shift—calls to mind Ryan Howard, and Ryan Howard is a useful figure for Pujols comparison. Howard and Pujols are the same age, born less than two months apart. They both dominated for stretches of the nascent post-steroid era, sluggers in their prime around 2006. Each was accused, without evidence, of PED usage in loud fashion exactly once. Each filed a lawsuit against their accuser and won at least the narrative battle. Howard was more of a one-dimensional tool than Pujols (what a dimension those home runs were, though), but the two were similar. Here are their home runs per plate appearance, their wRC+’s, and their WAR per plate appearance (fWAR/bWAR average) over the length of their careers:
From 2010 through the end of his career (FanGraphs’s data runs back to 2010 on this, and I don’t know of an alternate source), Ryan Howard always faced a shift. 88% of the balls he batted into the field of play over those last seven years of his career came against the shift. For Pujols, that number is only 40%, to date, and it wasn’t until 2014—well into his decline—that he started facing the shift in anywhere close to half his at-bats. Many are convinced the shift killed Howard’s career. For Pujols, it’s a tougher argument to make.
The truth is, both Howard and Pujols aged, and neither aged very well. The conventional wisdom on hitters aging is that they lose about half a WAR per year from their age-27-to-30 baseline, something that gives us the following charts for each, including one where Pujols is placed as two years older than his listed age (if you want three years, move the blue line down another touch):
On each of these, the “xWAR” line is where one would expect each player’s value to lie if they aged as normally projected. Both, consistently, were and have been far under that line. But there are caveats: Each played a position where little value is generated defensively, putting more necessity on offensive production. Each was an outlier of a player, and potentially therefore harder to confidently subject to any standard rule of thumb than, say, an outfielder good enough to stay in the league but never chasing home run titles. Perhaps most importantly, it’s possible we don’t understand aging very well. It’s possible that rule of thumb isn’t very good. Baseball’s statistical boom came right around the time the steroid era was ending, and that pollutes a lot of data sets. Barry Bonds, for example, aged very well. None of these caveats gives us a clear indicator of what’s happened here, but each does offer questions to ask, and those questions lack, at the moment, clear answers. Part of what makes me skeptical on Howard being a victim purely of the shift is the possibility that the xWAR-WAR gap, for him, can be largely explained by him aging a little bit faster. Aging, as it were, on the Pujols track, with not as much value to begin the process and therefore a quicker arrival at the point of unplayability.
We’ll probably never know what caused Pujols to underperform expectations these past ten years. Speculation will persist about his age. Chirps will continue about PED’s (though it’s hard to see any sort of convincing case for that speculation, given how good he continued to be after drug testing began). It’s possible Anaheim was a bad fit for him, or that the little physical ailments added up to something large, or that an inflection point was reached where pitchers suddenly had a way to get him out. Right now, though, he’s back. At least for a month. And what a month it has been.
Who Is Javier Assad?
The Cubs are starting rookie Javier Assad in the first game of today’s doubleheader, transferring Jason Heyward to the 60-day IL to make 40-man roster space, optioning Kervin Castro to AAA, and adding reliever Nicholas Padilla as today’s 27th man. Assad, a 25-year-old righty, is mostly a non-prospect, but he had a 3.91 FIP at AA this year in roughly seventy innings, and he has a 3.70 FIP at AAA in roughly 35, and his ERA at both has been under 3.00, so rather than throw Caleb Kilian back into the fire, it’s Assad (Luke Farrell is expected to start tomorrow—I’d guess Kyle Hendricks goes on the 60-day IL in that move).
Assad, again, is something of a non-prospect. Back in December of 2018, coming off his age-20 season, he drew an honorable mention in FanGraphs’s farm system report on the Cubs, but that was the last time we saw him. His numbers, though, are good. Prior to 2020, his worst FIP over a minor league season was 4.26, and while 2021 went poorly for the guy, he’s bounced back with more strikeouts, fewer walks, and better overall results this year.
With all these young guys going up and down, it’s easy to get hopeful that any given debut is something special, and it’s easy to wear yourself out doing that. Sure, Assad could turn into a productive guy. But he’s no lock to survive the offseason on the 40-man roster. Hopefully today goes well and I look silly for typing that. I mean, shit, Adrian Sampson’s starting Game 2 today.
Other Cubs news:
- Brennen Davis is going up to South Bend, continuing to rehab from his back injury. The word is that he’s expected to be back at AAA soon to end the season. That’s better than we were hoping even a few weeks ago. Great to see.
- Adbert Alzolay pitched for the Cubs’ Rookie League team, which is also good injury news for the future. It’s easy to think of Alzolay as a better prospect than he was/is, but contributing effectively to an MLB rotation is within this guy’s range of possibilities. The more options, the better.
- Could Drew Smyly get a qualifying offer? No. He’s going to be a straight-up free agent. There’s no world where his projection is close to 2.2 WAR for next year, which is roughly what it takes to justify that kind of thing. Ditto Wade Miley, which is too bad. If he’d matched his 2021, he’d have been worth it and the Cubs could’ve gotten a nice little extra draft pick were he to walk.
- Scott Effross has a shoulder strain and is now on the IL for the Yankees. He’s going to be shut down for at least a week. Unclear if he’ll need any rehab assignment after that (and I’m unsure when exactly the minor league season ends). Anyway, always a good idea to trade relief pitchers if you aren’t going to make the playoffs. Or if it’s the offseason, maybe? Or maybe even if you’re going to make the playoffs? I need to do some digging again on relief pitcher consistency.
Around baseball:
AL East
The Yankees got a win last night, jumping on Max Scherzer (which consisted of scoring four over six and two-thirds, such is “jumping on” when it comes to Max Scherzer) and getting a strong outing out of Domingo Germán, who’s been more and more productive since a rough season debut against the Astros back in July. The Yankees bet on him a little when they decided to trade Jordan Montgomery (more on him in a minute) at the deadline. So far, it’s going well. 2.93 FIP across 22 post-deadline innings.
The Rays also won, holding off the Angels to move half a game up as the AL’s top Wild Card, still sitting eight games back of New York.
AL Wild Card, Central
Just behind the Rays, Seattle and Toronto were idle, but a little further back the Twins and White Sox missed opportunities to gain ground, both on those two and idle Cleveland.
The Twins fell 2-1 to the Rangers, their third straight defeat by Texas and one full of opportunities to score early off of rookie Cole Ragans. In three of Ragans’s four innings, Minnesota had a runner in scoring position with one out. They only scored once. Making matters worse, Byron Buxton left the game with a hip injury that’s evidently been nagging him but blew up a little pain-wise last night.
The White Sox fell 6-4 to the Royals, with a Luis Robert double unluckily bouncing over the wall to keep AJ Pollock at third in the sixth and Joe Kelly hitting back-to-back batters with pitches in the eighth before walking in the eventual winning run.
With the losses, Minnesota is now behind Baltimore, three back of Toronto and Seattle. Chicago is four back. The gaps are two and three, respectively, behind Cleveland in the division.
The Red Sox have placed Nathan Eovaldi and Eric Hosmer on the IL, which is unsurprising for Eovaldi but still disappointing and is a little surprising for Hosmer, though I may have just missed the build-up there. More tough luck for Boston this year, though if your franchise has won the World Series in four of its last ten postseason appearances, you’re doing just fine on the luck front. They sit six back of Toronto and Seattle.
AL West
Hey, we don’t talk about these guys much! Always just put the Mariners in the Wild Card section and deal with the Astros wherever they’re playing.
Arte Moreno and the Angels have effectively announced that Arte Moreno is going to sell the Angels. A franchise that just hasn’t been working will get an overhaul of some sort. But the sale, I’d assume based on the Nationals timing, is probably going to wait until next offseason. And given how good Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout are, maybe they’ll make the playoffs next year. Seriously. They could. If you have a foundation that good, you need fewer lottery tickets to hit, especially in the age of three Wild Cards.
NL East
While the Mets lost in the Bronx, Philadelphia and Atlanta both won in Pennsylvania, the former besting the Reds at home and the latter taking down the Pirates. Atlanta remains within reach of New York, Philadelphia moves back ahead of San Diego by percentage points.
NL Central
The Cardinals beat the Cubs, 1-0, Jordan Montgomery throwing a complete game, one-hit shutout and Albert Pujols putting one barely out in left field off of Drew Smyly to give the club its seventh straight victory. No ground was gained, though, as Eric Lauer and the Brewers’ bullpen worked around trouble in Los Angeles, shutting out the Dodgers as Luis Urías’s fourth-inning homer proved decisive, bolstered by ninth-inning insurance runs courtesy of doubles by Willy Adames and Christian Yelich and a home run by Keston Hiura.
Milwaukee’s just a game and a half behind the Padres in the Wild Card chase, and they’re now up 3-2 against the Dodgers in the last eight days, with two more games down there still to come. After this? No games against playoff contenders until September 13th. Five games is a lot, and the Cardinals are hot, but the Brewers’ shot at a division crown isn’t much worse than Atlanta’s. However. Aaron Ashby’s going on the IL. Shoulder inflammation.
NL West
The Dodgers extended Max Muncy, turning their $13M team option for next year into a guaranteed $13.5M salary with a $10M team option for 2024. The deal reportedly has some incentives which could increase it by as much as $4M if he’s an everyday player through the year. Probably a good deal all around. Unusual timing, though.
Nick Saban Isn’t Going Anywhere
I know, I know. “No, duh.” This isn’t about Alabama being good again this year, though. This is about Alabama extending their head football coach through the end of the decade. Barring early retirement or buyout, the man will be coaching Alabama until he is 78 years old. Joe Paterno, for reference, was 84 when he was fired.
Will Saban ever lose his fastball? That’s probably the most important question in all of college sports right now. Although maybe a better version of it is: Can Saban’s fastball keep up with everyone else’s? Others will improve. He can’t just keep being the best. He has to keep improving to continue to have success. And as of last January, he’s not on the top perch right now. Kirby Smart is.
Kevin Durant Isn’t Going Anywhere
The Nets have announced that after GM Sean Marks, head coach Steve Nash, and owners Joe and Clara Wu Tsai met with Kevin Durant and his manager, Rich Kleiman, in Los Angeles yesterday, the franchise and Durant “have agreed to move forward with our partnership.”
For a year, we assume.
Because if a four-year contract didn’t matter to Durant, what does a decision made over dinner in L.A.?
NASCAR’s Playoff Problem
NASCAR has a concussion problem, and not the kind the NFL had. This is one where NASCAR is taking concussions seriously, Kurt Busch can’t get cleared to race, and this Saturday night, the playoff field is going to be set.
Kurt Busch is locked into the playoff field by rule, having won a race early in the year and having received a medical waiver from NASCAR to clear him from the requirement to drive in every race (this is how it works, by design). It sounds like the only way someone would get into the field in his place (should he continue to not be cleared to race) would be for him to decline the invitation, but then there’s a messy situation where—because NASCAR awards points to drivers, by driver, but also to owners, by car—there could be a slightly different playoff field for drivers than there is for owners/cars. There’s also some historic precedent for NASCAR reacting to a situation their rules don’t dictate the way they like by simply making a different decision, which in this case would be putting somebody else into the playoffs in Busch’s place.
This is generally a bad look if you’re the governing body of a sport. You want your rules to be clear enough that they do not become the story. And yet motorsports, again and again, has these issues with its rules not covering scenarios that happen on the track. Just ask F1 fans about the historic significance of Michael Masi.
How do you fix this? Honestly, if I was in charge I’d get a bunch of people who know the sport well to sit in a room for a week and play out seasons Dungeons & Dragons-style. Suggest every wild scenario you can think of, then make a rule that handles that. And on occasions like the Masi ones? Or with rain delays? Look back at every race that’s been affected in that realm and make rules that apply to all of them.
You need to have good rules.
**
Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
- 2:20 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Cubs – Game 1, Wainwright vs. Assad (MLB TV)
- 8:05 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Cubs – Game 2, Woodford vs. Sampson (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ New York (AL), Walker vs. Montas (TBS)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Pittsburgh, Fried vs. Brubaker (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Baltimore, Cease vs. Voth (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Cincinnati @ Philadelphia, Lodolo vs. Suárez (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Anaheim @ Tampa Bay, Suarez vs. Kluber (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Detroit, Rodón vs. Hutchison (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Toronto @ Boston, Stripling vs. Winckowski (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Minnesota @ Houston, Sanchez vs. Verlander (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: Cleveland @ San Diego, Civale vs. Clevinger (MLB TV)
- 10:10 PM EDT: Washington @ Seattle, Fedde vs. Ray (MLB TV)
- 10:10 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ Los Angeles, Burnes vs. Gonsolin (MLB TV/ESPN+)
