Of all the major American sports’ drafts, the NBA’s and the NFL’s are the most similar, something that has as much to do with the popularity of the college game in those sports as it does the professional system into which the best college athletes rise. The insignificance of the MLB Draft is undoubtedly partly an effect of the uncertainty and the time lapse waiting between drafted prospects and the big leagues, but it’s also partly an effect of college baseball not being a mainstream sport. College football and college basketball are mainstream. Household names are drafted each year out of both, and enough players are drafted from the most prominently followed college programs (the 25 or 40 most followed, to put a number on this) that the draft has comparable content value for college and professional fans. It’s the collision between the two sides of each sport—the graduation for players college fans have often grown to love, and the start of the story for players professional fans now look to as instruments of the future.
It’s difficult in football to remain a fan of a player. There are difficulties in basketball—I didn’t follow much of Talen Horton-Tucker’s time with the South Bay Lakers—but basketball players are all so visible (there’s no offensive line in basketball, almost all contributions show up on the stat sheet), and their shelf life as professionals is longer in a lot of cases than those of visible football stars, with a longer, daily season also giving NBA players more chances to capture a moment than their NFL counterparts. There’s also the element in which the NBA is a league conducive to following players and the NFL is a league where it’s hard to not solely be attached to teams. I’d guess few Boston College fans are now pivoting from wishing well on the Falcons to wishing well on the Colts. A lot of Arizona State fans grew a bigger heart for the Sixers when James Harden was traded for Ben Simmons. Each a generational talent within their program, each immensely prominent within their own sport, a rather distinct difference between the two in terms of ease of individual-player fanhood.
So, with the NFL Draft tonight, we’ll keep an eye on guys from our schools, and we’ll wish them well, but in the vast majority of cases, they will then vanish. Into the professional ranks, so often a grand Plinko board when viewed from the outside.
Cyclones in the Draft
There are seven Iowa Staters listed on PFF’s current big board. Of those, it would only be a mild surprise if none were drafted tonight, with none likely to be selected in tomorrow’s second and third rounds. We’re more a Saturday program at this moment in time. The seven, with their projected round from NFL Mock Draft Database, a website I haven’t looked at closely but seems to be accomplishing the exact thing I’m looking for:
Breece Hall – First Round
Hall’s pegged by many to be picked by the Bills 25th overall. This would be, of course, a great situation. Getting to play within the Josh Allen offense? Sign our guy up for that, please.
Charlie Kolar – Fourth Round
A thing about tight ends is that good ones in college look absolutely dominant. In the pros, not that many actually turn out to be good. It’s relatively easy to have a moment as a tight end, compared to other positions, and Kolar’s skillset being stronger as a receiver than a blocker helps that cause, but it doesn’t necessarily help him establish himself as a pro.
Eyioma Uwazurike – Fifth Round
See? Saturday program. Uwazurike’s a good defensive tackle, and will hopefully be able to stick somewhere, but we’re already into the uphill battles.
Mike Rose – Sixth Round
The ol’ heart and soul. Unclear how much all those intangibles can pull off once you’re out of the Big 12, but if Rose does stick, he’ll be a color commentator favorite, so that’s fun.
Brock Purdy – Undrafted
Purdy should latch onto a practice squad somewhere, right? Would be fun if he could bounce around as a backup, but he might be better off working in ISU’s development office.
Chase Allen – Undrafted
Often a very cool dude (I forgot all about him getting hit by that car), but definitely an uphill battle. Like Rose, you can see it, but like Rose, a vote of confidence is a vote more in his mental gifts than his physical prowess.
Andrew Mevis – Undrafted
Kickers are funny because they can have a twenty-year career and they can never make the league and it’s very difficult to know which it’ll be. High visibility position, for whatever that’s worth.
What Will the Packers Do Tonight?
We’re hitting a whole gauntlet of Des Moines sports interests today, including the awkward Packers/Cubs combo.
The Packers, barring a trade or trades, select 22nd and 28th tonight. You can, of course, get a lot at those slots.
Right now, that draft consensus listed above has Brian Gutekunst taking Treylon Burks 22nd and Daxton Hill 28th.
Burks, the receiver out of Arkansas, has been pointed towards the Packers for a long time. He’d be a good pickup, he’d be a conventional play, he’d be a good guy to give a lot of targets.
Hill, a safety out of Michigan, would be more of a depth pickup than a filler for an immediately demanding hole, but the third safety isn’t insignificant, and if the Packers do take a safety in the first round, you’d expect the expectation to be that he’ll one day be a guy counted upon. He played the slot a lot in college, where he helped with a whole lot of run-stuffing in the Big Ten.
Other names popping up in multiple mock drafts:
- Devin Lloyd (LB, Utah) – Has gotten a lot of hype for intangibles, was the key of an at-times vicious Utah defense. Talented man who’d be enough of a steal that, if available, he might be worth taking ahead of Burks at 22.
- George Karlaftis (DE, Purdue) – You want your first-round picks to contribute right away, in most cases, and Karlaftis certainly could. Like Lloyd, Karlaftis is a guy who deserves a long look if he’s available. “Best player available” kind of pick, potentially.
- Jahan Dotson (WR, Penn State) – A speed threat deep, the undersized-but-shifty wideout feels less all-purpose than Burks, but looks set to fill the role he’ll fill well.
- Nakobe Dean (LB, Georgia) – Another good linebacker, prognosticators seem a little split on Dean, but that could be more a product of how close the talent is this far into the draft than a reflection of uncertainty.
- Devonte Wyatt (DL, Georgia) – Awesome defensive tackle. Lot of fun in there. Similar to Lloyd and Karlaftis in that he might not last into the 20’s.
- Quay Walker (LB, Georgia) – Yet another UGA defender, gets a lot of love for his tackling in particular, which can be overweighted by fans because it’s so visible but is still a big deal.
We’ll see. Very possible a trade happens and blows this all up, very possible Gutekunst goes in at least a semi-unexpected direction, or that enough others do that his decision is a different one from what we expect.
Tyrese Hunter Is Indeed Getting Paid
I am not actively listening to this interview, but Chris Williams of Cyclone Fanatic is, and Jamie Pollard is live on the Murph & Andy Show as I write this talking NIL, collectives, etc., with this the defining quote so far:
Again, I’m not actively listening to this, and I’m guessing there’ll be a writeup somewhere which we’ll visit tomorrow if it’s noteworthy beyond this, but the simplest interpretation of this quote is that Hunter is working with an agency focusing on NIL, and the agency is already paying him, before the money comes in (as agencies have done for years but can now do much more directly and without as much of a lag, which simplifies things, gets money to more athletes, and probably gets athletes more money in total because there’s less risk involved).
Other bits filtering out from those listening:
- Iowa State is, as we’d hope, working to make NIL payments easier between individuals/collectives and players. Specifically, Pollard evidently said ISU’s working on constructing a marketplace in which the two parties can work directly with one another to hammer out deals.
- In a sentiment echoed elsewhere, Pollard seems to view this whole situation as a bit off the rails. Which it absolutely is, by the way. This is a new market, and a very free market, and it’s obviously very chaotic. The question is whether the solution to that problem is regulation or time. Pollard and others inside the industry seem intent on getting the thing regulated, and the NCAA being the organization that does that. As you can probably guess if you read these notes yesterday, The Barking Crow disagrees. This will smooth itself out. All markets do. Which isn’t to say regulation can’t be a good thing, but is to say that I hope college sports doesn’t accidentally misregulate itself into additional unnecessary problems. Give it some time. It’s ok for it to be chaotic for a few cycles.
Portal Bits
Notes from the men’s basketball transfer process, with a national scope:
- Kevin McCullar, out of Texas Tech, is in the transfer portal, giving Tech the second and third-ranked EvanMiya outgoing transfers. McCullar’s also looking at the NBA Draft. Big loss for Tech either way, provided he leaves, which isn’t necessarily guaranteed, I don’t think. If he does leave, Tech might reel a little, and it might even be fair to ask a few questions about what happened there in Lubbock.
- Landers Nolley committed to Cincinnati, giving Cincinnati its first EvanMiya five-star after grabbing two four-stars in Rob Phinisee and Kalu Ezikpe. Wes Miller’s also got the 29th-ranked high school class coming in, per 247.
- And in our third piece of Big 12 transfer news (still getting used to Cincinnati), Umoja Gibson, Oklahoma guard with a sweet stroke, is into the portal.
Big 12 Timing
Reports came out yesterday that all four incoming Big 12 programs—BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF—will join the league at the same time, with that same time being the 2023-24 academic year. That makes this coming season the last year of the current Big 12, and at the moment has us pointed at one year of a 14-team Big 12 that absolutely rocks (most seem to think Texas and OU are leaving after 2023-24). If that year is fun enough, I say we forgive Texas. I’ve already forgiven Oklahoma. They weren’t the ones holding up a Big 12 Network and expansion to twelve teams five and ten years ago, I don’t think (if they were, I unforgive them).
The Cubs Won!
Man, was last night almost brutal. The bullpen was so damn good for so damn long, and even when Mychal Givens blinked, it came in the form of a walk after two strikeouts and two well-placed singles. Having lost six of seven but gotten good relief pitching on the whole over the stretch, losing that way would have been about as painful as it could get, but instead, the bullpen just did even more. David Robertson slammed the door, and Rowan Wick managed a scoreless tenth even with the Manfred Man on second base to start things off.
Credit, of course, to Willson Contreras for smoking the ball to bring home Ian Happ in the top of the tenth. Credit as well to Patrick Wisdom, whose home run offered relief in a trying spot—leading by one in extras in the Manfred Man era. But it was the bullpen which won the game, with Keegan Thompson leading the charge once again (gave up his first earned run, but didn’t allow an extra base hit).
It was heartening to see David Ross turn as early and as aggressively to his relievers as he did. Mark Leiter Jr. was in trouble, Ross did not give things a chance to go too badly, leaning on his top arms for innings three through ten. In a season like this one, you have to manage to win, and with the bullpen the Cubs have, managing to win is a lot easier than it is for teams with lesser staffs. Is the ‘pen really this good? The jury’s still out—FanGraphs’s Depth Charts has it only middle-of-the-road on paper—but it’s second in fWAR, sixth in WPA, and it has six qualified pitchers with an xERA below 2.50, which is absurd. Thompson, Robertson, Givens, Wick, Chris Martin, and Scott Effross. More than six innings, xERA below 2.50. Very good.
The downside to managing to win is that you’re also managing to lose other games, in a sense, and while Wick, Effross, and Martin should all be available tonight, it’d be a big surprise to see Thompson or Givens and a small surprise to see Robertson, putting a lot of pressure on Drew Smyly to match frames with not only Kyle Wright, but Atlanta’s own relief corps. Tough situation, but it’s an upside game—win, you’ve won a series you had little business winning; lose, you didn’t get swept in a series you had little business winning. Ronald Acuña Jr. returns tonight, adding a layer of fun and also a level of difficulty.
***
Viewing schedule today, second screen contenders in italics:
- 12:35 PM EDT: Brewers @ Pirates (Regional TV) – Peralta vs. Quintana
- 2:10 PM EDT: Mariners @ Rays (Regional TV) – Flexen vs. Springs
- 4:07 PM EDT: Guardians @ Angels (Regional TV) – Quantrill vs. Detmers
- 7:00 PM EDT: 76ers @ Raptors (NBA TV)
- 7:20 PM EDT: Cubs @ Atlanta (MLB Network, Regional TV) – Smyly vs. Wright
- 7:30 PM EDT: Suns @ Pelicans (TNT)
- 8:00 PM EDT: NFL Draft (ABC and evidently three other channels, which really makes me want to not turn this on at any point in the evening, because clearly the NFL is getting way too much attention if the market for this behavior exists)
- 10:00 PM EDT: Mavericks @ Jazz (TNT)
