The Cubs have had a patient offseason. They made a few deals, they invested a little bit in the long term, they patched up some short-term holes but left others gaping. They kept their rich-soiled farm system intact, and they appear content to let it ripen, even if that takes another two or three years.
So why are they letting expectations get away from them like this?
Last week, Jeff Passan gave the Cubs “The Sneaky-Big Step Forward Award” in a big free agency wrap-up column over at ESPN. Today, The Athletic has either a fluff piece or a hoodwinked piece headlined, “The Cubs bought a bit of credibility with an offseason that signaled some urgency.” This was urgent? Locking down a middle infielder with just better than a league-average bat who’ll turn 30 after the first year of his contract? Signing a platoon-ish center fielder who posted a .265 OBP in the better of his last two seasons? Taking the Yankees’ fifth starter and putting him in position to potentially be the Cubs ace?
I don’t dislike what the Cubs are doing. I think Jed Hoyer’s a smart guy doing smart things. But the narrative’s getting away from the front office. At the moment, as far as I can tell, the Cubs making the necessary eleven-win jump to get to 85 victories on the season (against a tougher schedule, now that their share of games against the NL Central is lessened) relies on Christopher Morel replicating last year’s offensive numbers while shielding himself from defensive lapses, Cody Bellinger and Eric Hosmer each putting up their best slash line in three years, Yan Gomes taking a step forward as a 35-year-old starting catcher, and the rotation holding it together despite having no pitcher on the staff who’s a lock to finish with a sub-4.00 ERA. Maybe it’s going to work. FanGraphs is actually fairly high on the team, at least relative to last year’s final numbers. But the biggest boost to the Cubs’ projected 2023 team fWAR seems to come from no longer rostering most of the 22 players who posted a negative fWAR in 2022, many of whom weren’t exactly expected to be below replacement level at this time last year.
If you want to make a case that this team will be better through addition by subtraction, fine. But don’t start hyping up the Cubs as some rousing offseason success story. Even FanGraphs, which has the Cubs’ projected WAR ten wins better than last year’s tally, has the roster more than six wins worse than that of the Brewers right now. And it doesn’t have the Brewers in the projected playoff field.
The More Complicated the Decision, the Longer It Takes
First, thank you to ProFootballRumors, which cleared up that the Packers need to decide on Jordan Love’s 2024 option by May. That isn’t an option for this fall, and they could decline it and keep him or accept it and trade him or any other interation of decline/accept and bench/start/trade, but it’s relevant, the thought being that if the Packers want to stick with Rodgers, it may be time to give Love his opportunity elsewhere and find a new QB–in–waiting. That isn’t the meat of this, though. The meat of this is that if the bigger decision ends up being to trade Rodgers, it’s going to take longer than it’ll take if the decision is to keep him or the decision is that he retires.
Why?
They have to find another team, that team probably has to work out a contract restructure with Rodgers, that team and the Packers have to negotiate the trade, this process probably has to go on with a few suitors to figure out his market. It’s more of a process than the will–he–or–won’t–he we’re used to from these last two offseasons.
Iowa State Survives *and* Thrives
As my dad texted last night after the game ended, “Nowell is really good.”
Holy cow, is he ever.
I underestimated Kansas State. I saw the close wins and I saw the home wins and I saw the timing of them boat racing Texas and I thought with Iowa State focused, the Cyclones would roll.
The Cyclones did win.
But they did not roll.
Markquis Nowell might not be the Big 12 Player of the Year, but he is so darn good on the basketball court. He was everywhere. He was everywhere on both ends. He turned the ball over and missed ten shots inside the arc and still graded out with a 116 offensive rating on KenPom (100 is average). That is an absurd performance.
For ISU, it’s incredible to be in this position, but they need to rest Caleb Grill on Saturday. It’s ok to lose to Mizzou. It probably won’t change your eventual seed line. You need Grill to chase this Big 12 title, and he did great in his physically limited state last night, but you need him as close to one hundred percent as you can get him. Go get him there.
Including tiebreakers, Iowa State now leads the Big 12, sitting alongside Texas and K-State at 6-2 but having beaten them both. They did win both those games in Ames, but to look a little deeper, Texas has yet to play Kansas and K-State got Kansas at home, and struggling though they may be, Kansas is still the best team in this league. Each of the tied teams has played four games at home and four on the road. Iowa State’s gotten to host the two others, but they’ve already played at both Kansas and TCU. I don’t think ISU’s in any spectacular position schedule-wise, but it isn’t a bad one, and they’re catching the Big 12/SEC Challenge at a good time. You don’t need to beat Mizzou to win the Big 12. Maybe it’s tempting fate to treat the game that way, but sometimes you have to tempt fate. Go chase that ring.
(Also, Omaha Biliew is a McDonald’s All-American. Great day all around.)
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What’s happening today and tonight:
College Basketball (big game)
- 6:30 PM EST: Xavier @ UConn (FS1)
College Basketball (good games)
- 7:00 PM EST: West Virginia @ Texas Tech (ESPNU)
- 9:00 PM EST: Texas A&M @ Auburn (ESPN2)
- 11:00 PM EST: Utah State @ San Diego State (CBSSN)
College Basketball (interesting games)
- 7:00 PM EST: Houston @ UCF (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: Georgia @ Tennessee (SECN)
- 8:30 PM EST: Butler @ Providence (FS1)
- 9:00 PM EST: Mississippi State @ Alabama (SECN)
- 9:00 PM EST: Indiana @ Minnesota (BTN)
NBA (best game)
- 8:00 PM EST: Denver @ Milwaukee (League Pass)
NHL (best game)
- 7:00 PM EST: NY Rangers @ Toronto (TNT)
League Cup
- 3:00 PM EST: Manchester United @ Nottingham Forest – 1st Leg (ESPN+)
Australian Open
- 3:30 AM EST: Azarenka vs. Rybakina (ESPN)
- 5:00 AM EST: Sabalenka vs. Linette (ESPN)
