I really need to start keeping a notes note. I’m going to miss something for sure. Let’s go…college football games, college football offseason, college basketball games, then baseball. I’ll mix Iowa State into the relevant places, I guess. Goodness.
The College Football Playoff Picture
I wrote a lot about this earlier today, but the short version of where we’re at with the playoff after Michigan beat Ohio State, Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma, and Alabama almost lost to Auburn is that there are six teams left, and it’s hard to find scenarios where we dip beyond those six. Georgia, Alabama, and Michigan are all in with wins. Cincinnati’s probably in with a win. Oklahoma State’s probably in with a win. Notre Dame’s probably on standby. But you can’t count a potential 11-2 Alabama out just yet, especially since the committee’s told to take the four best teams, and Alabama would be favored over pretty much anybody in the country not named Georgia or Ohio State. (Speaking of which…just kidding. I think.)
The College Football Coaching Carousel
Wow. So, on Friday we knew there were three big jobs available: USC, Florida, and LSU. Florida hired Billy Napier from Louisiana-Lafayette, which made a lot of sense. USC lured Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma, opening us back up to two big jobs available. And speaking of big jobs, Notre Dame is evidently now available as well, because LSU just went and nabbed Brian Kelly, according to Yahoo’s Pete Thamel.
This sets a lot of things in motion. Notre Dame and Oklahoma are both in pretty good shape at the moment as programs, though Notre Dame clearly remembers their two decades in the desert, and Oklahoma has Nebraska as a loud reminder of what can happen to a premier program.
I never appreciated Oklahoma’s ability to hold onto coaches, and I’m wondering now, looking at it, whether part of why they’ve always been so good is that they’ve managed to hand things off smoothly. This is not going to be a smooth handoff, and with the Sooners entering the SEC, there’s a real chance they go the way of the dodo. Or the Cornhusker.
For Notre Dame, the memories of the desert, again, are fresh. But Kelly got some rather fundamental things to change with the football program, abandoning a fair share of traditions in favor of things that seemed to beget winning. Kelly got his jumbotron. Kelly got his artificial turf. Kelly got the Irish to a stage where they’ve lost only nine times in these last five seasons, a number that will peak at ten. That’s something Lou Holtz did. It’s something Ara Parseighian did. It’s something Frank Leahy did. It’s something Knute Rockne did. Kelly never peaked as high as those four coaches in South Bend, but he coached in so much tougher of an era, especially for a school like Notre Dame, where it’s harder to win in the current game than it is at, well, LSU (as Ed Orgeron showed). Does LSU have a lower floor under Kelly than Notre Dame did? Yes. But Notre Dame, Kelly seems to rightly think, has a lower ceiling.
If pressed, I’d say Notre Dame’s the better immediate job, partially because the schedule gives you some space. If you can hold on to a decent share of the roster and a decent share of recruits (and bring some of your own), you can probably survive a couple years making decent, not-great bowls before you have to turn up the production. You’re playing five games a year against the ACC, after all, and one a year against Navy, and generally one buy game, and while none of those but the buy games are guaranteed wins (or close to it), you’re going to come out of those with a good shot at being good. Next year’s schedule is rough—the Irish open at Ohio State, go to UNC in September, play BYU in Las Vegas, host Clemson, and visit a potentially resurgent-via-grad-transfers USC—but barring seismic changes in the college football landscape, it starts calming down again in 2024 and 2025. Get there, make a few 12-team playoffs, and you’re set.
With Oklahoma, it’s harder, because the SEC can eat schools alive. Look at Tennessee—and they play in the East. Oklahoma might not play in the West as we know it, but they’re going to be going against great football teams multiple times a year, and that’s almost guaranteed. There’s no such guarantee with Notre Dame (as we’ve seen this season).
Who will each hire? I won’t profess to know. A friend mentioned that Luke Fickell may want to coach Cincinnati through the Playoff, which could keep him off the board this cycle. The word on Matt Campbell (here’s the Iowa State tie-in) has always been that he wants a Midwest job, and Notre Dame’s Midwestern while Oklahoma isn’t exactly not Midwestern (also, I don’t think anyone ever imagined Oklahoma would come available to a Matt Campbell in the next ten years). The problem is that we don’t know if Campbell can recruit with the big boys, and that Campbell’s breakthrough year wasn’t that much of a breakthrough. Urban Meyer’s name will come up with Notre Dame, but would Notre Dame really want to risk hiring a guy like this who has some weird health issues? Lane Kiffin’s an interesting name for Oklahoma. Josh Heupel’s getting a lot of Oklahoma buzz, it seems. Brent Venables is intriguing. But man. It’s hard to get hires right. Ask Texas. Ask Nebraska. Ask…well, ask Notre Dame.
What Does This Mean for Iowa State?
First off, nice win on Friday. Second off…I don’t know. If Notre Dame or Oklahoma takes Campbell, which doesn’t sound immediately likely but does seem clearly plausible, it’s terrifying for the future. And as the Brian Kelly/LSU news reminded us, these things can happen, to our vantage point, lightning-fast.
I initially wrote off Virginia Tech, but the more I think about it, the more curious I get about Campbell as a fit there. It isn’t in the Midwest, but it might actually be closer to his roots in Ohio than Ames is, and the ACC isn’t that much harder a league to win than the Big 12. It certainly has a higher ceiling than Iowa State. But is it higher enough?
Duke Is Good
Basketball has been happening, and it began Friday night with a game that might have been even better than UCLA/Villanova. Duke edged Gonzaga in Las Vegas in front of a packed crowd that was into it. Most strikingly, it wasn’t Paolo Banchero leading the way. Banchero did lead the Blue Devils in scoring, but he spent a lot of the game on the bench, while Mark Williams scored seventeen on perfect shooting inside the arc, blocked six shots, and grabbed nine rebounds. This is not last year’s Duke. That is demonstrably clear.
Gonzaga, of course, is also good, and you could make a sincere argument that it’ll be nice for them to not have the undefeated/best-team-ever pressure for a change. We don’t think anyone’s actually as good as them (it was a great game by Duke and a mediocre game by Gonzaga, or so says KenPom), but they’ve been beaten, and that’s not nothing. Especially for Duke.
Overall, if you’re trying to figure out what this means, I’d offer that Duke’s unbeaten, Purdue’s unbeaten, Baylor’s unbeaten, and Gonzaga’s only lost to Duke. Almost a month into the season, that’s your best summation of the top teams, accounting for both what they’ve done and what they’re expected to do.
The ACC Is Bad
I’ll circle around to Iowa State, but with the last couple days a little quieter (unless I’ve missed something), the focus shifts to the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, where the ACC entered as a KenPom underdog in twelve of the fourteen games. The way probability works, they’re expected to win more than two, but it could be a bloodbath. An utter bloodbath. And one of their better chances—Virginia hosting Iowa—already didn’t go their way tonight, with Iowa escaping with a win after a twenty-point collapse. Expect that to be the storyline these next few days on the hardwood.
Is Iowa State Good?
Iowa State is undefeated, ranked in the AP Poll, and has yet to beat a team by fewer than eight points. Two of those wins are against KenPom top-35 teams, which is cleanly tournament territory. They won those games on neutral courts. This is wild.
Now, Iowa State fans shouldn’t get too excited just yet. The Cyclones are 74th in KenPom and project to end the season 19-14, or somewhere thereabouts, which is probably outside of tournament territory. But it’s way higher than it was. Last week at this time we were talking about what it would take to get up to a .500 overall projection. They’ve passed that by leaps and bounds.
Next game Wednesday against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, then Creighton in Omaha on Saturday before Iowa comes to Ames next Thursday. Big stretch ahead.
Baseball Is Happening
Holy shit. First off, the lockout doesn’t start until Wednesday night, right? Because things are happening fast. Here’s everything that’s happened since Friday, when we last spoke:
- The Mets signed Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar, and…oh yeah. Max Scherzer.
- The Mariners traded a pair of prospects for Adam Frazier.
- The Rays signed Corey Kluber.
- The Twins extended Byron Buxton in a huge way.
- Avisaíl García is going to the Marlins, who extended Sandy Alcantara.
- Marcus Semien signed a large deal with the Rangers.
- Jon Gray signed a rather large deal with the Rangers.
- Corey Seager signed an enormous deal with the Rangers.
- Kevin Gausman signed a big deal with the Blue Jays.
- Robbie Ray signed a big deal with the Mariners.
- The Pirates traded Jacob Stallings to the Marlins for Zach Thompson and others.
- Atlanta is signing Kirby Yates.
I may have missed a few here. There was a lot going on. There still is a lot going on. I may have accidentally left one out that’s big enough to be mentioned, or included something below the arbitrary threshold. Overall, though, I’d like to point out a few things:
Firstly, a lot of this is coming from a few teams right before a CBA renegotiation. There’s uncertainty about what the renegotiation will lead to. Bets are being placed. The Rangers seem to be betting on these deals holding up well. The Mariners and Blue Jays seemed to want to get their guys in before the hiatus. The Mets, well, I don’t know what the Mets are doing, but they signed Max Scherzer and that’s generally a good idea.
Secondly, the Padres trading Frazier was weird. Doesn’t seem like they got a lot for him, and he’s versatile. Just odd, but not enough time to give it much time here.
Thirdly, again, the Mets. Will any of these signings hold up well? Would they if they weren’t the Mets? Will the Mets ruin Max Scherzer? There are serious reasons to ask if the Mets injure players, and the front office is certainly in turmoil. As always, it’s a big “we’ll see.” I’m surprised Scherzer went there. They must have offered him so much more money. That must be important to him. In a bigger way than I’d have guessed.
Why Aren’t the Cubs Doing Anything?
It’s frustrating for Cubs fans, yes, and it stinks to have missed out on Steven Matz in particular, though Canha was also a prospective target for a while there, before Frank Schwindel broke out. Overall, though…it isn’t that concerning. Do the Cubs need a busy offseason? Sure. But there’s plenty of unsigned free agents, and the biggest ones on the Cubs’ radar entering the offseason—Marcus Stroman, Nick Castellanos—remain unsigned. The Dodgers aren’t busy yet. The Yankees aren’t busy yet. The Red Sox and Astros aren’t busy yet. All of these teams figure to make some moves. It’s far from time to panic, even if it’s a little annoying.
But it’s more than that, too. Teams and players are each placing bets right now on how the CBA negotiations will go. Inactivity now might not only not mean inactivity overall, but might also be a bet on the CBA turning out in a way that results in more team-friendly markets after the lockout ends. Is this a good thing for the game? Probably not. But it could result in some competitive advantages for the Cubs if they are betting, and if they are betting right.
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Looking at the clock…no viewing schedule for tonight. Wow. So much going on. Sleep well, friends. Especially Notre Dame and Oklahoma friends, for whom that might not be easy.
