It was scary.
Iowa State Survives
The Cyclones won in Ames last night, avoiding disaster against a West Virginia team that nearly gave them just that. Early in the second half, Iowa State trailed by nine. Then, Izaiah Brockington.
A thing about having a one-track offense is that it’s sometimes hard to gauge how good the one track actually is. It’s being asked to do so much that balancing its efficiency with its production in one’s mind, as a fan, is tricky. This is why it’s helpful to have things like KenPom balancing the two, and showing that…Izaiah Brockington is the Big 12’s best statistical player?
It’s true. KenPom indeed says that. Brockington, then Ochai Agbaji, then Christian Braun. Now, relying on counting stats like it does, KenPom probably misses some defensive things. Evan Miyakawa’s Bayesian Performance Rating does not have Brockington in this sort of territory. But the message is nonetheless positive: If someone’s going to be taking thirty percent of your shots, you could do far worse than Izaiah Brockington.
35 points for the guard last night, not a single turnover. Only 22 field goal attempts, in the end, and with loads of support elsewhere in the offense. Against the notoriously larcenous West Virginia defense, the Cyclones only turned the ball over nine times. Tyrese Hunter registered nine assists. Gabe Kalscheur came through with his biggest night since that Texas game back in January, knocking down three threes in a 17-point performance. It was a rough night defensively, yes. West Virginia scored efficiently, twisting the knife at the foul line. It was a non-loss more than it was a win. But if you’re going to have a non-loss, what a non-loss this was, and what an encouraging night on the scoring end.
It would be nice to win on Saturday at Kansas State.
It no longer feels absolutely necessary.
Michigan Lives, Boise State Controls the Mountains, Even More Fun Than That
A lot happened last night, so let’s hit the highlights:
- In a bubble game featuring two decidedly abnormal bubble teams, Michigan held off Rutgers. A mundane result any other night, the potential halting of Rutgers’s “momentum” and the demonstration that Michigan can win without Juwan Howard on the sideline both shaped the bubble picture. How much, we don’t yet know. But there was shaping going on.
- Providence and Xavier played for a long, long time, with Providence, hilariously, improving to 3-0 in overtime games…in the last twelve days. Also on the season, but man—imagine telling a Providence fan last Saturday morning (the one a week and a half ago, to be precise) that their games were about to get even closer. At some point, is the ability to win close games predictive? A thing about college basketball is you rarely get a big enough sample to know.
- Virginia almost did it, hanging with Duke until the very end. No dice for the Cavaliers, but that would’ve really roiled the narrative vs. fundamentals element of the bracket selection.
- Kentucky survived LSU, who somehow has a losing record in the SEC. Weird season for them, too. Nice little victory for Kentucky, who remains a Contender.
- Colorado State beat Wyoming, likely handing the Mountain West crown to Boise State, who now leads the Cowboys by a game and a half with just three (four for Wyoming) to play. For Boise State, it’s a trip to Las Vegas, a visit from Nevada, and a trip to Fort Collins. For Wyoming, it’s visits from Nevada and San Diego State, then a trip to Las Vegas, then a visit from Fresno State. Still possible, but looking like Boise will end up on top in what’s been a fun ride these last two months.
- Wake Forest lost on the road to Clemson, and it wasn’t all that close, keeping the slim hopes of a one-bid ACC alive.
- Auburn handled Mississippi. Houston handled Tulane.
Tonight’s Games to Know
Among Contenders, Gonzaga and Arizona are each on the road tonight, the former playing at San Francisco and the latter paying visit to Utah. Not necessarily easy for either, but probably easy, if we’re being honest. San Francisco’s solid and it’s tough to win in Salt Lake City, but the favorites here are good enough to make those rather non-issues. Gonzaga/USF’s at 9:00 PM EST on ESPN2. Arizona/Utah’s at 11:00 PM EST on FS1.
Among Possibilities, UCLA visits Oregon (9:30 PM EST, ESPN), and it’s unclear if Tyger Campbell and/or Peyton Watson will play. Also still a little unclear how healthy Johnny Juzang is. And always unclear what kind of performance Oregon will put up.
In conference title races, we’ve got two great ones in the 9:00 PM EST slot. On FS1, Ohio State plays at Illinois, the Illini even with Purdue and Ohio State only one back in the loss column (the Buckeyes have to play games tonight, Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday, and next Sunday). On ESPNU, Belmont visits Murray State.
This latter one—Belmont/Murray State, is the most bracketologically interesting, if you want to get wonky with me for a minute. At its surface level, a two-bid OVC would seem to be reliant on Belmont beating Murray State here, getting a great win and boosting its own stock closer to the cut line, if not past it. Really, though, the OVC wants Murray State to win out until the conference tournament championship. Murray State is, despite their 26-2 record, not yet a tournament lock. That’s what happens when your best win came at Memphis. Winning tonight might lock them up, but regardless of whether it does or doesn’t, the best path to a two-bid OVC is getting Murray State in as an at-large and then having Belmont upset them in the OVC Tournament. Could the league get two bids with a Belmont win tonight? Yes, they definitely could. But I’m not sure it would actually help the overall probability.
***
Viewing schedule:
- 7:00 PM EST – Maryland @ Indiana, FS1; Indiana is knee-deep in bubble bath
- 8:00 PM EST – South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts, oruathletics dot com (it appears they have a streaming service); the over/under for this is 166.5, which is up there for the highest of the year
- 9:00 PM EST – Belmont @ Murray State, ESPNU
- 11:00 PM EST: Arizona @ Utah, FS1 (bedtime, more realistically)
