A good way to conceptualize college football’s 2024 power structure is to cut it up into four groups: In the first, you have the SEC, where Georgia has a clear edge, Texas is narrowly poised to be second-best, and then a mix of teams are clumped in those lower reaches of the likely playoff field: Mississippi. Alabama. LSU. Tennessee. Maybe Missouri, if they can keep the good thing going. In the second, you have the Big Ten, to which we’ll come back in a moment. In the third, you have the other power conference teams—the Big 12, the ACC, and Notre Dame—a group led by the Irish, Florida State, and Clemson, with Kansas State and whoever else contends in the Big 12 lying in wait but the collective ceiling rather low. In the fourth, you have the Group of Five, where debate would be too wide open to summarize nicely in this sentence.
It’s that Big Ten which is the most interesting. We know Georgia’s a national title contender. We think Texas is one too, and maybe—just maybe—Mississippi. Outside the SEC…who is it? The answers, as has grown to be the case these last few years, come from the Big Ten.
Michigan, the reigning national champions, are naturally the first place to look. But in addition to graduating the entirety of their most vital unit, that offensive line, the Wolverines have lost their head coach and their defensive coordinator to the NFL, with Jesse Minter confirming yesterday that yes, he will be joining Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers. The floor can’t be *that* low in Ann Arbor, especially with the continuity Sherrone Moore provides, but Michigan was always, in hindsight, built for the 2023 season. Things were going to need rebuilding this offseason regardless of whether Harbaugh and Minter stayed. A playoff contender? Certainly. But like Alabama, at the moment that’s all the Wolverines are.
Next, then, naturally, one’s eyes turn to Ohio State. The Buckeyes loaded up in the transfer portal, adding layers to a talent base which now might rival that of Georgia. They were already in a pretty good spot. Ohio State almost beat Michigan this season in Ann Arbor. Ohio State almost beat Georgia last season in a Playoff semifinal. That brings us back, though, to how Ryan Day is looking like an in-game liability, a concern worsened by how complicated the offensive coaching apparatus was looking even before Bill O’Brien started interviewing with Boston College. Are the Buckeyes a title contender? Yes. We can slot them right behind Georgia. But you can see how exactly it might go wrong.
Third, because this is the Big Ten, we should discuss Penn State. Penn State was good enough to win ten games by multiple possessions in 2023. Penn State did the same thing in the 2022 season, with an eleventh win by single digits in their season opener. Drew Allar had a bad first year as the starter, but he also only has two career interceptions, and the former top recruit gets a new offensive coordinator this season. The defense was elite. Penn State’s ceiling was much too firm to put them alongside Georgia and Ohio State, but is it that much of a reach to place them alongside Texas? The answer isn’t no. Texas wasn’t much better than the Nittany Lions on paper when it was all said and done. We probably aren’t making enough of Penn State’s performance in 2023, especially given it happened with an offense which couldn’t function against fellow defensive stalwarts. It’s easy to roll your eyes at it, but has there been a more promising time in recent Penn State history?
Finally, then, the newcomers. It’s rude, but we can write off Washington. There was too much transition there and the incoming result wasn’t strong enough. The ingredients are great, but in 2023? If they make the playoff, it’s been a spectacular season. And so, we come to Oregon, who brings some measure of continuity (no Bo Nix, but a lot of returning snaps), a strong overall 2023 performance (they choked against Washington, but it wouldn’t have been choking if they weren’t the better team), and a transfer portal haul right there with those headed to Oxford and Columbus. It isn’t overkill when people speculate that Oregon might be building a new powerhouse on the West Coast. If that’s the case, the Pac-12’s savior came from an unexpected division, and it came devastatingly late.
This is a long way of saying something relatively simple: With Jesse Minter’s departure confirmed, we have confirmation of our own on where the power structure lies: The clear challengers to Georgia’s assumed throne next fall are probably still two Big Ten teams. But instead of it being Michigan and Ohio State, it’s Ohio State and Oregon. For now, that mid-October game in Eugene is the big one.
The NCAA Didn’t Win That Lawsuit
In what came across as a big surprise, given the NCAA’s recent performance in court cases, Virginia and Tennessee’s attorneys general were not granted the temporary restraining order they requested against the NCAA. The NCAA can continue with their punishment of Tennessee, for now. But this was not the trial. The trial has a long, long way to go.
The Rest
College basketball, including Iowa State:
- It was a great win in Austin for the Cyclones, who nearly gave it back in the second half but did not give it back in the second half. As Stu pointed out yesterday, the Longhorns haven’t been great this year at home, but road wins are what it takes to win the Big 12, Iowa State did not get these kinds of road wins last year at this time, and while there’s plenty of season to go, the Cyclones remain just half a game out of first place, with a more manageable weekend game this Saturday than either of the teams they’re tied with in the loss column.
- UNC is trappable. Not so much offensively as in terms of in trap games. The gap between UNC’s ceiling and UNC’s average performance is maddening, and has been for the entire Hubert Davis era. I don’t know if that’s Davis or if it’s the core Davis inherited (see: Bacot, Armando, though he had a good game last night), but it’s something to watch with this team, and while it jeopardizes their ACC regular season title chances, it points towards being bullish on them in the NCAA Tournament.
- Alabama’s trip to Auburn is key. We wrote on Monday about The SEC Three. This is Alabama’s chance to break away from the pack. This is Auburn’s chance to try to make it look more like The SEC Two. It’s going to be loud and nasty on the Plains. SEC basketball has grown outrageously this last decade.
Chicago:
- Coby White and DeMar DeRozan scored all but nine of the Bulls’ 46 points last night in the fourth quarter and overtime. DeRozan assisted on seven of the nine the pair didn’t score. The recipe remains capable of competing in the Play-In Tournament, and given how unlikely it is that this front office would make good trades or do productive things with good assets acquired in trades, maybe we should all just come around on the idea of the Bulls playing to win two Play-In Tournament games. Until someone successfully bankrupts Jerry Reinsdorf with a phishing link and convinces him to sell. (It’s worth reiterating: The NBA has a problem in that it’s incentivizing a team like the Bulls to sell every player. The smart thing for the Bulls to do would be to sell DeRozan, Alex Caruso, Andre Drummond, and even White—sell high. All while in playoff contention. Terrible incentives. Much bigger issue than load management.)
- The Blackhawks are back in action tonight after the All-Star Break. They’ll host the Wild at home. Still no Connor Bedard in the lineup, but he’s doing more and more at practice as he comes back from the broken jaw.
